Values and Persuasion During the First Bush-Gore Presidential Debate

Appealing to values is an effective form of argumentation. In our analysis of the Bush-Gore debate, we found that values are fundamental in framing issues; their effectiveness is contingent on the issue context and the predisposition of the audience.­ Thus, merely constructing an appeal to values does not guarantee persuasiveness, as the appeal must be concrete in nature when attempting to move an audience to action. Such an appeal goes beyond creating a link between the value appeal and the issue, as the value appeal and the issue position must resonate with a defined audience. Our results indicate that most undecided voters who made up their minds as a result of the debate chose Gore, while a few chose Bush and some remained undecided. Those who chose Gore were clearly more egalitarian in their orientation than undecided voters who chose Bush or could not decide. Bush's use of individualism did not seem to persuade undecided voters, nor did it seem to have a detrimental impact on support for Gore. For the most part, Bush's support remained constant before and after the debate, at least among this particular audience.     

MEASURING PROTECTIVE HANDGUN OWNERSHIP*

Hill et al. (1985) have suggested a measure of protective handgun ownership that can be implemented in an omnibus survey like the General Social Survey (GSS), which does not ask respondents why they own the gun. Using the 1980 GSS and their refined measure, Hill et al. report (among other things) that fear of crime and prior victimization increase the likelihood that men, but not women, will own handguns for protection. Their analysis, however, is Jawed because (1) they made errors in their analysis and (2) their measure of protective handgun ownership is biased. This paper explains why the measure is biased and shows how the measure alters parameter estimates.     

Administration and Justice

Although the existence of plea negotiation as an operative mode of disposition in most criminal court systems has been firmly established, its role in the administration of justice remains a topic of considerable debate. It has been claimed that plea negotiation subverts ideal principles of justice while attending to administrative needs for speedy case settlement. More recent research indicates that disposition by guilty plea is a complex process that incorporates system needs as well as principles of justice. Findings from an exploratory study of the felony disposition guilty plea is a complex process that incorporates system needs as well as principles of justice. Findings from an exploratory study of the felony disposition process in the Multnomah County court system in Portland, Oregon suggest that, under certain conditions, plea negotiation can effect a balance between competing but interdependent domains of action in the criminal disposition process.     

PREDICTING THE VIOLENT OFFENDER:THE DISCRIMINANT VALIDITY OF THE SUBCULTURE OF VIOLENCE*

This study tests the extent to which an adherence to the subculture of violence uniquely predicts a tendency to favor violence or instead predicts a more generalized offending repertoire, of which violence is part. Specifically, we use a unique analytic technique that provides the opportunity to distinguish empirically between the “violent offender” and/or the “frequent offender.” The results suggest that holding values favorable toward violence consistently predicts general offending but do not identify youth who systematically favor violence over nonviolence. This discussion considers the impact of these findings for the continued utility of the subculture of violence perspective.     

DOES ECONOMIC ADVERSITY BREED CRIMINAL COOPERATION? CONSIDERING THE MOTIVATION BEHIND GROUP CRIME

The fact that most offenders have accomplices at some point in their criminal career is curious, given the risks associated with criminal cooperation. McCarthy, Hagan, and Cohen ( 1998 ) offered the first formal theory of the decision to co‐offend, which addressed explicitly the uncertainties attached to the decision to engage in group crime. They posited that when offenders experience adversity, they become more risk seeking and oriented toward the chance for potential gain, which essentially outweighs the uncertainties attached to criminal cooperation. McCarthy, Hagan, and Cohen's analysis of street youth offered some empirical support for their premise but left open many important questions. The current study uses data from two different samples of incarcerated felons in Nebraska (N = 321 offenders) and Colorado (N = approximately 1,120 observations nested within approximately 640 offenders) that provide information on different forms of economic adversity. Logistic regression models provide some evidence for the association between adversity and co‐offending, but they are inconsistent. In contrast, a preference for excitement is a consistent and powerful predictor of offending.     

