Review Article Loyalist Assassinations and Police Collusion in Northern Ireland: An Extended Critique of Sean McPhilemy's The Committee

Since 1995 Dr. Brendan O'Shea, a former European Union Monitor, has been studying developments in the Balkans with his predictive article, Kosovo—Another Bosnia in the Making, awarded the Seamus Kelly Literary Award in Ireland. Nine years after NATO troops first deployed in Bosnia, and five years after KFOR commenced operations in Kosovo, he once again examines the overall situation in the region and is ill at ease with his findings.     

Expatriate Games: Interorganizational Coordination and International Counterterrorism

In America, Britain and Australia the threat of terrorism has been used to justify radical new legislation that gives police and intelligence agencies unprecedented powers to detain and question people believed to have information connected to terrorism. In this paper I explore the nature of the threat of non-state terrorism—threat to national security and the well-being of citizens. I argue that terrorism does not pose a threat sufficient to justify the kinds of counterterrorism legislation currently being enacted. Furthermore many of the current counterterrorism practices pose a greater threat to individual physical security and well-being than non-state terrorism. We should fear counterterrorism more than we fear terrorism.     

Betting on the Future with a Cloudy Crystal Ball? How Financial Theory Can Improve Revenue Forecasting and Budgets in the States

Accurately predicting revenue growth is nearly impossible. Predicting the peaks and valleys of the business cycle is even more hopeless. This matters because tax revenues are largely driven by economic growth. Volatile, unpredictable revenue growth causes all sorts of unpleasant responses on the part of governments, most commonly manic-depressive patterns of spending and taxing. Fortunately, modern financial economics gives us a set of tools that can be used to manage volatility. This article shows how such tools can be used to inform fiscal decision making. The focus here is state governments, but the analysis applies to all jurisdictions that face hard budget constraints and therefore must balance spending increases against revenue growth.     

The Violence of Persuasive Argument: Using Durkheim to Outline a Latent Barrier to a Nonviolent Criminology

The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of a form of violence that represents a potential barrier to the development of a nonviolent criminology. Using several contentions drawn from Emile Durkheim’s theory of crime and punishment, it is proposed that persuasive arguments entail a component of violence where they contradict strong collective sentiments. The general nature and normality of this form of violence are outlined. In addition, it is suggested that although neglect of this violence may allow progressive researchers to maintain nonviolent self-conceptions, such neglect also may serve the interests of “intellectuals” while undermining the power of “nonintellectuals.” The violence of persuasive argument thus constitutes a problematic paradox for scholars who embrace nonviolence and equitable distributions of power.

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Joint match probabilities for Y chromosomal and autosomal markers

Empirical tests of association between Y chromosome and autosomal markers are presented and a theoretical framework for determining a joint match probability is recommended. Statistical analyses of association were performed in 16 US populations between the autosomal genotypes from loci CSF1PO, FGA, THO1, TPOX, vWA, D3S1358, D5S818, D7S820, D8S1179, D13S317, D16S539, D18S512, D21S11 and Y chromosome haplotypes from loci DYS19, DYS385ab, DYS389I, DYS389II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DYS393, DYS438, and DYS439. The sample populations include individuals of European-, African-, Hispanic-, Native-, and Asian-American ancestry. The results are consistent with independence of Y and autosomal markers, although small amounts of dependence would likely have escaped our tests. Given the data in hand, we suggest it is appropriate to compute joint match probabilities by multiplying the Y haplotype frequency with the appropriately corrected autosomal frequency. In addition to correcting for autosomal frequency differences between groups, a further correction may be required. Since two individuals sharing the same Y haplotype are likely to be more recently related than two randomly chosen individuals, the autosomal frequencies have to be adjusted to account for this, akin to the theta correction used to account for population substructure. The structure imposed on the autosomal frequencies conditioned in a Y match is a function of the number of markers scored and their mutation rate. However, in most settings theta<0.01. When population structure is already present in the autosomes, the additional effect due to conditioning on the Y is small. For example, if the amount of structure in the population is theta=0.01 or 0.03 (the NRCII range), then the effect of conditioning on the Y results in only a trivial increase in theta to 0.02-0.04, respectively.