Social Security and Taxation: A Note on Some Intellectual Foundations of Social Security and Taxation

This note offers a short summary of intellectual roots of social security and taxation as institutions. The emphasis is on very basic ideas, spanning a bridge from the German historical school to recent French thought. The purpose is, of course, to show the breadth of intellectual options.     

From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2010 British general election

This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.     

How to scale coded text units without bias: A response to Gemenis

Coding non-manifesto documents as if they were genuine policy platforms produced at election time clearly raises serious issues with error when these codings are used in the standard manner to estimate left-right policy positions. In addition to the long term solution of improving the document base of the Manifesto Project identified by Gemenis (2012), we argue that immediate gains in manifesto-based estimates of policy positions can be realised by using the confrontational logit scales from Lowe et al. (2011), which addresses the problems of scale content and scale construction that are exacerbated by but not unique to the problems found in proxy documents.     

Small farm improvement strategies—the implications of a computer simulation study of indigenous farming in south‐east Ghana

This paper outlines the methodology and findings of a village level farm management study in South‐east Ghana. A linear programming model is used to investigate the production response of farmers to the introduction of mechanisation, crop technology and credit innovations. The results are presented and their research, extension and policy implications are discussed. It is considered that the results support the argument for undertaking detailed farm level studies in order to understand the nature of existing farming systems as a basis for assessing the possibilities for their improvement. The results also suggest that the present states of technical knowledge and research orientation are biased in favour of the better‐off farmers and, as such, do not provide a suitable basis for recommendations consistent with equality, which governments profess to be their objective.     

What Stops the Torture?

States whose agents engage in torture in a given year have a 93% chance of continuing to torture in the following year. What leads governments to stop the use of torture? We focus on the principal–agent relationship between the executive and the individuals responsible for supervising and interrogating state prisoners. We argue that some liberal democratic institutions change the probability that leaders support the creation of institutions that discourage jailers and interrogators from engaging in torture, thus increasing the probability of a state terminating its use of torture. These relationships are strongly conditioned by the presence of violent dissent; states rarely terminate the use of torture when they face a threat. Once campaigns of violent dissent stop, however, states with popular suffrage and a free press are considerably more likely to terminate their use of torture. Also given the end of violent dissent, the greater the number of veto points in government, the lower the likelihood that a state terminates its use of torture.     

What Happens the Morning After? The Costs and Benefits of Expanding Access to Emergency Contraception

Emergency contraception (EC) can prevent pregnancy after sex, but only if taken within 72 hours of intercourse. Over the past 15 years, access to EC has been expanded at both the state and federal level. This paper studies the impact of those policies. We find that expanded access to EC has had no statistically significant effect on birth or abortion rates. Expansions of access, however, have changed the venue in which the drug is obtained, shifting its provision from hospital emergency departments to pharmacies. We find evidence that this shift may have led to a decrease in reports of sexual assault.     

13C4-secobarbital as the internal standard for the quantitative determination of secobarbital--a critical evaluation

In this study, 13C4-secobarbital was used as an exemplar compound to illustrate the mechanism based on which the effectiveness of a proposed internal standard (IS) could be evaluated. A deuterated analog, 2H5-secobarbital, was also studied in parallel for comparison purposes. Well-established solid-phase extraction and methylation procedures were used prior to the GC/MS measurement step. The contribution of the intensity of an ion designated for the analyte (secobarbital) by the proposed IS, and similarly, the contribution of the intensity of an ion designated for the IS by the analyte--a phenomenon termed "cross-contribution"-were evaluated based on a "direct measurement" procedure in which equimolar amounts of the analyte and the IS were used to generate intensity data. These intensity data were then used as the basis for the calculation of "cross-contribution" (in percentages) of ions designated for the analyte and the IS. Cross-contribution data were compared with the linearity data resulting from two series of standards containing 25 to 9600 ng/mL secobarbital using two sets of quantitation ion pairs--m/z 196/200 and 195/199 with 13C4-secobarbital as the IS and m/z 196/201 and 195/200 with 2HS-secobarbital as the IS. 13C4-secobarbital was found to be much less problematic and thus can serve as a very effective IS. Cross-contribution data alone cannot fully explain the observed differences resulting from the use of these two ISs; further systematic study is needed to provide better understanding of the underlying interference mechanism.     

MyOverseasVote: liberalism and extraterritorial citizenship

This article engages with the liberalist conception of extraterritorial citizenship in examining the pioneering attempt of the Malaysian diaspora to make a rights-based claim for extraterritorial voting. Using the case study of MyOverseasVote (MOV), a transnational advocacy group, this paper demonstrates how the Malaysian diaspora staked their constitutional claim as absent citizens and challenged the state’s definition of absent voters. The bottom-up reform is framed within the context of equalization of rights due to the salient ethnic element embedded in extraterritorial Malaysian citizenship. This liberalization of the external voting legislation has de-ethnicized but not equalized voting rights outside the country between publicly and privately employed citizens overseas. During the 13th General Election (GE13), Malaysia introduced a limited diaspora franchise conditioned upon territoriality and connectivity, affirming the continued relevance of territorial sovereignty.