Extending the Confusion About Bayes

In R v T [2010] EWCA Crim 2439, [2011] 1 Cr App Rep 85, the Court of Appeal indicated that ‘mathematical formulae’, such as likelihood ratios, should not be used by forensic scientists to analyse data where firm statistical evidence did not exist. Unfortunately, when considering the forensic scientist's evidence, the judgment consistently commits a basic logical error, the ‘transposition of the conditional’ which indicates that the Bayesian argument has not been understood and extends the confusion surrounding it. The judgment also fails to distinguish between the validity of the relationships in a formula and the precision of the data. We explain why the Bayesian method is the correct logical method for analysing forensic scientific evidence, how it works and why ‘mathematical formulae’ can be useful even where firm statistical data is lacking.     

Criminal Contemplation,National Context,and Deterrence

Using random samples of adults from three European countries rarely surveyed about crime-related issues, this study seeks to identify, with more extensive indicators than is typical, individuals who are likely to contemplate the commission of criminal acts. Then, it assesses the contextual universality of deterrence claims by estimating the deterrent effectiveness of perceived formal and informal sanctions for theft and violence among crime contemplators in Greece, Russia, and Ukraine. With criminal contemplation taken into account, our findings confirm the patterns established in past research. Whereas the threat of formal punishment shows little deterrent effect, perceptions of informal sanctions appear to influence projected crime. However, supportive findings hold only in Russia and Ukraine. Overall, it appears that the deterrent effectiveness of sanctions may be to some extent contingent on cultural or contextual characteristics.     

The relationship of violent fathers, posttraumatically stressed mothers and symptomatic children in a preschool-age inner-city pediatrics clinic sample

This study aims to understand if greater severity of maternal posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS), related to maternal report of interpersonal violence, mediates the effects of such violence on (a) child PTSS as well as on (b) child externalizing and internalizing symptoms. Study participants were mothers (N = 77) and children 18 to 48 months recruited from community pediatric clinics. Data were analyzed continuously via bivariate correlations and then multiple linear regression. Post hoc Sobel tests were performed to confirm mediation. Paternal violence accounted for 15% of the variance of child PTSS on the PCIP-OR (β = .39, p ≤ .001). While the child's father being violent significantly predicts child PTSS related to domestic violence, as mentioned, when maternal PTSS is included in the multiple regression model, father's being violent becomes less significant, while maternal PTSS remains strongly predictive. Sobel tests confirmed that maternal PTSS severity mediated effects of paternal violence on clinician-assessed child PTSS as well as on maternal report of child externalizing and internalizing symptoms. When presented with a preschool-aged child who is brought to consultation for behavioral difficulties, dysregulated aggression, and/or unexplained fears, clinicians should evaluate maternal psychological functioning as well as assess and treat the effects of interpersonal violence, which otherwise may be avoided during the consultation.     

ATTACHMENT PERSPECTIVES ON DOMESTIC VIOLENCE AND FAMILY LAW

Lieberman and Zeanah are specialist clinicians, researchers, and prolific publishers in the areas of infant mental health, attachment development in high‐risk environments, and treatment of infant–parent relationship trauma. In this article, Lieberman and Zeanah discuss the impacts of domestic violence on the attachment security and development of infants and children and address a number of implications for the family law context. Conundrums for parenting visitation and living arrangements are considered, together with the need for multidisciplinary, early response and the pivotal role of family courts in directing this response.     

Exploring the Sequential Lineup Advantage Using WITNESS

Advocates claim that the sequential lineup is an improvement over simultaneous lineup procedures, but no formal (quantitatively specified) explanation exists for why it is better. The computational model WITNESS (Clark, Appl Cogn Psychol 17:629–654, 2003) was used to develop theoretical explanations for the sequential lineup advantage. In its current form, WITNESS produced a sequential advantage only by pairing conservative sequential choosing with liberal simultaneous choosing. However, this combination failed to approximate four extant experiments that exhibited large sequential advantages. Two of these experiments became the focus of our efforts because the data were uncontaminated by likely suspect position effects. Decision-based and memory-based modifications to WITNESS approximated the data and produced a sequential advantage. The next step is to evaluate the proposed explanations and modify public policy recommendations accordingly.     