THE ELUSIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN COMMUNITY ORGANIZATIONS AND CRIME: AN ASSESSMENT ACROSS DISADVANTAGED AREAS OF THE SOUTH BRONX

Several theoretical perspectives posit a negative association between the extent of a neighborhood's organizational infrastructure and crime; yet, empirical support for this proposition has been limited in that researchers generally examine only a few types of organizations or combine them into one aggregate measure. Studies with few measures may omit organizations that are effective at reducing crime, whereas those using aggregate measures obscure differences across organizations in their ability to control crime. Using data from 74 block groups in the South Bronx, NY, this research seeks to specify more clearly the relationship between organizations and crime in a disadvantaged urban environment. We examine the relationship among nine different types of organizations and violent and property crime controlling for prior crime, land use, and area sociodemographic characteristics. Consistent with theories that highlight the importance of organizations for establishing ties outside the neighborhood, we find that block groups with more organizations that bridge to the larger community experience a decrease in crime. Property crime also is reduced in block groups with more organizations that promote the well‐being of families and children. We find that schools are associated with an increase in property crime, whereas the effects of other organizations are context specific and vary based on neighborhood racial composition, commercial land use, and disadvantage.     

COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENTAL THEORY: A Basis for Juvenile Correctional Reform?

Cognitive developmental theory has been increasingly offered as on explanation for lawbreaking. The theory suggests that lawbreaking results from individuals not having sufficiently developed reasoning abilities to resolve moral dilemmas, specificially those involving illegal acts. This article reports on on original test of the association between reasoning and law-breaking and addresses shortcomings of prior research. The article concludes that although the theory has been recommended and used as a basis for program design, there is little evidence to suggest that reasoning is, indeed, related to lawbreaking. Since ideological appeal of the theory may result in its adoption in program settings, continued empirical testing of hy-potheses derived from the theory is of considerable importance.     

PARENTHOOD AS A TURNING POINT IN THE LIFE COURSE FOR MALE AND FEMALE GANG MEMBERS: A STUDY OF WITHIN‐INDIVIDUAL CHANGES IN GANG MEMBERSHIP AND CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR

The impact of parenthood on leaving a street gang is not well understood. This is likely because researchers in prior studies have not accounted for multiple dimensions of gang exit, possible gender differences, and potential selection bias. In this study, we use a sample of 466 male and 163 female gang members from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1997 to consider the within‐individual relationship between changes in parenthood and changes in claiming gang membership and offending. These data offer the opportunity to consider gender differences and birth parity (i.e., first or second child). The results from a series of fixed‐effects models reveal that motherhood is associated with enduring reductions in both the odds of claiming gang membership and the rate of offending, whereas fatherhood has a temporary beneficial impact on gang membership and offending only for those fathers who reside with their children. In most cases, the beneficial effect of having a child rests in becoming a parent for the first time. On the whole, our study findings demonstrate that parenthood serves as a turning point for a particular group of noteworthy offenders—gang members.     

SHORT‐TERM CHANGES IN ADULT ARREST RATES INFLUENCE LATER SHORT‐TERM CHANGES IN SERIOUS MALE DELINQUENCY PREVALENCE: A TIME‐DEPENDENT RELATIONSHIP*

The impacts of quarterly adult arrest rates on later male serious delinquency prevalence rates were investigated in Philadelphia police districts (N = 23) over several years using all male delinquents aged 10–15 years who were mandated to more than “straight” probation. An ecological deterrence model expects more arrests to lead to less delinquency later. A community justice or mass incarceration model, the ecological version of general strain theory, and an ecologized version of the procedural justice model, each anticipates more arrests lead to more delinquency later. Investigating quarterly lags from 3 to 24 months between adult arrests and later delinquency, the results showed a time‐dependent relationship. Models with short lags showed the negative relationship expected by ecological deterrence theory. Models with lags of about a year and a half showed the positive relationship expected by the other three theories. Indicators needed so future works can gauge the relative merits of each theoretical perspective more accurately are described. The spatial distributions of current and 1920s delinquency rates were compared.