The General on his Journeys. Augusto Pinochet’s International Trips and Diverging Transnational Justice and Memory Agendas in the Aftermath of the Cold War

Augusto Pinochet, comandante-en-jefe of the Chilean Army, was an avid global traveller in the 1990s. As the former military dictator had developed into a potent symbol of Cold War anti-communism, authoritarianism, and market radicalism, his trips across Latin America, East Asia, Southern Africa, continental Europe, and to the United Kingdom usually made a great stir. This article looks at public reactions, political debates, and legal consequences that were caused by Pinochet’s appearance. It argues that different attitudes towards the Chilean visitor reflected how local groups positioned and envisioned themselves in the transformative period around 1989. Drawing on documents from the Chilean Foreign Ministry, interviews with Chilean generals, and newspaper coverage from four continents, it demonstrates that many anti-communists as well as liberal economists did not see Pinochet as a representative of a criminal past. Rather, his “Chilean model” had become a source of legitimacy of an authoritarian path of modernisation.     

The impact of preferential trade agreements on governmental repression revisited

Previous research suggests that most treaties are ineffective in ensuring countries’ compliance with human rights standards. It has been argued, however, that preferential trade agreements (PTAs) including ‘hard’ human rights standards can withhold economic benefits and, thus, can have a real potential to substantially reduce human rights violations. The following article questions this as existent work on the effects of PTAs on human rights standards neglects a selection process underlying the implementation of these treaties. Countries being aware of the ‘shadow of the future’ already take into account what may happen at the succeeding enforcement stage when establishing a particular PTA. This implies that states agree on ‘hard’ human rights standards in PTAs only if they have a general propensity to abide by human rights in the first place. For testing the empirical implications of their argument, the authors collected new data on PTAs in 1976/77-2009, and employ genetic matching techniques. The results support the theoretical argument that PTAs are unlikely to affect human rights compliance when controlling for the outlined selection problem.     

The Rebirth of Water as a Weapon: IS in Syria and Iraq

The so-called Islamic State (IS) has increasingly used water as a weapon in order to further its political and military aims in Syria and Iraq. In this water-scarce region, IS has retained water and cut off crucial supplies, flooded large areas as well as contaminated resources. The capture of large dams in the Euphrates and Tigris basin has made it possible to deploy the water weapon even more effectively and in a frequent, systematic, consistent and flexible manner. Measures to counter this weaponisation effectively have been limited to military means. However, several internal constraints create a dilemma for IS as its state-building ambitions conflict with the consequences of the weaponisation of water. The rebirth of using the water weapon in Syria and Iraq raises questions about protecting water infrastructures in conflict and post-conflict settings.     

The Microfoundations of Diversionary Conflict

Diversionary conflict theorists assert that leaders can become more popular at home by pursuing conflict abroad. At first glance this claim appears counterintuitive in light of the hardship conflict often imposes on ordinary citizens. Relying on social identity theory (SIT), I deduce two hypotheses to help explain why conflict can increase popular support for leaders. First, conflict with an outgroup can make people identify more strongly with their ingroup. Second, stronger ingroup identification can lead to increased support for leaders inside the group. The second part of the article applies these two hypotheses to Russia's seizure of Crimea in early 2014. Attitude surveys show that the Crimea conflict increased national pride among Russians while support for President Vladimir Putin rose dramatically, and they suggest that the two processes were causally linked. These findings support the article's two hypotheses.     

When women disappear from the labour market: occupational status of Dutch women at marriage in a modernizing society, 1865–1922

Between 1865 and 1922 the labour force participation of women at marriage dropped considerably in the Netherlands. At the same time, girls' educational participation increased and egalitarian gender values started to spread. We expect these developments to have affected the occupational status of those women who stayed in the labour market. Using a large dataset of Dutch marriages and municipal-level information on female labour force participation, educational participation, and an indicator of gender values, we show that women's status dropped until around 1885 and then started to rise. The retreat of women from the labour market coincided with a decline in the status of the women who remained, whereas, especially after 1900, the increasing educational participation of girls and the dissemination of egalitarian gender values counteracted this trend by causing women's status to rise.     

Individual Differences in the Deterrence Process: Which Individuals Learn (Most) from Their Offending Experiences?

Objectives

To test whether individuals differ in deterrability by studying whether the effect of criminal experiences on perceived detection risk varies by criminal propensity.

Methods

Data from the British “Offending, Crime and Justice Survey”, a four-wave panel study on criminal behavior and victimization, are analyzed. Two subsamples for analyses are constructed: one of non-offenders at first measurement, to analyze the effect of gaining first offending experiences during the time of study (n = 1,279) and one sample of individuals who have committed offenses within the past year (n = 567), to analyze the effect of police contact among active offenders. Fixed-effects regressions of perceived detection risk on criminal experiences and interactions between criminal experiences and measures of criminal propensity (risk-affinity, impulsivity) are estimated.

Results

Analyses support learning models for the formation and change of risk perceptions, but individual differences by criminal propensity are present in the deterrence process: After gaining first offending experiences, impulsive individuals as well as risk-averse individuals are more likely to lower their perceptions about the probability of detection than less impulsive or risk-affine individuals are. A positive effect of police contact on expected detection risk is restricted to risk-averse individuals.

Conclusions

Findings support claims that deterrence works differently for crime-prone individuals. The differential effects of impulsivity and risk-affinity underline the importance of not combining constituent characteristics of criminal propensity in composite indices, because they might have differential effects on deterrence.