当前伊朗核危机透视

今年4月以来,因伊朗与欧盟双方围绕去年达成的巴黎协议争执不下,伊多次威胁将恢复浓缩铀活动,而欧盟则警告若此将把伊核问题提交安理会讨论,伊朗核危机再次爆发。5月25日,英法德三国外长和伊朗代表在日内瓦举行紧急谈判,欧盟承诺将于7月底前拿出与伊谈判的一揽子新建议,并支持伊加入世贸组织,伊朗也表示在此期间将继续暂停恢复浓缩铀活动,这样危机又一次得以缓解。     

2004年的中东形势

2004年是伊拉克战争后的第一年,美国继续推动既定的大中东战略,伊战后遗症日益显现,中东进入一个大动荡、大分化和大整合的新时期。地区和平与民主改革已成为中东国家面临的突出挑战。一、伊拉克动乱与重建同步发展美对伊战争已过去20个月,但伊境内的反美武装抵抗和恐怖暴力袭击不但没有减弱,反而在局部地区不断激化,致使伊拉克一直难以摆脱战后乱局的困扰。与此同时,在美国十几万驻军的镇守和国际社会的支持下,伊拉克重建也取得明显进展。一年来,伊拉克呈现出动乱与重建同步发展的态势。一方面,伊战结束以来,伊境内安全局势始终未有明显改…     

Accumulation of large foreign reserves in China: a behavioural perspective

The massive accumulation of foreign reserves by China has challenged the conventional thinking about prudent reserve management. This paper develops a behavioural model of optimal decision making under uncertainty to explain the observed Chinese reserve policy. Departing from the conventional approach to utility maximisation based on the agent’s rationality, this paper explicitly models the behaviour of Chinese central banker who is influenced by loss aversion and narrow framing. Embedding the cognitive biases into the precautionary savings approach to holding reserves, the paper shows the behavioural optimality of Chinese reserve build-up and provides a plausible explanation of the dynamics of reserve accumulation in China, hence help make sense of the puzzling Chinese reserve policy.     

Middle East Transformation from the Perspective of U.S. Middle East Policy

The Middle East, one of the most turbulent regions in the world, has embarked on another round of chaos since America waged the Iraq war in 2003, new players vying to fill the power vacuum, entrenched hatred multiplying with new wounds. Ecstasy turned into agony as Americans watched the war unfold. U.S. think tank researchers and politicians, reflecting on the war and U.S. Middle East policy, urged the Bush administration to adjust the policy and break the strategic impasse. Under grave pressure from home and abroad, the White House finally began to respond. Against this backdrop, the year 2007 witnessed the most intensive and extensive shift of U.S. Middle East policy in recent years and a drastic return of realism in America＇s foreign policy. These policy changes rippled in the Middle East, precipitating policy changes of other powers and transformation of the geopolitical landscape. The Middle East, as we can see, is heading toward a new age of pain and growth.     

可罚的违法性理论及其对我国刑法“但书”的启示

可罚的违法性理论最先在德国提出,后来在日本得到发展,可罚的违法性理论是以刑法的谦抑主义、违法相对论和实质的违法性为理论基础的.中国刑法也讲究刑法的谦抑性,认定犯罪时考虑社会危害性程度,这说明我国与日本刑法有许多共通之处,但我国刑法中对承担出罪功能的"但书"的规定不明确,而日本的可罚的违法性理论的判断标准则相对明确,可以为我国的"但书"提供理论支持.     

伊拉克大选与美国的中东战略

2005年1月31日,伊拉克大选按预定计划举行。此次大选之所以引起世界广泛关注,在于其十多万外国军队占领、国内对立仍很严重、公正性与合法性广受争议的时空背景。但“后萨时代”伊首次多党自由选举,开启了伊拉克迈向民主和政治重建进程的第一步,具有“里程碑”意义,其影响是深刻、多重且复杂的。伊拉克如何迈开政治重建步伐?赢得选举能否赢得和平?美军是“留守”还是“退出”伊拉克?美国如何进行下一步的战略运作?带着这些问题本期我们邀请中国现代国际关系研究院的几位专家举行对谈,希望有助于您对相关问题的思考。     

China's Exchange Rate Reform and Exports

The paper argues that exchange rate reform is a vital supply-side factor in China's export growth. It contributes to China's export expansion by affording a realistic exchange rate and allowing freer access to foreign exchange, thereby leading to the reduction of anti-export bias and strong supply response. In an imperfect substitutes model, China's long-run export supply and demand functions are estimated in a system context. Evidence is found that the exchange rate reform is one of the most influential factors in China's long-run export expansion, inducing significant response of exports supply. In the short-run, the exchange rate reform and the export volume are also cross-linked through the error-correction process. China's exchange rate policy adjusts speedily to ensure the long-run equilibrium of the supply-side relationship and is likely to have played a dominant role in the adjustment. The study confirms, thanks to the exchange rate reform, China's exchange rate policy has benefited China's remarkable growth of exports before 1994.