Questions,propositions and assessing different levels of evidence: Forensic voice comparison in practice

This paper contributes to the ongoing discussion about the distinction between observations and propositions in forensic inference, with a specific focus on forensic voice comparison casework conducted in the UK. We outline both linguistic and legal issues which make the evaluation of voice evidence and the refinement of propositions problematic in practice, and illustrate these using case examples. We will argue that group-level observations from the offender sample will always be evidential and that the value of this evidence must be determined by the expert. As such, a proposal is made that experts should, at least conceptually, think of voice evidence as having two levels, both with evidential value: group-level and individual-level. The two rely on different underlying assumptions, and the group-level observations can be used to inform the individual-level propositions. However, for the sake of interpretability, it is probably preferable to present only one combined conclusion to the end user. We also wish to reiterate points made in previous work: in providing conclusions, the forensic expert must acknowledge that the value of the evidence is dependent on a number of assumptions (propositions and background information) and these assumptions must be made clear and explicit to the user.     

Partner similarity for self-reported antisocial behaviour among married,cohabiting and dating couples: the Generation R Study

Abstract

From a criminological perspective, romantic relationships are supposed to decrease the risk of antisocial behaviour (Laub, Nagin, & Sampson, American Sociological Review, 63, 225–238, 1998). However, the effects of these relationships probably depend on the romantic partner's behaviour. In the current study we examined partner similarity for antisocial behaviour in an ethnically heterogeneous community sample of 4135 married, cohabiting and dating couples from Rotterdam, the Netherlands, using self-reports. Spousal correlations were consistently positive for antisocial behaviour but differed in strength according to the type of antisocial behaviour. Associations between spouses remained strong after adjusting for age and educational level depending on the type of antisocial behaviour. In addition, antisocial behaviour was positively associated between partners across marital status and ethnicity, but the strength of this association varied to some extent. Results are discussed in light of the phenotypic assortment, the socialization and the social homogamy hypotheses.     

From Ahogado to Zorrillo: external causes of mortality in the California missions

The history of grandparents is too often founded on a demographic prejudice, that is, the very low statistical possibility of children having known their grandparents before the rise in life expectancy in the twentieth century. On the basis of a sample of several thousand children bom in the region of Vernon (Normandy) at the end of the eighteenth and the beginning of the nineteenth century, the article contests this idea and shows that newborns knew about half of their grandparents, with a slight advantage on the grandmothers' side. Inequalities were present between elder and younger siblings, but the latter also profited from the presence of their forbears. Consequently, the study of the different functions served by grandparents in the traditional family should be pursued, and questions should be raised about the contemporary concept of “new grandparents” by separating it from the demographic assumption on which it is based.     

The third wave: mixed migration from Zimbabwe to South Africa

Migration from Zimbabwe has recently been described as an archetypal form of “mixed migration” in which refugees and migrants are indistinguishable from one another. This paper argues that such a state-centred understanding of mixed migration oversimplifies a far more complex reality and fails to adequately account for the changing nature of Zimbabwean out-migration. Based on data from three separate Southern African Migration Programme (SAMP) surveys undertaken in 1997, 2005 and 2010 at key moments of transition, the paper shows how the form and character of mixed migration from the country has changed over time. The country’s emigration experience since 1990 is divided into three periods or “waves”. The third wave (roughly from 2005 onwards) has seen a major shift away from circular, temporary migration of individual working-age adults towards greater permanence and more family and child migration to South Africa. Zimbabwean migrants no longer see South Africa as a place of temporary economic opportunity for survival but rather as a place to stay and build a future for themselves and their families.     

Argument Repertoire as a Reliable and Valid Measure of Opinion Quality: Electronic Dialogue During Campaign 2000

A new measure of opinion quality that we name "argument repertoire" (AR) is introduced and evaluated. AR refers to the relevant reasons that one has for one's own opinions and the relevant reasons that others with opposite opinions might have. The measure is shown to be reliable and to have construct validity. Those with elevated AR also were more likely to attend on-line deliberative groups during the presidential election and to contribute to those conversations. Those who participated in online deliberations tended to have higher AR scores on particular issues that were discussed. The role of AR in deliberative political groups is explored.     

The Italian budgetary process: Political and institutional constraints

The Italian budgetary process requires constant interaction between executive and legislature. As a result budgetary policy is a reflection of Italian legislative activity in general. Time‐consuming negotiations and compromises are required between a wide range of political interests. Coherent and consistent economic policy‐making is, in these circumstances, difficult to achieve.     

Politics without a centre

The Retreat of the State: The Diffusion of Power in the World Economy. By SUSAN STRANGE. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996. Pp.xvii + 218, biblio., index. £14.95 (paper). ISBN 0–521–56440–9.

Uncertain Boundaries: The Social and Political Construction of European Economies. By MARINO REGINI. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995. Pp.x + 164, biblio., index. £30 (cloth). ISBN 0–521–47371–3

Internationalization and Domestic Politics. Edited by ROBERT O. KEOHANE and HELEN V. MILNER. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996. Pp. x + 308, biblio., index. £14.95 (paper). ISBN 0–521–565587–1.

Balancing State Intervention: The Limits of Transatlantic Markets. Edited by ROGER BENJAMIN, C. RICHARD NEU and DENISE QUIGLEY. Pp. xiv + 274, index. Houndmills: Macmillan, 1995. £40 (cloth). ISBN 0–333–64162–0.

Cash, Crisis, and Corporate Governance: The Role of National Financial Systems in Industrial Restructuring. By VICTORIA MARKLEW. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1995. Pp.viii +260, biblio, index. $44.40 (cloth). ISBN 0–472–10504–3.