Zero-base budgeting: some lessons from an inconclusive experiment

Abstract. This paper describes the consequences of an experiment conducted with four governmental programs intended to evaluate the utility of ZBB for improving public sector decision-making. The results of this experiment were mixed. On the one hand, we clearly observed greater participation by operating managers in the formulation of budgets. This, we were frequently told, had positive consequences for staff development and program planning. The zbb experiment also resulted in the generation of more and better information in support of budget requests. However, information has value only to the extent that it increases the probability that decision makers will choose better options than they would without it. In no case was it possible to identify changes in budget amounts or program content that might not have occurred following standard budgeting practices. We do not believe the absence of fiscal or program impact resulting from this experience is in any way conclusive evidence against zbb , but it should serve as a warning to the unwary or over-enthusiastic user. Sommaire. Cet article fait état d'une expérience conduite sur quatre programmes gouvernementaux dans le but d'évaluer l'utilité de la méthode zbb comme moyen d'améliorer le processus de décision à l'intérieur du secteur public. Les résultats de l'expérience sont partagés. D'une part, il apparaît évident que cette méthode suscite plus de participation chez les gestionnaires dans la formulation des budgets; cette participation accrue produit — nous a-t-on affirméà plusieurs reprises — des effets positifs sur le perfectionnement du personnel et sur la planification des programmes. L'expérience a eu aussi pour effet d'engendrer des informations plus nombreuses et de meilleure qualité aux fins de justification des demands budgétaires. Cependant, l'information n'a de valeur que dans la mesure où elle augmente la probabilité que de meilleurs choix seront effectués. Or, dans aucun cas, il n'a été possible d'identifier des changements dans les budgets alloués ou dans le contenu des programmes qui ne seraient pas survenus avec l'emploi des méthodes traditionnelles de préparation des budgets. Nous ne croyons pas que cette absence d'impact sur la fiscalité ou sur les programmes témoigne de façon concluante contre la méthode du zbb , mais c'est une mise en garde pour ceux qui seraient tentés de surestimer les avantages de cette méthode.     

Cyberfraud and the implications for effective risk-based responses: themes from UK research

The nature of the risk or threat posed by ‘cyberfraud’ - fraud with a cyber dimension – is examined empirically based on data reported by the public and business to Action Fraud. These are used to examine the implications for a more effective risk-based response, both by category of fraud and also responding to cyberfraud generally, not just in the UK. A key characteristics of cyberfraud is that it can be globalised, unless there are major national differences in attractiveness of targets or in the organisation of control. This does not mean that all cyberfraud is international, however: not only do some involve face to face interactions at some stage of the crime cycle, but in online auction selling frauds, it appears to be common for the perpetrators and victims to reside in the same country. After reviewing patterns and costs of victimisation and their implications for control, the paper concludes that any law enforcement response must begin by being strategic: which other public and private sector bodies should be involved to do what; what should be the specific roles and responsibilities of the police and where ‘problem ownership’ should lie; what are we willing to pay for (in money and effort) for greater cybersecurity and how to reduce ‘market failure’ in its supply; and, how that security is going to be organised for and/or by the huge numbers of businesses and people that are (potentially) affected.     

Assessing Sexual Coercion: Survey Wording Differences and the Victimization-Perpetration Discrepancy

The current study examined the impact of item wording on self-reported sexual assault perpetration and victimization rates. The Sexual Experiences Survey (SES; Koss et al. in Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 55, 162–170, 1987) is a self-report assessment of female sexual victimization and male sexual perpetration. Studies using the SES consistently report a marked discrepancy between victimization rates and perpetration rates. The wording of the SES items asks respondents to report whether experiences occurred in the absence of female want. It was hypothesized that modified items, which did not require an analysis of female want, would yield increased male response rates compared to the original SES, but that female rates would be equivalent across versions. Parallel male and female SES items, for coercive sexual contact and intercourse, were compared with modified items. Analyses of the data confirmed the hypothesis that modified items yielded increased reports for males in the contact and intercourse conditions. Female response rates on modified items were increased in the contact condition, but not the intercourse condition. Implications of these findings were discussed.     

Differential enforcement across police jurisdictions and client demand in paid sex markets

Police officers on the ground, as well as their senior officers, generally accept the view that arresting prostitutes and their clients is simply not as important as arresting many other types of ‘offenders’. Police officer preferences and priorities will differ such that the discretion applied to the enforcement of paid sex market related offences varies across locations. Motivated by increasing policymaker interest in considering demand-side policies, a simple model is developed to help analyse how clients will be likely to respond to enforcement level differences across jurisdictions. A range of policy implications that arise are also identified and discussed.     

