What drives compliance with COVID-19 measures over time? Explaining changing impacts with Goal Framing Theory

The COVID-19 pandemic provides a unique opportunity to study which factors drive compliance and how the evolving context in society –virus fluctuations and changing government measures – changes the impact of these factors. Extant literature lists many factors that drive compliance – notably enforcement, trust, legitimacy. Most of these studies, however, do not look across time: whether a changing context for citizens changes the impact of factors driving compliance. In this study, we use Lindenberg's Goal Framing Theory to explain the dynamics of these drivers of compliance during the COVID-19 pandemic. We formulate hypotheses for pro-socialness, trust in government, observed respect for rules, rule effectiveness, rule appropriateness, fear of COVID-19 (severity and proximity), opportunities for pleasure and happiness, as well as worsened income position. We test our hypotheses with data collected at three different moments during the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis in Flanders, Belgium. Findings show that over time the constellations of factors that drive compliance change and, later in the pandemic, more distinct groups of citizens with different motivations to comply are identified. The overall conclusion is that the voluntary basis for compliance becomes more fragile over time, with a more differentiated pattern of drivers of compliance emerging. Public policy and communication need to adapt to these changes over time and address different groups of citizens.     

Only a Matter of Time? The Role of Criminal Competence in Avoiding Arrest

While prior research has shown that the probability of detection plays a role in the decision-making of many offenders, much less is known on offenders’ relative success in avoiding arrest. In this study, we draw from detailed criminal career data on 172 offenders involved in lucrative criminal activities to examine the role of criminal competence in the probability of being arrested in a given month. We examine a particular aspect of competence, criminal efficiency, which is defined as the ability to earn a relatively large amount of money for each crime committed. Our research design allows us to disentangle the effect of criminal efficiency as a static trait of offenders from the dynamic variations in efficiency that offenders experience over time. Results show that efficiency is a strong, negative predictor of arrest, both at the static and dynamic levels.     

Legal Statements and Normative Language

Can there be a non-reductivist, source-based explanation of the use of normative language in statements describing the law and legal situations? This problem was formulated by Joseph Raz, who also claimed to have solved it. According to his well-known doctrine of ‘detached’ statements, normative legal statements can be informatively made by speakers who merely adopt, without necessarily sharing, the point of view of someone who accepts that legal norms are justified and ought to be followed. In this paper I defend two theses. I argue, first, that the notion of a detached statement cannot be made to work, and that Raz’s problem is thus not thereby solved. But the problem itself, I also suggest, is a false one.     

Forensic drug intelligence: an important tool in law enforcement

Organised criminality is a great concern for national/international security. The demonstration of complex crimes is increasingly dependant on knowledge distributed within law-enforcement agencies and scientific disciplines. This separation of knowledge creates difficulties in reconstructing and prosecuting such crimes. Basic interdisciplinary research in drug intelligence combined with crime analysis, forensic intelligence, and traditional law enforcement investigation is leading to important advances in crime investigation support. Laboratory results constitute one highly dependable source of information that is both reliable and testable. Their operational use can support investigation and even provide undetected connections or organisation of structure. The foremost difficulties encountered by drug analysts are not principally of a chemical or analytical nature, but methodologies to extract parameters or features that are deemed to be crucial for handling and contextualising drug profiling data. An organised memory has been developed in order to provide accurate, timely, useful and meaningful information for linking spatially and temporally distinct events on a national and international level (including cross-border phenomena). Literature has already pointed out that forensic case data are amenable for use in an intelligence perspective if data and knowledge of specialised actors are appropriately organised, shared and processed. As a particular form of forensic case data, the authors' research focuses on parameters obtained through the systematic physical and chemical profiling of samples of illicit drugs. The procedure is used to infer and characterise links between samples that originate from the same and different seizures. The discussion will not, however, focus on how samples are actually analysed and compared as substantial literature on this topic already exists. Rather, attention is primarily drawn to an active and close collaboration between magistrates, forensic scientists, law enforcement investigators and crime analysts from different institutions with the aim of generating, using and validating relevant profiling case data as integral part of investigative and crime analysis processes. Original advances are highlighted through experiences from criminal investigations of offences related to the unlawful importation, exportation, supply and possession of illicit drugs.     

Generalizability of a two-factor measure of young children's suggestibility in Norway and the USA

Abstract

We discuss the development of the Book Suggestibility Scale for Children (BSSC), a two-factor suggestibility measure developed as an alternative to the Video Suggestibility Scale for Children (VSSC; Scullin & Ceci, Personality and Individual Differences, 30, 843–856, 2001). In study 1, both the BSSC and the VSSC were administered to 60 American preschool children. Children responded affirmatively to inaccurate leading questions (Yield) and changed their answers in response to negative feedback from interviewers (Shift) in a similar manner on both scales. In study 2 we found that the BSSC was useful for studies of suggestibility in contexts other than America because 62 Norwegian preschool children responded to questions in a similar manner to an age-range and vocabulary matched group of 31 American children. Results support a two-factor model of suggestibility, although Yield appears to measure suggestibility across scales and situations more consistently than does Shift. American age-matched samples had significantly higher Shift and Yield 2 scores than the Norwegian sample.     

Disturbed sleep as a risk factor for aggression in prisoners with a psychotic illness: a brief report

The objective of the present study is to examine whether a relationship exists between disturbed sleep and aggression in 19 male prisoners with a psychotic illness, incarcerated in the Penitentiary Psychiatric Centre in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. The sleep–wake rhythm was indirectly assessed by means of actigraphy. The results show that nocturnal restlessness was a significant predictor of aggression/agitation with a large effect size (R^2?=?.639, adjusted R²?=?.536). It was concluded that future research should focus on nocturnal restlessness as a possible cause of aggression in this population.     

The CSU as an Ethno-regional Party

The Christlich Soziale Union in Bayern, despite its dominant position in the Bavarian party system, remains a relatively rare object of enquiry in political science both nationally and internationally. Alf Mintzel noted this research gap back in 1993. Though progress has been made since then, his basic conclusion that the CSU is the least studied German party remains true. This article will review some landmarks of CSU research before establishing the criteria held as essential for an ethno-regional party. It will then assess the CSU against these criteria: first on the supply side (generally based on existing research), then on the demand side (based on the author's own research as the CSU's electorate still remains understudied).