Permanent teeth development in a Spanish sample. Application to dental age estimation

The purpose of this study is to clarify the chronology of different stages of dental development, according to Demirjian, in a sample of Spanish children, which will enable us to build a database that will be used as a reference in regard to the dental development of individuals of our socio-geographic environment. In the same studied sample, a calculation of the dental age according to Demirjian was carried out. This study was conducted in a final sample consisting of 1010 orthopantograms, corresponding to Spanish children (485 boys and 525 girls) ages 2-16. Comparing the age of onset of the different stages among the children, evidence was found that girls had an earlier general development than boys. These differences were only statistically significant in teeth and concrete stages. The canine teeth revealed greater gender dimorphism, with significant differences in all stages compared with the upper canines. The method proposed by Demirjian for dental age calculation resulted in a significant overestimation of dental age in relation to the chronological age in boys (average of 0.87 years) and girls (average of 0.55 years). Data from this study may be used as reference for dental maturity, as well as a standard for estimating age in Spanish children.     

Predicting discharge in forensic psychiatry: the legal and psychosocial factors associated with long and short stays in forensic psychiatric hospitals

In Germany, both the number of patients treated in forensic psychiatric hospitals and the average inpatient treatment period have been increasing for over thirty years. Biographical and clinical factors, e.g., the number of prior offences, type of offence, and psychiatric diagnosis, count among the factors that influence the treatment duration and the likelihood of discharge. The aims of the current study were threefold: (1) to provide an estimate of the German forensic psychiatric patient population with a low likelihood of discharge, (2) to replicate a set of personal variables that predict a relatively high, as opposed to a low, likelihood of discharge from forensic psychiatric hospitals, and (3) to describe a group of other factors that are likely to add to the existing body of knowledge. Based on a sample of 899 patients, we applied a battery of primarily biographical and other personal variables to two subgroups of patients. The first subgroup of patients had been treated in a forensic psychiatric hospital according to section 63 of the German legal code for at least ten years (long-stay patients, n=137), whereas the second subgroup had been released after a maximum treatment period of four years (short-stay patients, n=67). The resulting logistic regression model had a high goodness of fit, with more than 85% of the patients correctly classified into the groups. In accordance with earlier studies, we found a series of personal variables, including age at first admission and type of offence, to be predictive of a short or long-stay. Other findings, such as the high number of immigrants among the short-stay patients and the significance of a patient's work time before admission to a forensic psychiatric hospital, are more clearly represented than has been observed in previous research.     

Are there population differences in minutiae frequencies? A comparative study of two Argentinian population samples and one Spanish sample

In recent years, both scientific and judicial sources have highlighted the need for more knowledge about minutiae variability, in order to improve their statistical application to fingerprint identification. In line with this trend toward improving our knowledge of this subject, the aim of the present study was to calculate the frequency with which 20 types of minutiae appeared in 2780 fingerprint impressions obtained from 278 individuals from two Argentinian population samples (100 individuals from Ramal and 178 from Puna-Quebrada). The different types of minutiae were located, identified, and quantified visually in two areas on the fingerprint, the inside and outside of a circle, the radius of which cut fifteen ridges perpendicularly, starting from the center cut of the axes defining the sectors. The non-equiprobability found in both population samples for the different minutiae types studied demonstrated that the evidential weight provided by these characteristics is not the same when applied in identification processes, whether used quantitatively (numerical standard) or qualitatively (holistic method). The results obtained for both populations were compared statistically with those published previously for a Spanish population sample, which had been collected using the same methodology. This comparison has enabled us to demonstrate, for the first time, the existence of significant differences between populations in minutiae frequencies, independently from the main pattern type.     

大部制改革:期待、沉思与展望——基于对五大部委改革的调研

人们对中国2008年大部制改革充满着诸多期待。基于五大部委的实证调研,可以发现改革取得了明显成效,也发现因缺乏系统性理论研究、整体安排、政策支撑和法制保障以及部门利益作祟、资源割据盛行、平行等差掣肘等造成改革未能实现预期目标。本文认为,下一步完善大部制改革的两个关键是构建科学的大部制和科学地构建大部制。     

The Sociology of New Wars? Assessing the Causes and Objectives of Contemporary Violent Conflicts

The recent accounts of the new war paradigm have been thoroughly scrutinized in a variety of disciplines from security studies and international relations to political economy. The general trend is to focus on the scope, methods, tactics, strategies, forms of war, and/or the level of atrocity. However, there has been little sustained attempt to assess structural causes and the arguments about the changing aims of contemporary warfare. This paper provides a critical analysis of the macro sociological accounts of the new war paradigm with a spotlight on the purpose and causes of the recent wars. The author argues that despite the development of elaborate models, the sociology of contemporary warfare rests on shaky foundations and hence fails to convince. Rather than witnessing a dramatic shift in the causes and objectives of contemporary violent conflict, one encounters a significant transformation in the social and historical context in which these wars are waged.     

Note – Walking on Solid Ground: A Replication Study of ‘Housing Health and Happiness’

This note summarises our replication study ‘Housing, Health, and Happiness’, henceforth HHH2009, which constitutes an important paper in the literature of housing and slum upgrading. The original authors conduct a quasi-experimental impact evaluation of ‘Piso Firme’, an intervention that replaced in-house dirt floors with cement in Mexico. We conduct a Pure Replication (PR), a Measurement and Estimation Analysis (MEA), and a Theory of Change Analysis (TCA). In our PR, we did not find any major discrepancy with the original study. In the MEA, we generally find the results to be strongly robust to different types of alternative analysis. Finally, in TCA we explore a dimension that was not reported on the published version of the study and found that households with high initial levels of cement-floor coverage benefitted significantly less from Piso Firme’s intervention. These findings are discussed in greater detail on International Initiative for Impact Evaluation’s (3ie) working paper version.     

国家间信任的生成:进程导向的社会网络分析

信任是影响社会行为体互动的重要变量,但现有国际关系领域的信任研究大多注重经验分析,一般的理论探讨也常常忽视国家间信任的生成问题。本文就现有研究的主要路径进行了梳理和评介,并尝试从社会关系网络的角度建构一个国家间信任生成的研究框架。这一框架沿袭了进程建构主义的基本思路,主要观点为:嵌入在国际社会网络中的信任来源于国家间关系,以关系为本位的网络形塑了信任,信任反过来强化或削弱关系网络;在信任建构的进程中,信任规范得以产生、扩散和内化,进而影响国家的属性和行为;但由于关系网络本身是动态性的,特别是相互关系中存在不对称依赖,这使得信任具有社会资本的分配资源功能。     

Relief Program Sheds Light on the Needy

As the widening gap between the rich and poor has become a major byproduct of China’s nonstop economic growth over the past decades,the improvement of the disadvantaged group’s livelihood has become a top government concern.While numerous cities are working out their plans for"livelihood improvement projects,"local governments are making efforts to establish a sustainable mechanism that provides prompt,adequate relief to the needy.Licheng District in Jinan,capital of Shandong province,sets an example.     

中国入世后,工会面临的挑战及其应对

工会是站在工人一方 ,通过对劳动价格的议价来调节供给与需求关系的。经济全球化削弱了工会的调节能力。企业跨国经营是资本对付工会的现代手段。经济全球化使工会在更高层次上凸现了各国工会的竞争 ,也为中国工会发展提供了新的机遇。产业结构调整必然伴随结构性失业。政府也为此付出了巨大的机会成本。利用WTO缺陷 ,维护企业正当权益也是维护工人的利益。工会也应该研究世界经济和国际贸易规则 ,培养自己的专门人才 ,规避不利于工会及工人的风险。