Bargaining and Fighting: The Impact of Regime Type on War Onset, Duration, and Outcomes

Recent research suggests that democracies have advantages and disadvantages in wars. Democracies are more likely to win the wars they initiate and the ones in which they are targeted. Wars initiated by democracies are also uniformly shorter and less costly than wars initiated by nondemocracies. However, democracies are also less likely to continue fighting and less likely to win as war drags on. Democracies are also particularly likely to be targeted. We present a bargaining model that reconciles these divergent findings. The model explains why democracies are more likely to win but are also more likely to settle and more likely to be targeted than other types of regimes. The model's explanation of these facts differs in important ways from existing explanations. The model also suggests several new hypotheses relating regime type to the terms of settlement and the onset of war .     

The social maps of children approaching adolescence: Studying the ecology of youth development

This article reports the first results of the three-year longitudinal study of the social maps of children beginning the transition to adolescence. This exploratory study is guided by Bronfenbrenner's conception of the ecology of human development, stressing the importance of a phenomenological orientation to development in the context of ecological transitions. The study focuses on characteristics of children's social networks (the web of relationships in which the individual is involved) as a function of neighborhood type, socioeconomic status, and level of physical maturation. The social heterogeneity of the social network (e.g., the relative salience of peers versus adults) is a primary concern. The child's and parent's perceptions of the network, of the people available to help the child, and the child's friends are compared within the context of ecological, socioeconomic, and maturational factors. The results (for 111 sixth-grade children from three contrasting neighborhood schools) shed some light on age segregation and the overall heterogeneity of the social environments of children facing the transition to adolescence. They provide a context and a baseline for the longitudinal study.A version of this paper was presented at the 85th annual convention of the American Psychological Association, San Francisco, August 25–30, 1977.Received his Ph.D. in human development and family studies from Cornell University in 1973. Principal interests are the ecology of social development and child maltreatment.     

Long- and short-term risk factors in the prediction of inpatient suicide: review of the literature

The prediction of suicide remains a major challenge for health care professionals in inpatient settings. A clearer identification of factors specific to inpatient suicide is required to improve both practice and research within this area. This paper provides an overview of the inpatient suicide literature to date focusing on two particularly salient themes: Long term and short term prediction of suicide. Since the concept of short-term suicide risk dominates clinical practice, issues in relation to dynamic risk factors are emphasized.     

Predicting violent behavior in stalkers: a preliminary investigation of Canadian cases in criminal harassment.

This study examined the factors associated with violent/aggressive behavior in stalkers using a sample of 100 Canadian cases of persons charged with criminal harassment (more commonly known as stalking). Results revealed that the typical profile of a "simple obsessional" type of stalker was a middle-aged male, single or separated/estranged, with a history of emotional and/or anger management problems. The most common initial strategies used by the victims to cope with the stalkers were oriented towards legal resources. Initial legal remedies, including court orders or police warnings, seemed to be ineffective as a strategy to stop stalking given that most stalkers chose to ignore them. The study also provided partial support for a preliminary model of predictors of violent/aggressive behavior in stalkers. Stalkers with previous violent behaviors, strong negative emotions. and obsessional tendencies toward the victim may be most at risk of future violent and aggressive acts.     

Differentiating between physically violent and nonviolent stalkers: an examination of Canadian cases

This study is one of a few that empirically investigated factors that differentiated the physically violent stalker from the nonviolent stalker. Using discriminant analysis, 103 Canadian cases of "simple obsessional" stalking were examined. Overall, the success of the model for classifying cases into one of two groups was 81%. Results revealed that the physically violent stalker is more likely to: (a) have a stronger previous emotional attachment toward their victim; (b) be more highly fixated/obsessed with their victim; (c) have a higher degree of perceived negative affect towards their victim; (d) engage in more verbal threats toward the victim; and (e) have a history of battering/domestic abuse towards the victim. Overall, the variables that best differentiate the physically violent stalker from the nonviolent one appear to characterize underlying themes of anger, vengeance, emotional arousal, humiliation, projection of blame, and insecure attachment pathology.