危机幕后的东亚地区秩序分析

本文认为,东亚当前出现"大战不犯,小乱不断"状况的根源在于新旧嬗变中的地区秩序远未就域内各国的政治安排形成制度化设计,在于东亚地区秩序的"有气无力"。历史上,东亚地区秩序曾经历了天朝礼治秩序、条约秩序和冷战下"自主"秩序三种形态。依据历史脉络的梳理,本文认为有美国、中国、日本等七个要素影响着东亚地区秩序。为明确这些要素的特征及相互作用,本文提出了反映国家和国家关系总体形态的"锥体"模型。美国是影响东亚地区秩序的决定性变量,利用"锥体"模型,本文认为,美国现实主义的热情与贪婪,地缘战略的坚持与冷静,相互依赖的推动与困惑等特征共同勾画着东亚战略。中国的复兴是影响东亚地区秩序的突出变量,其显著特征在于整体性的成长。日本"正常化"是影响东亚地区秩序的另一主要变量,其特征在于日本自身的"二重性"。朝鲜半岛、台湾、东南亚由于其关键性和不稳定性而成为东亚地区秩序的缝合口。此外,俄罗斯要素也不可或缺。在美国要素与中国、日本等要素的复杂互动中,中美关系是东亚地区秩序的主轴,作为其中一方的中国,如何把握自身不断增长的力量至关重要。     

Examining the developmental process of risk for exposure to community violence among urban youth

Considerable research has documented the effects of community violence exposure on adolescents' behavior and mental health functioning, yet there has been less research on the process by which early risks increase the likelihood that youth will be exposed to community violence. The current study used data from a community epidemiologically defined sample of 623 urban youth followed from 1st grade through adolescence to examine the process by which early-onset aggressive behavior and poor academic readiness influenced risk for community violence exposure. Consistent with transactional developmental theories, early-onset aggressive and disruptive behavior was associated with poor academic readiness; these early risks contributed to later peer rejection, and subsequent conduct problems and greater affiliation with deviant peers, which in turn increased youths' exposure to community violence. Having an enhanced understanding of the risk process directs attention to potential targets for preventive interventions for youth at risk for subsequent exposure to violence.     

The social cost of trading: Measuring the increased damages from sulfur dioxide trading in the United States

The sulfur dioxide (SO₂) cap and trade program established in the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments is celebrated for reducing abatement costs ($0.7 to $2.1 billion per year) by allowing emissions allowances to be traded. Unfortunately, places with high marginal costs also tend to have high marginal damages. Ton‐for‐ton trading reduces emissions in low damage areas (rural) while increasing emissions in high damage areas (cities). From 2000 to 2007, conservative estimates of the value of mortality risk suggest that trades increased damages from $0.8 to $1.1 billion annually relative to the initial allowance allocation and from $1.5 to $1.9 billion annually relative to a uniform performance standard. With U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) values, trades increased damages from $2.4 to $3.2 billion annually compared to the initial allowance allocation and from $4.4 to $5.4 billion compared to a uniform performance standard. It is not clear that the ton‐for‐ton SO₂ cap and trade program is actually more efficient than comparable command and control programs. The trading program needs to be modified so that tons are weighted by their marginal damage. © 2011 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Distribution of the minutiae in the fingerprints of a sample of the Spanish population

One of the fundamental aspects of the process of identification through fingerprints is the comparison of the minutiae between the fingermark obtained at the scene of the crime and the suspect's corresponding finger. There is no scientific basis in this process that allows the use of numerical standards, such as those kept in different countries, to obtain the identification. The recent mistakes made in the field of dactyloscopy, together with the growing rigor and scrutiny that forensic evidence undergoes in the legislative and scientific areas, have resulted in the need to reconsider some of the basic principles that support this discipline. A probabilistic estimation of the evidential value is especially necessary; therefore, it is indispensable to know and quantify the variability of the features used in the identification process. The sample studied for this research was obtained from 100 Caucasian men and 100 Caucasian women from the Spanish population, which amounts to a total of 2000 fingerprints. The different types of minutiae were located, identified, and quantified visually on the fingerprint, in four sectors, and inside and outside of a circle, whose radius cut, perpendicularly, fifteen ridges starting from the center cut of the axes that defined the sectors. According to the results obtained in this study, through dactyloscopic identification, the weight of the evidence of a minutia, such as the ridge endings, with frequencies between 55% and 65%, according to the area and gender evaluated, cannot be the same as that of a bifurcation or convergence, with frequencies of 13-18% or those of other minutiae that show frequencies lower than 3%. The significant differences found in the topological distribution of the endings, bifurcations, and convergences show the need to take into account, for its demonstrational value, the finger area in which they are evaluated. The significant association observed between the types of minutiae and the different fingers revealed a greater frequency of endings on the thumb and index fingers, and bifurcations and convergences on the middle, ring, and little fingers.     

The perils of ‘going local’: liberal peace-building agendas in Nepal

Responding to recent critiques, foreign aid organisations are increasingly ‘going local’ in their operations in order to integrate local actors into their peace-building and aid projects. This is done under the belief that entering into partnerships directly with grassroots actors will increase local autonomy in joint ventures, thus empowering locals as agents of change both during and after the project period. But despite its normative and conceptual appeal, we argue that this model is not workable in practice and cannot be under the current structural conditions of the international aid environment. This is due to a fundamental disconnect between the conceptualisation and rationale of ‘going local’ and the structural and institutional frameworks within which ‘local ownership’ is supposed to be operationalised and implemented. This paper uses the example of Nepal to illustrate that this disconnect not only prevents foreign aid organisations from reaching their stated goals, but exacerbates the very problems that ‘going local’ is supposed to address.     

Spanish Supreme Court provides limited relief for data controllers

Earlier this year the Spanish Supreme Court gave judgment on an application to annul the data protection regulations set out in Royal Decree 1720/2007 and to refer the Spanish implementation of the Data Protection Directive to the European Court of Justice. The application was partially successful. Some sections of the Royal Decree have been annulled but much of it was upheld. The Supreme Court also referred the Spanish implementation of the legitimate interests processing condition (art. 7(f) of the Data Protection Directive) to the European Court of Justice. The European Court of Justice’s decision could have a material impact on data controllers in Spain. If the legitimate interest condition is finally recognised it should make data protection compliance significantly easier.