Reporting likelihood ratio for casework in firearm evidence identification

Likelihood ratio (LR) plays an important role in estimating the weight of evidence in firearm evidence identifications. LR is computed from a statistical model including the distribution of the known-matching (KM or within) and known-nonmatching (KNM or between) comparison scores. Current LR procedures rely on KM/KNM scores from existing reference firearm toolmark data sets or alternatively from generating a set of test fires using multiple firearms. Both procedures may contain theoretical or practical issues which may hinder the LR procedures from reporting an unbiased LR estimation in casework. In this paper, a reference data set was established from a set of firearms, each test-fired two cartridge cases, resulting in a basic data set and a control data set. The congruent matching cells (CMC) method was used to generate CMC scores that are used to fit in the KM/KNM statistical distributions for LR estimation. In the initial test, 130 firearms from eight manufacturers were used for generating a reference data set consisting of 260 cartridge cases representing 130 KM and 8385 KNM pairwise breech face images. Test results showed that the KM and KNM distribution intersect at CMC = 2, which is equivalent to LR = 1 (equally to support both the prosecutor and the defense propositions). When the CMC threshold is increased to 6 or more, the LR values are higher than a million, which can provide extremely strong support to the conclusion of the same firearm (or the prosecutor's proposition) in the casework of firearm evidence identification.     

Understanding research methods,limitations, and applications of drug data collected by the National Forensic Laboratory Information System (NFLIS-Drug)

The National Forensic Laboratory Information System (NFLIS) is a drug surveillance program of the US Drug Enforcement Administration that systematically collects data on drugs that are seized by law enforcement and submitted to and analyzed by the Nation's forensic laboratories (NFLIS-Drug). NFLIS-Drug data are increasingly used in predictive modeling and drug surveillance to examine drug availability patterns. Given the complexity of the data and data collection, there are some common methodological pitfalls that we highlight with the aim of helping researchers avoid these concerns. The analysis done for this Technical Note is based on a review of the scientific literature that includes 428 unique, refereed article citations in 182 distinct journals published between January 1, 2005, and April 30, 2021. Each article was analyzed according to how NFLIS-Drug data were mentioned and whether NFLIS-Drug data were included. A sample of 37 articles was studied in-depth, and data issues were summarized. Using examples from the literature, this Technical Note highlights eight broad concerns that have important implications for the proper applications, interpretations, and limitations of NFLIS-Drug data with suggestions for improving research methods and accurate reporting of forensic drug data. NFLIS-Drug data are timely and provide key information to inform drug use trends across the United States; however, our present analysis shows that NFLIS-Drug data are misunderstood and represented in the literature. In addition to highlighting these issues, DEA has created several resources to assist NFLIS data users and researchers, which are summarized in the discussion.     

An unusual blunt force trauma pattern and mechanism to the cranial vault: Investigation of an atypical infant homicide

This case report presents an unusual fracture pattern in the cranium of a four-month-old infant indicative of child abuse. Upon postmortem examination, the infant presented with numerous bilateral linear cranial fractures running perpendicular to the sagittal suture with depressed and curvilinear fractures apparent on the supra-auricular surfaces of the cranium. Histological evidence indicates multiple traumatic events to the cranium. In addition, the stair-step pattern of a parietal fracture may represent multiple contiguous fractures from repeated loading of the head at different times with variation of the focal points of compressive force. Additionally, the left humerus, left radius, and left ulna have healing metaphyseal fractures, and the left ulna also has an antemortem diaphyseal fracture which resulted in the distal metaphysis being rotated 45 degrees medially. Integration of autopsy, anthropological, and neuropathological reports for this case suggest multiple inflicted injury episodes with a repeated atypical mechanism(s) to the cranial vault of the infant. During investigative interviews, the caretaker admitted to squeezing the infant's head and neck on multiple occasions to quiet the child. This reported abusive mechanism is consistent with the pattern of symmetric cranial fractures and soft tissue injuries indicating asphyxiation. This case report provides forensic investigators with a potential trauma mechanism to explore in cases when a similar pattern of cranial trauma is observed and highlights the need for greater research on fracture propagation and fracture healing in the infant cranium.     

Denial of pregnancy and neonaticide: A historical overview and case report

While denial of pregnancy and neonaticide are rare, they are potentially associated and share some risk factors. Neonaticide has been proposed as the extreme outcome of a denial of pregnancy. However, the process leading to such a possible outcome is not yet fully understood. The primary goal of this essay is to examine the various definitions and ambiguities surrounding the denial of pregnancy. The case of a young woman with a history of two denied pregnancies with diverse characteristics and outcomes, the latest of which resulted in neonaticide, is then reported and examined. A forensic psychiatric evaluation was also performed to reconstruct the woman's mental state at the time of the crime. The forensic pathological analysis of the newborn, abandoned near the sea while still alive, is described. The victim's body showed signs of shaken baby syndrome. We contend that differing levels of awareness during a denial of pregnancy might not be predictive of the potential delivery outcome in terms of threat to the newborn's survival, according to the forensic pathological and psychopathological data of the current case. Early identification of women affected by denial of pregnancy who pose a danger of committing infanticide is hampered by both intrinsic traits (dissimulation, unawareness, low propensity to seek assistance) and environmental factors (isolation, low socioeconomic level, poor education.). A previous history of denial of pregnancy should activate health and support services to reduce the potential risks for the mother and the child.     

