Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China

We use business survey data collected by the People’s Bank of China for inflation forecasting. Some survey indicators lead to enhanced forecasting performance relative to the univariate benchmark model, especially for a period of moderate inflation. However, the estimated models do not do a good job of tracking the recent pickup in Chinese inflation, due to increases in food prices.     

The DNA field experiment: a randomized trial of the cost-effectiveness of using DNA to solve property crimes

We report the results of a prospective, randomized study of the impact and cost-effectiveness of DNA evidence in investigating property crimes, mainly residential burglary. Biological evidence was collected at up to 500 crime scenes in five U.S. cities between 2005 and 2007, and cases were randomly assigned to the treatment and control groups in equal numbers. DNA processing was added to traditional investigation in the treatment group. A suspect was identified in 31% of treatment cases and 13% of control cases. A suspect was arrested in 22% of treatment cases and 10% of control cases. Across the five sites, each additional arrest—an arrest that would not have occurred without DNA processing—cost slightly more than US14,000. In the most cost-effective sites, an additional arrest cost less than US14,000. In the most cost-effective sites, an additional arrest cost less than US4,000. Expanding the use of DNA as an investigative tool has profound implications. Since DNA-led investigations are more costly than business-as-usual, substantial investments will be required to expand the capacity of crime laboratories, police, and prosecutors to use this investigative tool efficiently. In time, such a change may also impact the types of crimes of cases processed in the criminal justice system.     

Democracy as a coalition of cultures

Aaron Wildavsky was until his recent death Class of 1940 Professor of Political Science and Public Policy and a member of the Survey Research Center at the University of California, Berkeley. A brief appreciation of his life and work follows.     

Decentralization: Conceptualization and measurement

Decentralized government institutions are doing more of the work of government than ever before, but there is little agreement about 1) what decentralization means, or 2) how it should be measured. To overcome this confusion, this article builds on standard definitions of decentralization that include three core dimensions: fiscal, administrative, and political. The article offers an empirical test of that definition using factor analysis of data from 1996 for sixty-eight countries. Factor analysis confirms these three core dimensions and generates a score for each case in each dimension, allowing countries to be measured according to their type and degree of decentralization. In future work, these scores can be used for hypothesis testing about the causes and effects of decentralization on important social outcomes. This exercise demonstrates that conceptual confusion need not hamper research when empirical tests can help verify conceptual categories. Aaron Schneider is a political scientist at the Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex. His research interests include comparative politics, public finance, and methodology. His current research projects include studies of federalism, decentralization, party systems, budgeting, and taxation. He has conducted research in Brazil and India, and plans to apply the measures derived in this article to study the impact of decentralization. Tel:+44 (0)1273 678270; fax: +44 (0)1273 621202; email: a.schneider@ids.ac.uk. For valuable comments and suggestions, the author would like to thank Mick Moore, Arnab Acharya, Marcus Kurtz, Benjamin Goldfrank, and anonymous reviewers from Studies in Comparative International Development. Financial support was provided by the Department for International Development. All errors or omissions are the author’s own.     

Polarization,Ideology, and Vote Choice in U.S. Congressional Elections

Despite the debate about mass polarization, most scholars agree that parties in Congress have become increasingly polarized over time. Scholars have sought to connect party polarization to the beliefs and perceptions of individual citizens, but little work exists on the relationship between polarization and the vote choices made by ordinary citizens. In this article, I examine the link between party polarization at the elite level, the use of ideology by citizens, and their vote choices in Congressional elections. I argue that the increased polarization that has occurred over time has led people to place more weight on ideology when casting their votes in U.S. House elections. My hypothesis stems from work on group conflict theory, which suggests that when people sense a high degree of conflict between two groups, a cue from elites, they will be more likely to rely on their own relevant characteristics or attitudes when making choices. This study differs from previous work on Congressional elections in that I examine variation in the effect of ideology on vote choice over multiple elections rather than just in one or two elections. I argue that an exploration of the political context (or the political context perceived by voters) is necessary in order to more fully understand the use of ideology in U.S. elections. To the extent that polarization facilitates the use of information shortcuts among voters, it might be viewed as a positive development within the context of electoral politics.     

