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ARNOLD J. HEIDENHEIMER 《管理》1993,6(2):194-219
How do economically successful countries like Germany, Japan and Switzerland differ in their post-primary education policies? After identifying great variations in the structure and capacity of secondary and higher education sectors, explanations are sought in terms of domestic and inter-national factors. Switzerland and Japan emerge as polar cases in how political variables - such as centralism-federalism, parties and bureaucracies - affected choice of vehicles and extent of educational expansion. Party influence is most clearcut in Germany, but varies by sector. Whereas German and Japanese reform agendas changed in the aftermath of occupation experiences, Switzerland went its own way until prospects for European integration induced greater accommodation to the training and credential practices of its neighbors. 相似文献
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In an earlier article in this journal, Barnett, Blumstein, and Farrington (1987) formulated a model that described the criminal careers of the multiple offenders in a cohort of London males that had been studied from their 10th to 25th birthdays. That model involved two subpopulations of offenders (denoted as “frequents” and “occasionals”), each characterized by a constant annual conviction rate (μ) and a constant probability (p) of terminating the career following a conviction. This article describes the results of a prospective and predictive test of the model using new data collected on the same offenders from their 25th to 30th birthdays. The original model accurately predicted the number of recidivists, the degree of recidivism risk, the total number of recidivist convictions, and the time intervals between recidivist convictions. However, the predictions for the frequents suffered some distortions introduced by a few “intermittent” offenders who seemed to have terminated their careers, but who re-initiated offending during the test period after a long gap. 相似文献
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How federalism influences welfare spending: Belgium federalism reform through the perspective of the synthetic control method 下载免费PDF全文
TOBIAS ARNOLD ISABELLE STADELMANN‐STEFFEN 《European Journal of Political Research》2017,56(3):680-702
The question of whether and how federalism influences a country's welfare state has been a longstanding concern of political scientists. However, no agreement exists on exactly how, and under what conditions, federal structures impact the welfare state. This article examines this controversy. It concludes theoretically that the specific constellation of federal structures and distribution of powers need to be considered when theorising the effects of federalism on the welfare state. Using the case of Belgium and applying the synthetic control method, it is shown in the article that without the federalism reform of 1993, the country would have had further decreases in social spending rather than a consolidation of this spending in the years after 1993. In the case of Belgium, the combination of increased subnational spending autonomy in a still national financing system provided ideal conditions for a positive federalism effect on social spending to occur. 相似文献
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七年前的一个夏天,我开车带着全家在高速公路上兜风,孩子们都坐在后座上。突然,妻子在车内发现了一只蜜蜂,于是一场恐慌随之而来。“这儿有一只蜜蜂!”派格几乎尖叫起来,“快停车!”但我当时的感觉是,与其让车在慌乱中乱撞,还不如让我们每个人都被蜜蜂蜇一下。“把车窗摇下来,”我说,“也许它会离开。”“快停车!”派格仍然坚持着,已经 相似文献
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This paper focuses on the characterization of the criminal careers of youthful offenders. It was found that these criminal careers could be modeled with parameters rejecting constant individual rates of offending and constant probability of career termination; population heterogeneity could be adequately represented by two distinct groups—designated here as "frequents" and occasionals." These parameters were estimated for the multiple offenders in a London cohort studied from their first convictions until age 25. In that cohort, the frequents were estimated to have an annual conviction rate of 1.14 convictions per year (constant with age) and a probability of career termination of .10 following each conviction; the occasionals had an annual conviction rate of .41 and termination probability of .33 following each conviction; the frequents were estimated to comprise 43% of the population, and the occasionals the others 57%. While this parsimonious model structure was adequate for the London cohort, it must still be tested with other offender populations. 相似文献
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