Who wins the most when everybody wins? Predicting candidate performance in an authoritarian election

ABSTRACT

What explains the variation in vote shares received by candidates in single-party authoritarian elections where everybody wins? The scholarly literature has often ignored institutional variations, treated all authoritarian elections as similar, and explained the variation of vote shares as a consequence of clientelism, coercion or electoral fraud. We employ a unique data set for Cuba’s 2013 National Assembly election to show an alternative answer: even in authoritarian regimes, institutional settings shape voters’ behaviour and candidates’ strategies. When the number of candidates on the ballot equals the number of parliamentary seats and yet voters can express some preference among multiple candidates, valence can become a predictor of candidate performance. Voters reward high-quality politicians, but not incumbents or Communist Party members, while candidates have no incentives to actively distinguish themselves and converge toward the general support of the single united slate.     

Lessons from the Third World for Understanding American Criminal Justice

This paper argues for and attempts to demonstrate the case for including materials related to the operation of Third World criminal justice in courses dealing with American criminal justice system. The author argues that an examination of the contexts and processes of criminal justice in Third World nations increases one's ability to understand and critique the history and operations of our criminal justice enterprises. The Third World context offers laboratories for testing assumptions about American criminal justice without the implicitly pervasive ideological overtones we come to accept unquestionably in our own system simply because it is the one in which we operate.

Within the context of poverty, “dual societies,” chronic political instability, the struggle for economic development, and colonialism, the Third World offers an opportunity to study the interaction and impact of law, politics, economics, social control, and social change on the development and operations of criminal justice. Using examples from the literature of anthropology, law and social change, and political and economic development, the author attempts to demonstrate the usefulness of this interdisciplinary approach and the Third World context in teaching about the criminal justice system.     

The Optimization of Electrophoresis on a Glass Microfluidic Chip and its Application in Forensic Science

Microfluidic chips offer significant speed, cost, and sensitivity advantages, but numerous parameters must be optimized to provide microchip electrophoresis detection. Experiments were conducted to study the factors, including sieving matrices (the concentration and type), surface modification, analysis temperature, and electric field strengths, which all impact the effectiveness of microchip electrophoresis detection of DNA samples. Our results showed that the best resolution for ssDNA was observed using 4.5% w/v (7 M urea) lab‐fabricated LPA gel, dynamic wall coating of the microchannel, electrophoresis temperatures between 55 and 60°C, and electrical fields between 350 and 450 V/cm on the microchip‐based capillary electrophoresis (μCE) system. One base‐pair resolution could be achieved in the 19‐cm‐length microchannel. Furthermore, both 9947A standard genomic DNA and DNA extracted from blood spots were demonstrated to be successfully separated with well‐resolved DNA peaks in 8 min. Therefore, the microchip electrophoresis system demonstrated good potential for rapid forensic DNA analysis.     

Nash bargaining solutions for international climate agreements under different sets of bargaining weights

Bargaining is a tool to share collaborative gains and to facilitate reaching agreement. To improve incentives to join an international climate agreement (ICA), the Nash bargaining solution can be used to distribute cooperative gains across signatories. In this paper, we examine how the formation of ICAs and their mitigation efficiency are impacted by the use of the Nash bargaining solution. In a Nash bargaining game with heterogeneous players, bargaining powers are unequal and may be driven by different characteristics of the players. We employ different sets of asymmetric bargaining weights in order to examine the effectiveness of climate coalitions that emerge as stable agreements. Using the Nash bargaining solution, we obtain results from the stability of coalition model (STACO). We find that the Nash bargaining solution can improve the participation incentives and performances of ICAs as compared to agreements that do not redistribute gains from cooperation, but its capacity to overcome free-riding incentives is limited. However, if Nash bargaining accounts for outside options of players, we find larger stable coalitions and higher global abatement levels. In fact, Nash bargaining with outside options can stabilise the largest coalitions that can possibly be stable in our game.     

