Chinese nationalism,Taiwan autonomy and the prospects of a larger war

In contrast to the belief that the 1995–1996 Taiwan Straits crisis was caused by the visit of the President of Taiwan to Cornell University, in fact, the post‐Mao ruling groups in Beijing made forcing early reunification with mainland China on Taiwan a top priority soon after assuming power in 1978. This new focus on Taiwan's reunification reflects a policy switch. It is not a continuation of Mao era policies. The switch is basic. It involves a profound change in the content of Chinese nationalism from Mao era nationalism, which is seen by its critics in China as insufficiently promoting the national interests of the Chinese people. The new, post‐Mao nationalism in China not only challenges Taiwan's autonomy, it also could endanger peace in the Pacific‐Asia region. Consequently, it is important to rethink the political dynamics at work in China and in the region if the parties involved hope to avoid a larger war.     

A Classification Tree Approach to the Development of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment Tools

Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.     

Rejoinder to comments by Frederick Kaijage,Oswald Masebo,and Innocent Pikirayi on the keynote speech, ‘writing history: flow and blockage in the circulation of knowledge’

ABSTRACT

Rejoinder to comments by Frederick Kaijage, Oswald Masebo, and Innocent Pikirayi on the keynote speech, ‘Writing History: Flow and Blockage in the Circulation of Knowledge’     

The “dark figure” and composite indexes of crime: Some empirical explorations of alternative data sources

This paper compares composite crime indexes across two alternative data sources—the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and the National Crime Survey (NCS). A variety of indexes are constructed based on weights derived from Sellin and Wolfgang's “seriousness” scale. The results reveal that indexes weighted by offense seriousness are not very highly correlated across data sources for a sample of twenty-six American cities. The substantive importance of the discrepancies between UCR and NCS estimates is illustrated by examining the ecological correlates of weighted crime rates for the twenty-six city sample and by assessing changes in weighted crime rates at the national level for the 1973-81 period. The results also reveal that if estimates of homecide are included in the composite indexes by supplementing the NCS data with data from the Center for Health Statistics, then under certain weighting conditions the correlations across data sources are nearly perfect. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of this latter finding for the measurement of overall levels of criminal activity and for the scaling of the relative gravity of different offenses.     

Expanded School Mental Health: Challenges and Opportunities in an Emerging Field

Reviews the need for and development of expanded school mental health (ESMH) programs, which provide a continuum of mental health promotion and intervention through school–community partnerships. Since ESMH is a relatively new, but increasingly prominent field, countless issues are being addressed in practice and research and in efforts to bridge practice and research. We review particular content and context dimensions of ESMH in need of development including quality assessment and improvement, empirically supported practice, improving assessment and outcome evaluation, involving educators in the work, understanding school environments, and tailoring programs through qualitative research. Summaries of articles that amplify these themes are provided.     

Child murder committed by severely mentally III mothers: an examination of mothers found not guilty by reason of insanity. 2005 Honorable Mention/Richard Rosner Award for the best paper by a fellow in forensic psychiatry or forensic psychology

Forensic hospital records of 39 severely mentally ill mothers adjudicated Not Guilty by Reason of Insanity for filicide (child murder by parents) were analyzed to describe characteristics preceding this tragedy and to suggest prevention strategies. Almost three-quarters of the mothers (72%) had previous mental health treatment. Over two thirds (69%) of the mothers were experiencing auditory hallucinations, most frequently command hallucinations, and half (49%) were depressed at the time of the offense. Over one third (38%) of the filicides occurred during pregnancy or the postpartum period, and many had a history of postpartum psychosis. Almost three-quarters (72%) of the mothers had experienced considerable developmental stressors, such as death of their own mother or incest. Maternal motives for filicide were predominantly "altruistic" (meaning murder out of love) or "acutely psychotic" (occurring in the throes of psychosis, without rational motive). Psychiatrists should perform careful risk assessments for filicide in mothers with mental illnesses.     

A Re-examination of the Effects of Biased Lineup Instructions in Eyewitness Identification

A meta-analytic review of research comparing biased and unbiased instructions in eyewitness identification experiments showed an asymmetry; specifically, that biased instructions led to a large and consistent decrease in accuracy in target-absent lineups, but produced inconsistent results for target-present lineups, with an average effect size near zero (Steblay, 1997). The results for target-present lineups are surprising, and are inconsistent with statistical decision theories (i.e., Green & Swets, 1966). A re-examination of the relevant studies and the meta-analysis of those studies shows clear evidence that correct identification rates do increase with biased lineup instructions, and that biased witnesses make correct identifications at a rate considerably above chance. Implications for theory, as well as police procedure and policy, are discussed.