Never mind the quality feel the width: University–industry links and government financial support for innovation in small high-technology businesses in the UK and the USA

In this paper we use a size and industry matched sample of over 1,900 UK and US businesses for the period 2004–05 in the manufacturing and business services sectors to analyse the relative “strength” of the university–industry ecosystems in which these firms operate in the two economies. Our analysis shows that in both countries universities per se play a quantitatively smaller role as a source of knowledge for business innovation than either the business sector itself or a variety of organisations intermediating between the university and business sectors. Our analysis reveals a much more diffuse university–industry ecosystem in the UK in which a higher proportion of businesses claim links external to themselves in their pursuit of knowledge for innovation and a higher proportion report directly connecting with universities. US firms are more likely to access knowledge through a combination of business and intermediary sources and are less likely to have established formal collaborative or partnership agreements in the 3 years prior to the survey. We also find, however, that a higher proportion of US firms place a very high value on the connections they have with universities and are much more likely to commit resources to support such innovation related university interactions. A similar pattern of diffuse but weaker links characterise the supply of public sector financial assistance for innovation in our sample firms. UK firms are more likely to be in receipt of assistance, but receive far less per firm in absolute terms and relative to their R&D expenditures. It appears that the UK university–industry ecosystem is characterised by a greater width than quality of interaction.     

Cocaine‐Induced Intracerebral Hemorrhage in a Patient with Cerebral Amyloid Angiopathy*

Abstract: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a well‐recognized complication of recreational cocaine use. The precise mechanism of the cocaine‐induced hemorrhagic event is unclear, although multiple factors have been implicated. We report a case of a 62‐year‐old woman who suffered left parieto‐occipital ICH with herniation and death, following a cocaine binge. Microscopic examination also revealed extensive cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) in the vicinity of the hemorrhage. We additionally studied brain tissue in eight subjects between ages of 60 and 80 who were positive for cocaine metabolites at autopsy; of these, none had vascular amyloid‐β deposits by immunohistochemistry. Whereas we found no evidence that chronic cocaine use is a risk factor for CAA, given the age‐associated nature of CAA and the aging population using cocaine, CAA‐induced hemorrhage in the setting of cocaine use may be more common than recognized. This is the first reported case of CAA‐associated ICH precipitated by cocaine.     

Multiple Imputation of the Supplementary Homicide Reports, 1976–2005

The Supplementary Homicide Reports (SHR), assembled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), have for many years represented the most valuable source of information on the patterns and trends in murder and non-negligent manslaughter. Despite their widespread use by researchers and policy makers alike, these data are not completely without their limitations, the most important of which involves missing or incomplete incident reports. In this analysis, we develop methods for addressing missing data in the 1976–2005 SHR cumulative file, related to both non-reports (unit missingness) and incomplete reports (item missingness). For incomplete case data (that is, missing characteristics on victims, offenders or incidents), we implement a multiple imputation (MI) approach based on a log-linear model for incomplete multivariate categorical data. Then, to adjust for unit missingness, we adopt a weighting scheme linked to FBI annual estimates of homicide counts by state and National Center for Health Statistics mortality data on decedent characteristics in coroners’ reports for deaths classified as homicide. The result is a fully-imputed SHR database for 1976–2005. This paper examines the effects of MI and case weighting on victim/offender/incident characteristics, including standard errors of parameter estimates resulting from imputation uncertainty.

Perpetrators of sexual assault continuing to have sex with their victims following the initial assault: evidence for evolved reproductive strategies

Among a sample of college students, roughly 30% of the women and 12% of the men reported having been the victim of a sexual assault sometime in their lives. Of the assault victims, approximately 23% of both sexes stated that they had sexual intercourse with their assaulters on at least one subsequent occasion. Female victims of a completed sexual assault were significantly more likely to continue being sexually active with their assailants than were female victims who managed to block the assault, while no such difference was found for male victims. This would imply that some men are using assaultive tactics to secure sex partners beyond a single sexual episode, thereby enhancing their potential reproductive success in evolutionary terms. Also, men who committed sexual assault reported having had more lifetime sex partners than did sexually experienced men with no sexual assault history. Overall, the idea that sexual assault is part of an evolved reproductive strategy is consistent with findings from this study.     

THE STOCHASTIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PATENTS AND ANTITRUST

This article develops a novel theory by which to construe theinteraction between the patent and antitrust laws. The rulesof these respective disciplines are often portrayed as conflictingin means, yet harmonious in purpose. Although the intellectualproperty and antitrust laws have ostensibly divergent viewson the role of competition, their interaction is typically limitedto one of constraint. More specifically, antitrust rules havebeen (poorly) designed to limit the exclusivity inherent ina patent grant to the claimed invention alone. This article,however, articulates a new vision for the role of antitrust:it posits that competition rules operate as a stochastic regulatorof exclusionary patent rights. The Sherman Act constrains patentees'efforts to positively transform the probabilistic nature oftheir intellectual property rights through contract. Yet, becausethe empirical calculation of optimal innovation rates is anelusive, if not Sisyphean, task, the normative desirabilityof the foregoing fact is abstruse. Nevertheless, policymakers'inability to pinpoint precisely the ex post rewards requiredto trigger ideal levels of ex ante investment need not bindour hands to inaction. If contemporary rates of innovation aredeemed acceptable (even if not necessarily perfect), there maybe ways to trigger equivalent levels of ex ante investment withlower social cost. In this regard, it is clear that currentlyenacted competition rules significantly accentuate the uncertaintysurrounding patents' apotropaic effect. Concluding that contractssecuring otherwise stochastic rights may be highly desirable,the article calls for the incorporation of this concern intocontemporary rules, with modest substantive effect, and furtheradvocates a qualified antitrust immunity for "gold-plated" patentsif and when they are introduced.