Do Risky Microfinance Borrowers Really Invest in Risky Projects? Experimental Evidence from Bolivia

Abstract

This paper reports the results of an experiment testing a fundamental assumption in Stiglitz and Weiss’ (1981) model of credit rationing: that defaulting borrowers are associated with investment in risky projects. Through an artefactual field experiment with 200 Bolivian microfinance borrowers, we observe that subjects from real-world delinquent borrowing groups do not prefer risky projects to safer ones significantly more than subjects from repaying groups. Instead, our results support more recent behavioural theories of credit market failure. Implications are that defaulting microfinance borrowers may be those who take too little investment risk rather than those who take too much.     

Die politischen Konsequenzen der niedrigen Wahlbeteiligung bei der Europawahl 2009

If electoral abstention is linked to party preferences, low turnout—as witnessed in European Parliament elections—may hurt some parties and benefit others. In order to assess this possibility, we compare, in the member states of the EU, parties’ vote shares in the 2009 European Parliament elections with the results that would have been obtained had turnout reached the level of national general elections. We find that the effects of low turnout are minimal, and that—except for a single seat—higher turnout would not have resulted in a different composition of the European Parliament.     

Influences of accent and ethnic background on perceptions of eyewitness testimony

Abstract

The purpose of the present work was to investigate the effect two eyewitness factors, accent and ethnic background, have on the perceived favorability of eyewitness testimony and case disposition in criminal trials. Six variations of testimony were created and videotaped. The videotapes varied by accent and ethnic background of the eyewitness; the testimony text was identical. Four eyewitness favorability variables, (a) credibility, (b) judgment of accuracy, (c) deceptiveness, and (d) prestige, as well as their relationship to case disposition, were measured. One hundred and seventy-four undergraduate participants viewed one of the six videotapes. Results indicate that there was a significant main effect of accent for the four eyewitness favorability variables. Accent by ethnic background interactions also yielded significant findings for the four variables as well as for the defendant's degree of guilt. Results were interpreted using the Elaboration Likelihood Model. The potential importance of these results for judicial settings is discussed.     

公共财政视野下的《预算法》修改

《预算法》是我国最重要的民生法律,其修改引起社会的广泛关注。2011年11月16日,国务院讨论并通过了《中华人民共和国预算法修正案（草案）》,     

Delayed elimination in humans after ingestion of colchicine: Two fatal cases of colchicine poisoning

Colchicine has been widely used in the treatment of acute gout over the years, but it has a narrow therapeutic index, and overdose can be life threatening. A method using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry system was applied in two fatal cases of colchicine poisoning in this study to the determination of colchicine in blood. In case 1, a 19-year-old man suffered from depression and ingested 160 colchicine tablets (each 0.5 mg). The concentration of colchicine in his blood samples showed a fluctuating trend and kept above the therapeutic steady-state concentration for 5 days. In case 2, a 70-year-old female patient with a history of gout and chronic colchicine intake ingested five times the usual dose of colchicine (5 mg) and died after 12 days of medical care, with 5 ng/mL of colchicine in her blood sample. Our findings suggest that the delayed elimination and accumulation in humans after colchicine overdose could keep the concentration of colchicine maintaining above the therapeutic steady-state concentration for many days before dying, probably along with a fluctuating trend.     

Research on detection techniques for pattern modifications of playing cards used in illegal gambling operations

We investigated pattern-modified marked cards used in fraudulent gambling cases in Korea. These cards are printed with modifications to some of the repeated marks on the back, revealing the hand on the front and enabling fraudsters to deceive their victims. We proposed a method for identifying the modified part by first enhancing the card's color difference using an image processing technique and then calculating the similarity between the repeated basic patterns with a Siamese network. This method is fast and convenient, as it can determine the deformation with only 1 or 2 cards and can be implemented in mobile applications, allowing law enforcement officers to investigate quickly. The proposed method serves as a useful tool to aid document examiners in making judgments, as it does not require expensive equipment and effectively visualizes the alterations.     