ORGANIZING FOR EU IMPLEMENTATION: THE EUROPEANIZATION OF GOVERNMENT MINISTRIES IN ESTONIA,POLAND, AND SLOVENIA

Do different levels of exposure to EU law implementation have consequences for the organization of national ministries? Previous accounts suggest that European integration has little influence on the ‘hardware’ of member state administrations. Data covering the organization of 21 ministries in Estonia, Poland, and Slovenia show the Europeanization effect to be more pronounced than might be expected. Ministries responsible for transposing many EU directives tend to institutionalize centralized oversight in legislative planning, review, and monitoring; ministries with few implementation responsibilities rarely make such adaptations. This effect holds when one controls for the impact of partisan preferences and organizational conventions. The results offer a counterpoint to the studies of old member states that find little EU effect on the organization of domestic ministries.     

“The big sleep: Elucidating the sequence of events in the first hours of death to determine the postmortem interval”

Recent developments on postmortem interval estimation (PMI) take an advantage of the autolysis process, pointing out to the analysis of the expression of apoptosis and autophagy genes towards this purpose. Oxidative stress plays a role in this signaling as a regulatory mechanism and/or as a consequence of cell death. Additionally, melatonin has been implicated on apoptosis and autophagy signaling, making melatonin a suitable target for PMI determination. The aim of this study was to investigate the early PMI through the analysis of the expression of autophagy genes as well as oxidative stress and melatonin receptor. Our results demonstrated a rapidly increased on the expression of autophagy genes according to the expected sequence of events, then a marked decrease in this expression, matched with the switch to the apoptosis signaling. These results revealed potential candidates to analyze the PMI in the first hours of death, helping to estimate the time-since-death.     

Extraction and isolation of cannabinoids from marijuana seizures and characterization by 1H NMR allied to chemometric tools

Marijuana, a drug derived from the Cannabis sativa L. plant, is the world's most consumed illicit drug. In this paper, a total of 156 marijuana samples seized in the state of Espírito Santo (ES), Brazil were studied and analysed by proton nuclear magnetic resonance (¹H NMR) spectroscopy to identify the major cannabinoids present. A crude extract of all samples was purified using high performance liquid chromatography so that these compounds could serve as reference substances. Nine fractions were obtained and analysed by ¹H NMR and gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS), with five presented cannabinoids. ?⁹-THC (Δ⁹-trans-tetrahydrocannabinol), ?⁹-THCA (?⁹-tetrahydrocannabinolic acid), ?⁸-THC (?⁸-tetrahydrocannabinol), 11-hydroxycannabinol, CBV (cannabivarin), and CBN (cannabinol) were found, and their chemical structures were confirmed by GC–MS. The latter compound was obtained with high purity (≈100%), while the others were obtained as less complex mixtures with purity higher than 75% (except for Δ⁸-THC). Principal component analysis (PCA) was used on the ¹H NMR spectra of the 156 samples, and it was found that the samples were grouped according to the months, differentiating into two groups (from July 2014 to January 2015 and from February 2015 to July 2015), where non-grouping was observed from four macro-regions of the ES state (North, Central, Metropolitan, and South). The chemical profile of the seized samples was correlated to the ¹H NMR spectrum of an isolated CBN sub-fraction, in which the group formed by samples seized in the year 2015 presented lower CBN content in the chemical composition. From the PCA score plot, two groups of samples were confirmed using the partial least squares discriminant analysis and orthogonal projections to latent structures classification methods.     

Psychosocial Interventions for Substance-Abusing Criminal Offenders: Borrowing US Experience for the Chinese Context

Research and evaluation studies on in-prison interventions and community rehabilitative programs in the USA have made much progress in recent decades and produced many promising findings that can be shared and perhaps emulated in countries with emerging substance misuse problems. Drawing from our own research and a review of the literature on promising psychosocial interventions—most notably, cognitive–behavioral interventions, contingency management, and motivational interviewing, we reflect on what we have personally learned from the principles and research accumulated from the USA with a particular application for the Chinese context. The best lessons from decades of research in this field in the USA include: (1) avoid reinventing the wheel and embrace the basic principles of effective psychosocial interventions, (2) develop a treatment environment that humanizes substance misusers and promotes social reintegration, and (3) employ inexpensive but rigorous evaluation strategies to provide evidence for incremental improvement in treatment. Specific challenges in the Chinese sociocultural context are also discussed and recommendations made for improved access and services in the treatment of substance misuse in the world’s most populous country.