How Smart Is my Dummy? Time Series Tests for the Influence of Politics

Kevin Grier Department of Economics, 335 Hester Hall, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019 e-mail: angus{at}ou.edu Of necessity, many tests for political influence on policiesor outcomes involve the use of dummy variables. However, itis often the case that the hypothesis against which the politicaldummies are tested is the null hypothesis that the interceptis otherwise constant throughout the sample. This simple nullcan cause inference problems if there are (nonpolitical) interceptshifts in the data and the political dummies are correlatedwith these unmodeled shifts. Here we present a method for morerigorously testing the significance of political dummy variablesin single equation models estimated with time series data. Ourmethod is based on recent work on detecting multiple regimeshifts by Bai and Perron. The article illustrates the potentialproblem caused by an overly simple null hypothesis, expositsthe Bai and Perron model, gives a proposed methodology for testingthe significance of political dummy variables, and illustratesthe method with two examples.

Before the curse of statisticsfell upon mankind we lived a happy, innocent life —HilaireBelloc, On Statistics

     

THE IMAGE OF THE PUBLIC ADMINISTRATOR IN AUSTRALIA*

After the recent Federal elections, I am more confident in saying that I do not always believe the polls. In this instance, I have the feeling that the image of public administrators in Australia is probably worse than the surveys indicated. The latest bumper bar sticker in Canberra reads: “Fight inflation, run over a public servant today”. The Australian is running a series of articles critical of the size, efficiency and effectiveness of public services. The cup-of-tea image is a popular one and kick-a-public-servant-today has every possibility of developing into a national sport; the “fat cat” image has caught on.     

Beyond Engagement and Participation: User and Community Coproduction of Public Services

In recent years, there has been a radical reinterpretation of the role of policy making and service delivery in the public domain. Policy making is no longer seen as a purely top-down process but rather as a negotiation among many interacting policy systems. Similarly, services are no longer simply delivered by professional and managerial staff in public agencies but are coproduced by users and their communities. This article presents a conceptual framework for understanding the emerging role of user and community coproduction and presents several case studies that illustrate how different forms of coproduction have played out in practice. Traditional conceptions of service planning and management are now outdated and need to be revised to account for coproduction as an integrating mechanism and an incentive for resource mobilization—a potential that is still greatly underestimated. However, coproduction in the context of multipurpose, multistakeholder networks raises important public governance issues that have implications for public services reform.     

Understanding China and Its Role in the World

Mr. President, Ambassador, everyone, ladies and gentlemen,it is a great pleasure to be with you here at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies. Thank you, Mr. President for such     

Intellectual disability in a prison population with anger problems in Trinidad

This paper describes the characteristics of groups of prisoners selected to take part in an anger management programme in prisons in Trinidad. Participants completed demographic measures, an IQ assessment, mental health measures and anger rating scales. Fifty-six inmates were screened with the WASI-2 and characteristics of this group are explored in this paper. The mean IQ for the group was 72.34 and 22 had a recorded IQ below 70 (37.5%). All of the respondents reported high levels of mental health problems with their mean ratings on the SCL-90 being closer to those of inpatient psychiatric group norms than non-clinical groups. A score of less than 70 on the WASI-2 is not sufficient for a diagnosis of an Intellectual Disability. Nevertheless, the results suggest that a significant number of individuals in these prisons may have an Intellectual Disability. More research is needed to help identify these individuals and provide support.