Postmortem genetic testing in sudden unexplained death: A public health laboratory experience

Sudden unexplained death in the young poses a diagnostically challenging situation for practicing autopsy pathologists, especially in the absence of anatomic and toxicological findings. Postmortem genetic testing may identify pathogenic variants in the deceased of such cases, including those associated with arrhythmogenic channelopathies and cardiomyopathies. The Wisconsin State Laboratory of Hygiene (WSLH) is a state-run public health laboratory which performs postmortem genetic testing at no cost to Wisconsin medical examiners and coroners. The current study examines sequencing data from 18 deceased patients (ages 2 months to 49 years, 5 females) submitted to WSLH, from 2016 to 2021. Panel-based analysis was performed on 10 cases, and whole exome sequencing was performed on the most recent 8 cases. Genetic variants were identified in 14 of 18 decedents (77.8%), including 7 with pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants (38.9%). Whole exome sequencing was more likely to yield a positive result, more variants per decedent, and a larger number of variants of uncertain significance. While panel-based testing may offer definitive pathogenic variants in some cases, less frequent variants may be excluded. Whole exome testing may identify rare variants missed by panels, but increased yield of variants of uncertain significance may be difficult to interpret. Postmortem genetic testing in young decedents of sudden unexplained death can provide invaluable information to autopsy pathologists to establish accurate cause and manner of death and to decedent's relatives to allow appropriate management. A public health laboratory model may be a financially advisable alternative to commercial laboratories for medical examiner's/coroner's offices.     

朝贡体系下古代东亚秩序形成与维系的内在逻辑——批判地借鉴英国学派的分析方法

古代东亚秩序的形成与维系,同历史悠久的朝贡体系有着直接的关系。因此,要有效揭示古代东亚秩序的内在逻辑,应当批判地借鉴以历史主义见长的英国学派的分析方法,探讨朝贡体系的运行机制和内在本质。在古代,中国与朝鲜长时段的朝贡体系实质上是一种由中国主导并以其特有文化为基础、周边诸政权普遍认可和积极参与的特殊国际制度。就中国而言,完全独立的政治体制、自给自足的经济结构、等级制的世界观,使其对外部的需求仅限于其他政权对其至高无上地位的承认及其对相关制度安排的服从。而对周边诸政权来说,只有与实力超强的中国建立朝贡关系,它们才能获得合法性和安全保障,并取得与中国贸易的机会,从而实现生存与发展两大目标。由此可以得出如下结论:在缺乏文化共识的前提下,由地区强国主导,可以促成某种功能性的国际制度,使地区秩序得以维护,并在交往过程中反向促成文化认同。这一结论修正了英国学派关于共有文化与国际制度的关系的观点。     

The effect of household corrosive substances on latent fingermark development in the context of deliberate corrosive substance attacks

Corrosive substance attacks (CSA) are a prevalent issue in the UK with 525 offenses involving a corrosive substance reported to the police in the year ending March 2022. Easy availability, low cost, and concealability in public are common reasons for choosing a corrosive substance as a weapon. The Metropolitan Police revealed that 68% of 1849 CSA cases resulted in no suspect identified or evidential difficulties. There is limited research into the effect of corrosive substances on latent fingermarks. This study aimed to determine the potential for fingermarks to be recovered from surfaces exposed to a household corrosive substance within the context of a deliberate CSA. Natural and sebaceous-loaded fingermarks were exposed to Domestos bleach, Harpic limescale remover (hydrochloric acid-based) and lemon juice. Harpic limescale remover had the most detrimental effect, with only 7.1% of fingermarks (n = 378) exposed being identifiable (defined as sufficient clear ridge detail for identification) after enhancement, followed by bleach with only 10.3% of fingermarks (n = 378) identifiable. Lemon juice had the least detrimental effect on fingermarks, with 40.5% fingermarks (n = 378) identifiable compared to 53.4% for the controls (not exposed to any substance; n = 378). Throughout the study, fewer natural fingermarks were identifiable after exposure to corrosive substances compared to sebaceous fingermarks which was as expected. Overall, this study demonstrated that there is potential to recover latent fingermarks, depending on their composition, following exposure to a household corrosive substance. This area warrants further research to establish best practice to maximize the potential to recover identifiable fingermarks.