Gender,Critical Mass,and Judicial Decision Making

We examine the role of gender in legal decision making by applying critical mass theory to the U.S. federal district courts. We analyze whether behavioral differences manifest themselves in the decision‐making proclivities of male and female judges, contingent on the existence of a critical mass of female judges at a court point (i.e., each city in which a district court is located). Our results indicate that women jurists exhibit distinctive behavior in certain cases when there is a critical mass of women at a court point. These differences are most significant in criminal justice cases; modest differences between men and women are also identified in civil rights and liberties cases. Gender is not significant in labor and economic regulation cases. These findings suggest that the increasing presence of women on the federal bench could have substantial policy ramifications in the American polity.     

THE SHORT‐TERM EFFECTS OF EXECUTIONS ON HOMICIDES: DETERRENCE,DISPLACEMENT, OR BOTH?*

Does the death penalty save lives? In recent years, a new round of research has been using annual time‐series panel data from the 50 U.S. states for 25 or so years from the 1970s to the late 1990s that claims to find many lives saved through reductions in subsequent homicide rates after executions. This research, in turn, has produced a round of critiques, which concludes that these findings are not robust enough to model even small changes in specifications that yield dramatically different results. A principal reason for this sensitivity of the findings is that few state‐years exist (about 1 percent of all state‐years) in which six or more executions have occurred. To provide a different perspective, we focus on Texas, a state that has used the death penalty with sufficient frequency to make possible relatively stable estimates of the homicide response to executions. In addition, we narrow the observation intervals for recording executions and homicides from the annual calendar year to monthly intervals. Based on time‐series analyses and independent‐validation tests, our best‐fitting model shows that, from January 1994 through December 2005, evidence exists of modest, short‐term reductions in homicides in Texas in the first and fourth months that follow an execution—about 2.5 fewer homicides total. Another model suggests, however, that in addition to homicide reductions, some displacement of homicides may be possible from one month to another in the months after an execution, which reduces the total reduction in homicides after an execution to about .5 during a 12‐month period. Implications for additional research and the need for future analysis and replication are discussed.     

PROBABILISTIC MODELS OF YOUTHFUL CRIMINAL CAREERS

This paper focuses on the characterization of the criminal careers of youthful offenders. It was found that these criminal careers could be modeled with parameters rejecting constant individual rates of offending and constant probability of career termination; population heterogeneity could be adequately represented by two distinct groups—designated here as "frequents" and occasionals." These parameters were estimated for the multiple offenders in a London cohort studied from their first convictions until age 25. In that cohort, the frequents were estimated to have an annual conviction rate of 1.14 convictions per year (constant with age) and a probability of career termination of .10 following each conviction; the occasionals had an annual conviction rate of .41 and termination probability of .33 following each conviction; the frequents were estimated to comprise 43% of the population, and the occasionals the others 57%. While this parsimonious model structure was adequate for the London cohort, it must still be tested with other offender populations.