从利益攸关方到战略再保证:霸权衰落下的中美关系

近五年来,美国对华政策定位经历了从利益攸关方、中美国、G2到战略再保证的转变,也成为当前国际关系领域研究的热门话题。这种转变与美国霸权衰落紧密相连,是美国为了延续霸权,希望中国继续融入其霸权体系的手段之一。面对复杂多变的国际局势,战略选择成为中国当前必须慎之又慎的问题。历史证明,与霸权国的对抗没有出路,因此中国只能选择合作。机制化的双边协调对话必然是今后中美关系保持良性发展的趋势,也是中国努力的方向,但也必须时刻警惕美国对华战略中的陷阱。     

东亚区域的生产分工、产品需求结构与贸易模式转型

东亚区域生产分工经历了产业间、产业内和产品内三种分工形式以及雁行和生产网络两种分工模式的演进路径,并且影响着东亚区域内产品需求结构的变化。对外部最终产品市场的严重依赖是东亚区域产品需求结构的主要特征,东亚区域外需主导型的贸易模式亟待转型。中国在东亚贸易模式转型过程中将发挥重要的作用。     

后美国时代的权力结构变迁与国际制度改革——基于八国集团改革的理论思考

权力结构与制度变革的关系探讨历来是国际问题研究的核心之一。金融危机爆发后,国际权力结构进入一个后美国时代,权力的分散但非匀质化是其显著特征。本文认为,制度改革是权力结构变迁过程中的合理性诉求,结构的变迁会对原有制度框架内的支配国和受益者形成某种改革压力。另一方面,权力结构变迁的长期性决定了制度改革的继承性和包容性。从总体上看,世界权力关系的变迁将会导致国际规则的调整和完善,倾向于制度的不断演化而非完全替代。     

中印油气外交:“新大角逐”、“互利互赢”或“独立平行”

近年来,19世纪的口号"大角逐"在国际能源领域再次抬头。但是,西方学者往往选择少数案例来证明油价上升的主要原因是中国与印度的竞争,以及油田的买卖。本文通过对中印竞争、合作与独立购买案例的实证调研,认为双方的竞争与合作案例的数量不仅少,而且两类交易的数量相当,相比之下,平行独立的中印能源外交案例最多。中印两国能源公司都基本遵照市场规律与游戏规则,而且多数能源行动并不属于过时的份额油"大角逐"。     

Treating International Institutions as Social Environments

Socialization theory is a neglected source of explanations for cooperation in international relations. Neorealism treats socialization (or selection, more properly) as a process by which autistic non-balancers are weeded out of the anarchical international system. Contractual institutionalists ignore or downplay the possibilities of socialization in international institutions in part because of the difficulties in observing changes in interests and preferences. For constructivists socialization is a central concept. But to date it has been undertheorized, or more precisely, the microprocesses of socialization have been generally left unexamined. This article focuses on two basic microprocesses in socialization theory—persuasion and social influence—and develops propositions about the social conditions under which one might expect to observe cooperation in institutions. Socialization theories pose questions for both the structural-functional foundations of contractual institutionalist hypotheses about institutional design and cooperation, and notions of optimal group size for collective action.     

Modeling eligibility under national systems of compensation for treatment injury

How can different schemes of compensation for treatment injury be evaluated? This article offers an empirical approach to assessment based on the simulation of alternative models of eligibility using real-world data. It draws on information about adverse events generated from a representative survey of public hospital admissions in New Zealand and classifies these under a range of eligibility criteria for different possible compensation systems. These are then evaluated according to a number of policy design considerations, using variables available from the New Zealand study.     

Norberto Bobbio,liberal socialism and the problem of language

Norberto Bobbio's theory of procedural democracy grows out of his refusal of totalising knowledge in favour of a belief that the ‘sparrow's’ view is preferable to that of the ‘eagle’. Only in this way is irreducible human difference protested. History is reduced by Bobbio from both its liberal and its marxist presumptions about its total sense to a realm of partial empirical proof for assertions about the good. It cannot be understood as more than a contested area of facts whose overall laws and telos cannot be known. The good can only be agreed upon in a debate. Thus he sees politics as a place where all voices must be heard and consensus arrived at on contingent and limited goods. Thus practically politics becomes today the practice of more representative democracy in more places. The condition for such a practice is a liberal socialist regime of rights. His valuable theory of procedural democracy as the defender of difference in society finds its limits in an undeveloped theory of communication across difference. What is a common acceptable, undistorted language for the debate?     

MEDIATION IN THE FAMILY COURT OF AUSTRALIA

The chief justice of the Australian Family Court discusses the use of mediation in the Family Court of Australia. He traces the legislative origin and the basic purposes of the service. Of particular interest is the differentiation between mediation, conciliation, and the court process. The limitations are also discussed, especially the use of mediation in domestic violence situations.     

Courting His Majesty: USAED in King Hassan's Morocco

Thus history suggests that dictators come in two types: one whose personal objectives often conflict with [economic] growth promotion and another whose interests dictate a preoccupation with economic development. The theory that determines which kind of dictatorship will prevail is missing. Absent this theory, the choice of a dictatorship can be viewed as a risky investment; economic outcomes may be very good or very bad but are surely uncertain