Mixing Habermas with Bayes: Methodological and Theoretical Advances in the Study of Deliberation

Two challenges stand out in the study of deliberation: the development of appropriate methodological tools and the development of more unified analytical frameworks. On the one hand, analysing deliberative processes is demanding and time‐consuming; hence we tend to have only few and non‐randomly selected cases at the group or context level. In addition, the real world of deliberation presents us with a complex matrix of nested, cross‐classified, and repeated speakers. This article shows that Bayesian multi‐level modelling provides an elegant way to tackle these methodological problems. On the other hand, we attempt to enrich comparative institutionalism with individual characteristics and psychologically relevant variables (such as group composition). Focusing on Swiss and German parliamentary debates we show that institutional factors ‐ in particular, consensus systems ‐, the gender composition of committees and plenary sessions, and age matter for the quality of deliberation. Furthermore, we also show that partisan affiliation ‐ government or opposition status of MPs ‐ affects deliberative quality and can refine institutional arguments. We conclude that a multi‐level approach to deliberation focusing on contextual and actor‐related characteristics and using Bayesian hierarchical modelling paves the way toward a more advanced understanding ‐ and methodological handling ‐ of deliberative processes.     

Political participation in Swiss referenda at federal and cantonal levels: 1879–1981

Political participation in the process of semidirect democracy differs in several important respects from political participation in elections in representative democracies. This study discusses patterns of participation in 300 referenda at the cantonal and federal level in Switzerland during the 1879–1981 period. The purpose of this survey is to account for cross-temporal and cross-cantonal variations in terms of: (a) referenda type, (b) competition intensity, and (c) the influence of a multiple political culture. The findings suggest that distinctive political cultures and life styles, and other collective factors account for turn-out percentages and competition intensity. Voters tend to mobilize essentially to reject constitutional revisions and laws rather than accept them. The significance of cross-temporal differences was found to diminish during the 1952–1981 period. This tendency toward increasing standardization of Swiss political participation does not, however, completely blur the specificity of participation within cantons, suggesting that the multicultural nature of Swiss society is still prevalent.