Differences in the predictive validity of actuarial risk assessments in relation to sex offender type

This study seeks to expand on the previously reported validity of the Static-99, RRASOR, MnSOST-R, and SORAG in predicting sexual recidivism utilizing a regional sample of offenders. The predictive validity of each test was determined utilizing subgroups of the sample based on each offender's known offense history. The effectiveness of each instrument varied depending on offender type. The Static-99 and SORAG were both significantly predictive of sexual, violent, and any recidivism for extra-familial child molesters, and all four tests were predictive of violent or any recidivism in this subgroup. For incest offenders, all four tests were at least moderately predictive of sexual recidivism, whereas the Static-99 and the SORAG were highly predictive of violent or any recidivism. None of the four tests established consistent predictive validity across recidivism categories in regard to rapists or hands-off offenders, however, the Static-99 and the SORAG were significant in terms of sexual recidivism.     

Chairman reappointments,presidential elections and policy actions of the federal reserve

A number of recent studies have analyzed whether there is a political influence on monetary policy, focusing primarily on whether monetary policy becomes easier just prior to elections. In addition to exploring whether there exists an election period cycle in monetary policy, this article explores the existence of another political influence on policy. Following up on some recent anecdotal evidence provided by John T. Woolley, this article explores whether incumbent FED chairmen have succeeded in influencing monetary policy in order to improve their reappointment chances. The analysis, which spans the administrations of seven U.S. presidents and four FED chairmen, finds no conclusive evidence that FED policy changes systematically either before elections or chairman reappointment dates. The analysis has implications for the issue of rules versus discretion in monetary policy.     

On the challenge of unambiguous identification of fentanyl analogs: Exploring measurement diversity using standard reference mass spectral libraries

Fentanyl analogs are a class of designer drugs that are particularly challenging to unambiguously identify due to the mass spectral and retention time similarities of unique compounds. In this paper, we use agglomerative hierarchical clustering to explore the measurement diversity of fentanyl analogs and better understand the challenge of unambiguous identifications using analytical techniques traditionally available to drug chemists. We consider four measurements in particular: gas chromatography retention indices, electron ionization mass spectra, electrospray ionization tandem mass spectra, and direct analysis in real time mass spectra. Our analysis demonstrates how simultaneously considering data from multiple measurement techniques increases the observable measurement diversity of fentanyl analogs, which can reduce identification ambiguity. This paper further supports the use of multiple analytical techniques to identify fentanyl analogs (among other substances), as is recommended by the Scientific Working Group for the Analysis of Seized Drugs (SWGDRUG).     

The media,civil society and democracy in South Africa: State of the Nation Address 2015

This article reports on an investigation into the events surrounding the State of the Nation Address in 2015 (SONA2015), during which opposition party members interrupted proceedings to raise questions about the controversial R208-million security upgrade to South African President Jacob Zuma's personal homestead, Nkandla, in KwaZulu-Natal, using public funds. The event raised issues about the constitutionality of the use of police in the National Assembly; the use of cell phone blocking devices; and the fact that television broadcasters were not allowed to broadcast the events as they happened. The investigation drew on a quantitative content analysis of print media coverage of SONA2015, as well as qualitative interviews with members of the Right2Know (R2 K) campaign in Cape Town and Durban. It explored their activities to “take back Parliament” and calling for a “people's Parliament”. At the core of the investigation was the role of civil society in the media-politics nexus with regard to strengthening democracy and democratic participation in South Africa, through an exploration of the case study.     

Conduct Problem Trajectories Between Age 4 and 17 and Their Association with Behavioral Adjustment in Emerging Adulthood

Individual heterogeneity exists in the onset and development of conduct problems, but theoretical claims about predictors and prognosis are often not consistent with the empirical findings. This study examined shape and outcomes of conduct problem trajectories in a Belgian population-based sample (N = 682; 49.5 % boys). Mothers reported on children’s conduct problems across six waves (age 4–17) and emerging adults reported on their behavioral adjustment (age 17–20). Applying mixture modeling, we found four gender-invariant trajectories (labeled life-course-persistent, adolescence-onset, childhood-limited, and low). The life-course-persistent group was least favorably adjusted, but the adolescence-onset group was similarly maladjusted in externalizing problems and may be less normative (15 % of the sample) than previously believed. The childhood-limited group was at heightened risk for specifically internalizing problems, being more worrisome than its label suggests. Interventions should not only be aimed at early detection of conduct problems, but also at adolescents to avoid future maladjustment.     

‘There is no racism here’: public discourses on racism,immigrants and integration in Denmark

ABSTRACT

Jensen, Weibel and Vitus's article critically discusses contemporary Danish policies aimed at the elimination of ethnoracial discrimination, drawing on policy analyses and qualitative interviews with local and national authorities in Denmark. It illustrates how questions of discrimination and racism are marginalized and de-legitimized within the dominant integration discourse, resulting in the marginalization of anti-racism in policymaking. The side-stepping of racism is being naturalized in public policies through strategies of denial and by addressing discrimination as a product of ignorance and individual prejudice rather than as embedded in social structures. The authors examine how immigration, integration and (anti-)racism as concepts and phenomena are understood and addressed in Danish public policies and discourses. Despite denials of racism in Denmark, Jensen, Weibel and Vitus show that, based on re-definitions of identities and relations, it continues to exist and is evident in public debates and policies on immigration and integration.     

Varieties of Participation in Public Services: The Who, When, and What of Coproduction

Despite an international resurgence of interest in coproduction, confusion about the concept remains. This article attempts to make sense of the disparate literature and clarify the concept of coproduction in public administration. Based on some definitional distinctions and considerations about who is involved in coproduction, when in the service cycle it occurs, and what is generated in the process, the article offers and develops a typology of coproduction that includes three levels (individual, group, collective) and four phases (commissioning, design, delivery, assessment). The levels, phases, and typology as a whole are illustrated with several examples. The article concludes with a discussion of implications for research and practice.