The Costs and Benefits of American Policy‐Making Venues

Many law and policy scholars consider judges inimical to good public policymaking, and the criticisms they level on the judiciary implicitly reflect some of the concerns raised by Alexander Bickel and other critics. Despite the charge by critics that judges are institutionally ill equipped to participate in the policy‐making process and that legal processes are costly, there are reasons to believe otherwise. This article uses field interviews and three case studies of an environmental dispute in the Pacific Northwest to show that the judiciary can be an institutional venue that enhances public input, can be more inclusive than other venues, and produces positive‐sum outcomes when other venues cannot. The findings also suggest that legislative and agency policymaking are just as contentious and costly as judicial policy‐making processes.     

Interpersonal incomparability in citizens’ views of democracy: survey evidence from Ukraine

ABSTRACT

Do regional differences within a single country influence how survey respondents use response scales when evaluating concepts like democracy? Further, what determines how respondents will assess the level of democracy at home or abroad? We test three hypotheses to answer these questions. First, we hypothesize that differential item function (DIF) exists between regions that are most different along political, cultural, and historical dimensions. Second, we hypothesize that political attitudes will predict views about evaluations of the level of democracy domestically. Third, we hypothesize that regions with stronger ties to and greater affinity for a foreign state will rate that state as more democratic than other regions. We find support for all three hypotheses using a nationally representative survey of Ukraine, but correcting for DIF generates substantively important changes in our interpretations of the results. Specifically, it increases support for hypothesis two but leads to a more measured conclusion about hypothesis three. An analysis of the responses to anchoring vignettes to control for DIF provides some initial suggestive evidence that Ukrainians outside Kyiv may view democracy as more binary in nature than on a nuanced sliding scale. We conclude with recommendations for researchers on deploying anchoring vignettes in sub-national survey research.     

Formalizing China��s armed police: the 2009 PAP Law

While the People??s Armed Police (PAP) has existed in China for over 26 years, the force??s operations, powers and duties have never been formally stipulated. On August 27, 2009, the People??s Armed Police Law was passed by the National People??s Congress. The PAP Law, which contains seven chapters and 38 articles, covers the main areas of the tasks and responsibility, duties and power, safeguard measures, discipline and supervision, and legal responsibilities of the force. The implementation of the PAP Law represents a benchmark development in the history of the Chinese policing. It not only signals official recognition of the need to enhance the legitimacy of China??s social control apparatus, but also maps onto a larger developing trend of progressive legalization of Chinese order today. Although the law provides a legal basis for the existence and functions of a force that plays a critical role in China??s security and stability today, some issues about the boundaries of power and procedures of operation for the PAP remain unaddressed. To what extent that this law will improve the legitimacy and subsequently strengthen the performance of the PAP force is an open question.     

History of Abuse and Current Suicidal Ideation: Results from a Population Based Survey

The relationship between a history of physical or sexual abuse and current suicidal ideation was examined in the current study based on data from the Washington state 2002 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). Out of the total sample of 4081, 1058 indicated they had experienced either physical or sexual abuse before the age of 18, 52 indicated they had experienced physical abuse in the past 12 months, and 210 indicated they had been forced to have sex since the age of 18. Additionally, 106 indicated they had seriously considered committing suicide in the past year. After controlling for such factors as age, gender, income, education, race, employment and marital status and the interactions between different abuse risk factors using multivariate logistic regression, results showed that a history of childhood physical (OR = 2.31, 95% CI = 1.364, 3.90) or sexual (OR = 2.72, 95% CI = 1.58, 4.67) abuse and adult physical (OR = 27.30, 95% CI = 11.64, 64.01) or sexual (OR = 5.87, 95% CI = 3.24, 10.63) abuse all were related to current suicidal ideation. Implications for future research are discussed.