THE LIMITED ROLE OF CHANGING AGE STRUCTURE IN EXPLAINING AGGREGATE CRIME RATES*

Changes in the age structure are shown to have a limited impact on aggregate crime rates. Even the dramatic transformation of the age distribution accompanying the baby boom shifted crime rates by no more than 1 % per year. Projected changes in the age distribution between 1995 and 2010 will lead to slight declines in per capita crime rates. These results are at odds with recent predictions of an impending demographically driven crime wave. Such predictions have focused exclusively on a rise in juvenile crime and ignored the offsetting decreases among adults.     

Terrorist Decision Making and the Deterrence Problem

An ongoing debate among policymakers and terrorism scholars concerns the effectiveness of deterrence as a counterterrorism tool. Absent from the debate is a discussion of the complex nature of terrorist decision making. Decisions are made at varying levels in a terrorist organization, often by actors having different motives, resulting in behavior that is not always fully rational. This article identifies several circumstances when terrorist behavior is not the product of an entirely unitary, rational decision-making process, and therefore highlights when deterrence policies will be least effective. It concludes with some policy implications for understanding when deterrence policies are most likely to succeed and how to address terrorism in other situations.     

Arabia in perspective

British and Soviet Colonial Systems. By Kathleen Stahl. Faber and Faber. Pp. 114. 1951. 12s. 6d.

Mountains of Tartary. By Eric Shipton. Hodder and Stoughton. Pp. 222, 29 photographs. 20s.

Soviets in Central Asia. By W. P. and Zelda Coates. Lawrence and Wishart. 1951. 288 pp., illustrated. 25s.

Reminiscences of a Japanese Diplomat. Vol. I.—Plots, Assassinations, the Sword. Vol. 2.—Pearl Harbour, Lisbon, Tokyo. By M. Morishima. (Japanese text.)

India and the Indian Ocean. An essay on the influence of sea‐power on Indian History. By K. M. Panikkar. George Allen and Unwin. 1951 (first published 1945). 8s. 6d.

The Middle East: A Political and Economic Survey—1950. Royal Institute of International Affairs. Pp. xvi+496. Index. 3 maps. 8/3/4>” × 5/3/4>”. 35s.

Beyond Euphrates. By Freya Stark. London: John Murray. 1951. 8/3/4>×5/1/2>”. Pp. 341. Illustrations and sketch‐map. 25s.

From Town and Tribe. By C. G. Campbell. Ernest Benn. Pp. 217. 10s. 6d.

Arabian Adventurer. The story of Hajji Williamson. By Stanton Hope. London: Robert Hale. 1951. 333 pp., 23 illustrations. 16s.

Éléments de Bio‐bibliographie de la Litterature Arabe. By Joseph Assad Dagher. Imprimerie Saint‐Sauveur, Saida. Pp. 354. No date. 22s.

Middle Kingdom Art in Ancient Egypt. 56 pp., 83 photos. 1950. 6s.

New Kingdom Art in Ancient Egypt. 98 pp., 174 photos. 1951. 15s. By Cyril Aldred. Alec Tiranti, Ltd.

A Sword for Hire. By Peter Lington. 248 pp. W. H. Allen. 9s. 6d.     

Cultivating Public Service Motivation through AmeriCorps Service: A Longitudinal Study

The public service motivation literature has helped scholars and practitioners better understand who is attracted to public service and why. However, little is understood about how public service motivation in individuals may be cultivated or how it changes over time. This article uses panel data collected by the Corporation for National and Community Service to track the longitudinal effects of participation in the AmeriCorps national service program on participants’ public service motivation. Findings reveal that participation in AmeriCorps programs had positive effects on participants’ levels of commitment to the public interest and civic awareness immediately after the program; many of these program effects were sustained seven years later. However, when observed in isolation, the comparison group showed significant declines in levels of commitment to public interest and civic awareness over an eight‐year period, suggesting that public service motivation may initially decline upon entry into a public service career.     

The quantification of fingerprint quality using a relative contrast index

Research into fingermark enhancement techniques has traditionally used visual comparisons and qualitative methods to assess their effectiveness based on the quality of the developed fingermark. However, with increasing research into the optimisation of these techniques the need for a quantitative evaluative method has arisen. Parameters for acceptable fingerprint quality are not well defined and generally encompass clear, sharp edges and high levels of contrast between the fingermark ridges and background material. Using these current parameters, a conclusive measurement of fingerprint quality and thus the effectiveness of development techniques cannot be achieved.This study presents a model through which an aspect of fingerprint quality can be objectively and impartially measured based on a relative contrast index, constructed through measuring the reflective intensity of the fingermark ridges against the background material. Using a fibre-optic spectrophotometer attached to a microscope with axial illumination, the intensity counts of the ridge detail and background material were measured and a logarithmic contrast index constructed. The microscope and spectrophotometer parameters were experimentally tested using a standard colour resolution chart with known reflective properties. The protocol was successfully applied to four sample groups: black inked fingerprints on white paper; latent fingermarks on white paper developed separately with ninhydrin and physical developer; and fingermarks in blood deposited on white tiles and enhanced with amido black. The contrast indices obtained quantitatively reflect the level of contrast and provide an indication of fingerprint quality through a numerical representation rather than previous qualitative methods. It has been suggested that the proposed method of fingerprint quantification may be viable for application in the forensic research arena as it allows the definitive measurement of contrast to aid the evaluation of fingermark detection and enhancement techniques.     

Thirty-one Years of Irish-Chinese Diplomatic Relations

IN 2010, in the midst of economic turmoil, Irish society is enriched because of its close friendship with China and the Chinese people; a friendship that is based on mutual respect, cultural understanding and trust.     

Using GIS to evaluate post-release prisoner services in Newark, New Jersey

Discharge planning is increasingly prioritized by correctional systems in order to prepare prisoners for their reintegration into society. A goal of discharge planning is to link prisoners with appropriate service providers in the community to meet their needs. A successful discharge plan requires that an optimal level of services exist and work in a coordinated and collaborative way in order to ensure a continuum of care and treatment during the reentry process (Queralt & Witte, 1999). This study utilized Geographic Information System (GIS) to assess the size, demographic characteristics, and needs of the Newark, New Jersey parolee population with the availability, location, and characteristics of health and human service agencies servicing their needs. A random sample of parolees (N = 800) released in 2006 was selected for this study. Social service agency data were obtained from an on-line service agency data base. Results of the analysis include the degree of spatial distribution, accessibility, and availability of services to where the parolees live and the degree of spatial overlap of specific services in an area.     

THE VALUE OF THE REMUNERATION OF HIGH CIVIL SERVANTS IN BRITAIN IN THE 20TH CENTURY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS

The article traces a large real and comparative decline in the rewards of high civil servants in Great Britain over the 20th century, accelerating since about 1970. It relates this to developments in the market for ‘high quality’ graduates and to changes in public and governmental attitudes which have affected the size, organization and role of the civil service. It discusses possible causes of the decline in top rewards in terms of three explanatory approaches suggested by social scientists – the ‘institutional’, the ‘cultural’, and the views of the ‘Chicago School’. Finally, following an examination of changes in the way senior British civil servants are now recruited and remunerated, it considers possible outcomes in terms of effects on the part they can play in the governmental process.