Giant berry aneurysms in a forensic setting: a series of 14 cases

This is a series reviewing 14 cases of giant saccular aneurysms diagnosed at the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner of New York City collected over an 11-year period. Data collected on all 14 cases included neuropathological findings, comorbidities, and toxicological findings. Of these 14 cases, 8 were in women, and the ages ranged from 3 to 79 years, with a mean and a median of 50 years. Women were overrepresented in the sixth through eighth decades. Of the 14 cases described, 11 presented with a subarachnoid hemorrhage; 3, no hemorrhage; 2, subdural hemorrhage; 8, intraventricular hemorrhage; 2, intracerebral hemorrhage; and 8, more than 1 hemorrhage type. Location of the aneurysms varied with 6 in the left side of the brain, 6 present in the right side of the brain, and 2 at the midline. We described the clinical, pathological, and toxicological findings associated with these giant aneurysms.     

The role of coronial autopsies in a context of decreasing hospital autopsies: an investigation of the issues

This article scrutinises the argument that decreasing hospital autopsy rates are outside the control of medical personnel, based as they are on families' unwillingness to consent to autopsy procedures, and that, as a consequence, the coronial autopsy is the appropriate alternative to the important medical and educational role of the autopsy It makes three points which are well supported by the research. First, that while hospital autopsy rates are decreasing, they have been doing so for more than 60 years, and issues beyond the simple notion of consent, like funding formulae in hospitals, increased technology and fear of litigation by doctors are all playing their part in this decline. Secondly, the issue of consent has as much to do with families not being approached as with families declining to give consent. This is well supported by recent changes in hospital policy and procedures which include senior medical personnel and detailed consent forms, both of which have been linked to rising consent rates in recent years. Finally, the perception that coronial autopsies are beyond familial consent has been challenged recently by legislative changes in both Australia and the United States of America which allow objections based on religion and culture to be heard by coroners. For these reasons, it is argued that medical personnel need to focus on increasing hospital autopsy rates, while also addressing the complex ethical issues associated with conducting medical research within the context of the coronial autopsy.     

THE ART OF RESISTANCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The author looks at the relationship between art and power and the ways in which resistance to power is manifested in art. This is a universal phenomenon, but the examples discussed are all from the Middle East, principally the Palestinian struggle, Iran, Lebanon and Iraq. Posters, graffiti etc all have their place and the events of the Arab Spring have shown the potential for the defacement of official public images as an act of defiance. The precise impact of these various art forms is not easy to measure, but clearly when someone can tear down the image of a president with impunity, something in political life has changed.     

The Impact of AIDS on the Botswana Civil Service: A Case Study of the Police and Prison Services

That HIV/AIDS has had an enormous impact on southern Africa in general, and in Botswana in particular, is not in doubt. Numerous studies have documented certain aspects of the problem—high HIV prevalence rates, increasing numbers of orphans and vulnerable children, declining average life expectancy, and a high number of deaths among adults during their most productive years. Scholars have engaged in speculation about the possible impacts that this disease might have on social relationships, economic growth and development, and governance in both the near and the long terms. But these studies are only forecasts of possible futures, not data driven analyses. This study closely examines data available from two agencies in the Botswana civil service, the police and prisons services in an effort to assess, albeit indirectly, any impact that the HIV/AIDS crisis may have had on the workforce. Although the AIDS epidemic in the country as a whole was reflected in the experience of these services, neither agency suffered the devastating effects some feared.     

Narrative accounts from the citizens,victims, and offenders restoring justice program

This paper describes the Citizens, Victims, and Offenders Restoring Justice (CVORJ) program, a prison-based program conducted as a pilot study at the Washington State Reformatory. The program brings together offenders and victims - though not involved in the same crime - in the company of interested community members to discuss restorative justice principles. The program focuses on the sharing of personal narratives of crime to explore how the harms resulting from crime can best be addressed and justice achieved. Of interest was how a restorative justice model that highlighted community participation could be incorporated into a correctional setting and whether healing could result from the use of surrogate offenders, victims, and community members. The restorative nature of the program, its method of operation, results from the qualitative evaluation, and key implementation challenges are presented.