An exercise in scientific problem-solving: Illustrating the utility of the principles of the Sydney Declaration

In forensic science, scientific problem-solving is characterized by the recognition of traces as part of iterative reasoning processes to assign meaning to those traces in order to interpret and reconstruct events. Through a set of fundamental principles, the Sydney Declaration presents a foundation of forensic science through the lens of a scientist. The distinction between a scientist and a technician may require clarification—where a prototypical technician follows a prescribed set of ‘standard operating procedures’ and may be limited in the interpretation of the resultant data, the scientist utilizes knowledge, skills, experience and imagination to identify the issue at hand and develop lines of inquiry for testing and interpretation. This case report draws on the Sydney Declaration in order to highlight the importance of learning about events from careful consideration of both obvious and less obvious traces. A case involving the assault of a police officer is examined to illustrate the use of the Principles: the problem originally defined by investigators at the scene and later by prosecutors resulted in incorrect analysis and interpretation of traces, hampering efforts at an accurate reconstruction of events. This exercise serves to demonstrate that in order to engage in scientific problem-solving, it is necessary to apply observation and reasoning in forensic investigations in order to yield an outcome that can be clearly articulated. The overarching goal is to support the drive to improve forensic science practice, education, and research through a case illustrating the value of the principles of the Sydney Declaration.     

Field-portable detection of fentanyl and its analogs: A review

The need to detect fentanyl and its analogs in the field is an important capability to help prevent unintentional exposure or overdose on these substances, which may result in death. Many portable methods historically used in the field by first responders and other field users to detect and identify other chemical substances, such as hazardous materials, have been applied to the detection and identification of these synthetic opioids. This paper describes field portable spectroscopic methods used for the detection and identification of fentanyl and its analogs. The methods described are automated colorimetric tests including lateral flow assays; vibrational spectroscopy (mid-infrared and Raman); gas chromatography–mass spectrometry; ion mobility spectrometry, and high-pressure mass spectrometry. In each case the background and key details of these technologies are outlined, followed by a discussion of the application of the technology in the field. Attention is paid to the analysis of complex mixtures and limits of detection, including the required spectral databases and algorithms used to interrogate these types of samples. There is also an emphasis on providing actionable information to the (likely) non-scientist operators of these instruments in the field.     

Model verification for population detection of counterfeits

The quality of counterfeit items has increased dramatically, with modern global manufacturing being able to duplicate the materials, construction, and visual features of items. Detection of fraudulent coinage can parallel authentication of food, beverages, and manufactured goods by studying product-inherent features. Counterfeit detection is performed by comparing an Example group with a Questioned group. A model is developed for both groups using standard tests on individual pieces. Coin weight is used here as an illustration. The model should also follow the natural science of the system. In this case, the manufacturing process variation is known and steady, and the underlying distribution is known or can be determined from authentic pieces. The proposed detection method uses testing of many individual pieces, then using reverse-quality-engineering methods to identify possible sources. This strategy looks at the variation between individual pieces to determine the process capability of a machine, assembly line, or plant to create product consistency for a manufacturer. Fraudulent items may be manufactured within specification, but demonstrate a manufacturing process capability different than that of the authentic manufacturer. In this report, we examine the model previously reported and use reconstruction techniques to re-create the evidence set to validate the model, increase model accuracy, and confirm the conclusion previously reached, showing that the Questioned set is likely over 37% non-conforming by weight. In this case, the decision outcome of the analysis was improved by using additional methods not included in the modeling software package originally used.     

Intentional overdose of glargine insulin: Determination of the parent compound in postmortem blood by LC-HRMS

Insulin glargine is a long-acting insulin analog that is converted after enzymatic cleavage of the arginine pair of the β-chain into its main metabolite M1 (21^A-Gly-insulin), which is responsible for the hypoglycemic activity. In all the overdose cases described in the literature, only M1 concentrations have been reported, whereas insulin glargine was always absent or below the limit of quantitation. In this study, we present a case of suicide of a young nurse by injection of insulin glargine in which the parent molecule was found at a toxic concentration in blood. The determination and the discrimination of insulin glargine from human insulin and other synthetic analogs in the blood specimen were performed by liquid chromatography coupled to high-resolution mass spectrometry (Waters XEVO G2-XS QToF) and extraction after precipitation in the presence of bovine insulin (internal standard), with a mixture of acetonitrile/methanol +1% formic acid followed by purification on solid phase extraction cartridges C18. Glargine insulin tested highly positive in the blood with a concentration of 1.06 mg/L. Due to the difficulty in obtaining a M1 pure standard, the metabolite could not be dosed. This unique presence of the parent molecule, reported for the first time, can be explained by inter-individual variability in the rate of conversion to metabolite. Intravenous injection versus subcutaneous injection can also explain the presence of insulin glargine. Finally, the dose injected may have been so high that saturation of the proteolytic enzymes responsible for conversion to M1 should have occurred.