From uninformed to informed choices: Voters,pre-election polls and updating

Pre-election opinion poll results for U.S. presidential contests have large variation in the early parts of the primary campaigns, yet pre-election opinion polls later in the campaign are typically within several percentage points of the actual outcome of the contest in November. This paper argues this trend demonstrates that voters are beginning to poll “correctly” – that is, to ascertain their most-preferred candidate. This convergence process is consistent with boundedly rational voters making decisions with low information. We examine the process by which voters can use opinion polls to guide their candidate choice. We undertake a series of laboratory experiments where uninformed voters choose between two candidates after participating in a series of pre-election polls. We demonstrate that voters update their beliefs about candidate locations using information contained in the opinion polls. We compare two behavioral models for the updating process and find significant evidence to support a boundedly rational Bayesian updating assumption. This assumption about the updating process is key to many theoretical results which argue that voters have the potential to aggregate information via a coordination signal and for their beliefs to converge to the true state of the world. This finding also indicates that uninformed voters are able to use pre-election polls to help them make correct decisions.     

Reaching Out versus Lashing Out: Examining Gender Differences in Experiences with and Responses to Bullying in High School

The present study examines gender differences in bullying in high school. Unique contributions include comparisons of both victimization and perpetration rates across four subtypes of bullying: physical, verbal, relational, and cyber. Further, as we conceptualize bullying within the larger framework of literature on social rejection, we also address whether there are gender differences in experiencing social rejection–in the form of bullying–and responding with aggression, as opposed to asocial or prosocial behavior. The literature yields mixed findings across these three questions (i.e., gender differences in experiences with victimization and perpetration and responses to those experiences), suggesting sample variations (Archer Review of General Psychology, 8(4), 291–322, 2004; Archer & Coyne Personality and Social Psychology Review, 9, 212–230, 2005; Card, Stucky, Sawalani, & Little Child Development, 79, 1185–1229, 2008). Thus, we explored experiential differences in our sample, and hypothesized based on the tend and befriend model (Taylor et al., 2000) that girls would be more likely than boys to respond to bullying with prosocial behaviors. With regard to victimization and perpetration differences, we found that male students both experienced and perpetrated significantly more physical bullying. Boys were also significantly more likely to report experiencing verbal bullying than girls. No significant differences emerged for relational or cyber bullying. With regard to responses, social withdrawal was more common than aggressive responding, but consistent with the tend and befriend model, girls chose prosocial responses significantly more than boys, whereas boys were just as likely to choose antisocial responding as prosocial responding. These results suggest that gender should be considered in studies addressing the question of when experiences with rejection–in its many forms–results in antisocial versus prosocial behavior.     

Warmth and Unity with All Women? Historicizing Racism in the Australian Women's Movement

In this paper I discuss the four Women and Labour conferences which were held in Australian capital cities over the seven years between 1978 and 1984. I explore the ways in which the history of Australian feminist activism during this period could be written, questioning in particular the claim that the Women and Labour conferences have been central to the history of Australian feminism. I discuss the ways in which a historical sense could be established, using writings about the conferences as historical ‘evidence’, that race and ethnic divisions between women had not been important to the ‘women's movement’ until 1984. In other words, I challenge the construction of this conference as a turning point - not only in the feminist politicization of immigrant and Aboriginal women, but also in the politicization of all feminists about race and ethnic divisions. More broadly, I am interested in how a history would be written if it aimed to get to the ‘truth’ about racism and about the feminist activism of immigrant women. How would the apparent lack of written ‘evidence’ - at least until 1984 - of immigrant women's feminist activism, and of the awareness of Australian feminists about issues of racism, be written into this history? In addition, I suggest that it is important to the writing of feminist history in Australia that published documentation has been mostly produced by anglo women, and is thus partial and mediated by the lived, embodied experiences of anglo women. Finally, my intention is to interrogate commonly understood narratives about Australian feminist history, to challenge their seamlessness, and to suggest the importance of recognizing the tension within feminist discourses between difference as benign diversity and difference as disruption.     

The Role of Group Identity and Personality Domains as Indicators of Self-Reported Delinquency

We investigated the impact of personality factors and group identity factors on self-reported delinquency among high school students. Respondents were 420 Australian youth with a mean age of 15.22 r yrs. The sample comprised 224 males and 196 females. The strongest predictors of delinquency among both males and females were Eysenck's Psychoticism factor and an identity with so-called "rebels". In addition, Extraversion (males) and low self-reported academic achievement (females) were also found to be important factors. It was further concluded that Psychoticism, Agreeableness and Conscientiousness have little in common in their prediction of delinquency. The results are discussed with reference to previous research on the role of personality and group identity factors, and some suggestions for future research are also made.     

On Coase and COVID-19

European Journal of Law and Economics - From an epidemiological perspective, the COVID-19 pandemic is a public health crisis. From an economic perspective, it is an externality and a social cost....