中东北非动荡凸显美国对中东政策的内在矛盾

2010年底起于突尼斯、2011年以来迅速扩散的北非、中东动荡引起了世界广泛关注,其发生的根源、发展趋势及其影响、对中国的启示及中国的应对也是目前我国政界、学界集中探讨的热点问题。当前中东变局的深层根源是什么?骨牌效应会扩散到哪里?会不会改变中东政治力量对比甚至重塑中东战略格局?会不会影响全球战略态势?中东变局对中国的经济影响与战略影响如何?中国从中东变局的发生根源及其影响中可得到些什么启示?围绕这些问题,中国现代国际关系研究院《现代国际关系》杂志社于2011年3月10日举办了题为"当前北非、中东变局及其影响"的学术研讨会,来自北京大学、清华大学、中国人民大学、中共中央党校、国防大学、北京航空航天大学、北京外国语大学、南开大学、中国社会科学院及中国现代国际关系研究院的20多位专家学者与会。他们从不同角度就上述问题展开了热烈而深入的探讨。现将部分与会专家学者的主要观点辑录如下,以飨读者。     

家庭暴力及其治理对策

家庭暴力案件具有发生范围的广泛性、施暴手段的多样性和残忍性、发生地点的隐蔽性、严重的社会危害性及违法性。男女的社会地位和家庭地位的不平等、受害者的忍让、情感因素、暴力的周期性循环、公力救济的软弱等是家庭暴力产生和存在的主要根源。遏制家庭暴力的主要途径是社会预防和依法治理。     

从初选辩论看美国全球战略

美国的大选辩论往往是朝野评估和重新思考美国全球战略的一个平台。近期共和、民主两党的大选辩论看似互相攻讦,但从双方主要观点的实质看,今后一个时期,美国以伊拉克为全球战略重心、以军事与外交并重的全球战略手段都不会改变,大国关系也不会有太大的调整。     

Collective Blindness： A Reflection on Predictions by Chinese Academics about the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

During the early part of the 21 st century,Chinese academic circles made judgments and forecasts about U.S.war aims in Afghanistan and the Middle East,the possible process of the wars,and outcomes of postwar reconstruction.After the U.S.-led attack on Afghanistan on October 7,2001,and its military invasion of Iraq on March 20,2003,these big events were analyzed in the context of the international politics of the time.Since these two conflicts are coming to a conclusion,at least in their direct military scope,it is time to look back upon the forecasting framework to see whether alterations and improvements can be made.On December 18,2011,all American combat troops pulled out of Iraq,and the end is in sight for U.S.withdrawal from Afghanistan—either in December 2014,or thereafter.     

China’s Interests in and Influence over the Middle East

The Middle East became a critical region for China after 1993, when Beijing became a net oil importer. From this point, it became enmeshed in the complicated regional situation. And so China must realize its basic interests and policy objectives in the Middle East as well as set up an overall, balanced, clear and long-term strategic framework. Policy choices should be made in accordance with such factors as diplomatic tradition, national strength and political ideology.     

我国实施“安乐死”的可行性探讨

"安乐死"的本质是医学上认为患有绝症的人借助于外力的自杀行为.在自愿的基础上实施"安乐死"有利于减轻患者的痛苦,有利于减轻其家属的经济负担,符合唯物主义的认识论."安乐死"并不存在现实的社会危害,没有损害绝症患者的生命权,是尊重个体生命选择权的表现.在我国实施"安乐死"目前存在着四方面的问题.文章提出了实施"安乐死"程序的建议.     

中美关系:依赖性与脆弱性

在冷战结束后的20年里,中美关系从"安全主导"型转化为"复合依赖"型.当前中美利益冲突被分门别类地通过正常渠道解决,而不再动辄触及整个关系的根基.同时,受两国实力地位变化的影响,中美两国的利益偏好都在发生变化,中美关系又展现出脆弱性的一面.今后几十年,中美关系的脆弱性若能得到有效控制,则可能在一定程度上意味着中国和平崛起的成功.     

Global Politics: The Middle East Remains the Darkest Place in 2015

Over the past four years,political changes in the Middle East have always appeared to be unexpected and dazzling.Anti-government"Arab Spring"movements against strongman politics broke out in 2011;political Islam gained power through elections in Tunisia and Egypt in2012;an Egyptian military coup occurred in 2013;and in 2014 the"Islamic State"sprung up in Iraq and Syria.All these seemingly irrational episodes in fact share an inherent logical relationship.Looking ahead to2015,there is no end in sight to the military conflicts currently rife in the Middle East.This includes civil wars such as those in Iraq,Syria,and Libya,and the Yemen and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts.There is no hope for     

The U.S. Global Strategy as Seen from the Debate in the Primary Election

There may be more than one year to go before the 2008 U.S. presidential election, but the primary election of the two parties has already begun ahead of time. Both the Democratic and Republican candidates for the     

战略对话与中美关系

8月1-2日,中美举行了战略对话。这实际上是中美之间首次机制化的战略对话。中美双方商定,这样的对话今后将轮流在对方首都举行,每年两次。中美双方就各自重大国家利益和战略关切首次举行全面、机制性的高层对话,意义不可低估,因此成为举世瞩目的大事。舆论在关注这次战略对话本身的同时,更希望充分了解战略对话的缘由如何、为什么要搞战略对话、如何评估首次战略对话的成果、战略对话对双边关系有什么影响等问题。为此,本刊编辑部特邀请中国现代国际关系研究院美国所的专家学者就此进行对谈,以期能够有益于相关研究、有助于读者全面深入地了解有关情况。