The 1992, 1994 and 1996 elections: A comment and a forecast

A model of the two-way relationship between elections and the economy, previously estimated on historical data for 1916–1988, is applied to the United States elections of 1992, 1994, and 1996. The 1992 result was a surprise to the model since the economy had performed reasonably well that election year. The midterm elections of 1994 were accurately forecast. The Republicans took control of Congress not because of unusual circumstances but because of a normal midterm cycle. President Clinton's chances in 1996 look dim given the current modest growth rate and an electoral bias favoring Republican presidential candidates. But an alternative model, keyed more to the voters choosing Clinton to balance the Republican Congress, gives him a reasonable chance of reelection.     

The effects of cashing-out food stomps on household food use and the cost of issuing benefits

The recent report produced by Vice President Gore's committee on government efficiency highlights the importance of streamlining government operations. But often there are trade-offs between administrative streamlining and accomplishing substantive program objectives. This article examines these tradeoffs in the context of the Food Stamp Program, an important component of the United States' safety net for providing low-income assistance. We estimate impacts on both administrative costs and substantive outcomes (participant food expenditures) resulting from issuing program benefits in the form of checks rather than the usual food coupons. The findings, which are based on experimental tests of the cashout approach in parts of Alabama and California, suggest that significant cost savings can be attained through cashout but that these savings may be achieved at the cost of weakening the program's ability to achieve its substantive objective of encouraging food use.     

B. Reviews: general

i. SHADOWS ON THE SAND: THE MEMOIRS OP SIR GAWAIN BELL. By (SIR) GAWAIN BELL. London, C.Hurst/New York, St Martins, 1983. pp.xiv, 258, 2 maps and index. El3.50.

ii. THE SUDAN MEMOIRS OF CARL CHRISTIAN GIEGLER PASHA. Edited by RICHARD HILL. Translated from the German by THIRZA KÜPPER. With a foreword by the Pasha's great‐granddaughter, HEIDI GROHA. Oxford, Oxford University Press (for the British Academy), pp. xxxii, 231, 3 maps, 12 plates. £18.00.

iii. EGYPT IN THE REIGN OF MUHAMMAD ALI. By AFAF LUTFI AL‐SAYYID MARSOT. (Cambridge Middle East Library) Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1984. pp.x, 300. £25.00.

iv. URBAN NOTABLES AND ARAB NATIONALISM: THE POLITICS OF DAMASCUS. By PHILIP S. KHOURY. (Cambridge Middle East Library) Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1983. pp.153, 2 maps.

v. VICTIMS OF A MAP. Translated by ABDULLAH AL‐UDHARI. London, Al‐Saqi Books, 1984. pp.165. £4.95.

vi. PALESTINE AND MODERN ARAB POETRY. By KHALID A. SULAIMAN. London, Zed Books Ltd., 1984. pp.240. £6.95.

vii. L'ARABIE DU SUD: HISTOIRE ET CIVILISATION. By JOSEPH CHELHOD and others. Paris, Maisonneuve & Larose, 1984. pp.264. 21 illustrations, maps, tables. FF 94.

viii. THE TWO YEMENS. By ROBIN BIDWELL. Harlow (UK), Longman/Boulder (USA), Westview. 1983. pp.350.

ix. BAHRAIN AND THE GULF: PAST PERSPECTIVES AND ALTERNATIVE FUTURES. Edited by JEFFREY B. NUGENT and THEODORE H. THOMAS. London, Croom Helm, 1985. pp.221, 26 tables, 4 figs., bibliography. £16.95.

x. THE ARABS. New Edition. By PETER MANSFIELD. Harmondsworth, Penguin, 1985. pp.510, map, index. £4.95/$6.95.

xi. THE EVOLUTION OF MIDDLE EASTERN LANDSCAPES: AN OUTLINE TO AD 1840. By J.M. WAGSTAFF. London, Croom Helm, 1983. pp.304, 459 maps and figs., 5 tables.

xii. THE GREEK MINORITY OF ISTANBUL AND GREEK‐TURKISH RELATIONS 1918–1974. By ALEXIS ALEXANDRIS. Athens, Centre for Asia Minor Studies, 1983.

xiii. SEX AND SOCIETY IN ISLAM: BIRTH CONTROL BEFORE THE NINETEENTH CENTURY. By B.F.MUSALLAM. (Cambridge Studies in Islamic Civilizations). Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1983. pp.ix, 176. £17.50.

xiv. TOWARDS A JUST MONETARY SYSTEM. By MUHAMMAD U. CHAPRA. Leicester (UK), The Islamic Foundation, 1985. pp.292. £10.00 (hardback); £4.75 (paperback).

xv. INSURANCE IN AN ISLAMIC ECONOMY. By MUHAMMAD NEJATULLAH SIDDIQUI. Leicester (UK), The Islamic Foundation, 1985. £5.50 (hardback); £2.00 (paperback).

xvi. PARTNERSHIP AND PROFIT SHARING IN ISLAMIC LAW. By MUHAMMAD NEJATULLAH SIDDIQUI. Leicester (UK), The Islamic Foundation, 1985. pp.111. £6.50 (hardback); £2.25 (paperback).

xvii. THE IMMORTAL ATATURK: A PSYCHOBIOGRAPHY. By VAMIK D. VOLKAN and NORMAN ITZKOWITZ. Chicago‐London, Chicago University Press, 1984. pp.xxv, 374. £34.50.

xviii. TURKEY. MERI REPORT. Compiled by MIDDLE EAST RESEARCH INSTITUTE. London, Croom Helm, 198 3. pp.181. £35.00

xix. BORDER AND TERRITORIAL DISPUTES. Edited by ALAN J.DAY. (A Keesing's Reference Publication). Harlow, Longman, 1982. pp.406, 44 maps. £45.00

xx. ‘IF ONLY MY PEOPLE...’ By IMMANUEL JAKOBOVITS. London, Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1984. pp.288.

xxi. L'IMPRIMERIE ARABE EN OCCIDENT (XVIe, XVIIe XVIIIe SIÈCLES). By JOSÉE BALAGNA. (Islam & Occident, 2.) Paris, Maisonneuve & Larose, 1984. pp.153. 68F.