The evaluation of evidence in the forensic investigation of fire incidents (Part I): an approach using Bayesian networks

The forensic investigation of the origin and cause of a fire incident is a particularly demanding area of expertise. As the available evidence is often incomplete or vague, uncertainty is a key element. The present study is an attempt to approach this through the use of Bayesian networks, which have been found useful in assisting human reasoning in a variety of disciplines in which uncertainty plays a central role. The present paper describes the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) and its use for drawing inferences about propositions of interest, based upon a single, possibly non replicable item of evidence: detected residual quantities of a flammable liquid in fire debris.     

Battered women's perceptions of risk versus risk factors and instruments in predicting repeat reassault

This study partially replicates and expands on a previous study that showed women's perceptions of risk to be a strong predictor of reassault among batterers. The current study employed a larger and multisite sample, a longer follow-up period of 15 months, and multiple outcomes including "repeated reassault" (n = 499). According to the multinomial logistic regressions, women's perceptions of risk improved prediction with risk factors (ROC area under the curve improved by.04 and sensitivity of repeated reassault increased 12 percentage points). In comparison to simulated risk instruments, women's perceptions by themselves were better predictors than the K-SID, similar in predictive ability to the SARA, and almost as strong as the DAS. The best prediction of repeated reassault was obtained using risk markers, including women's perceptions (ROC AUC =.83; 70% sensitivity) or by using the DAS and women's perceptions together (ROC AUC =.73; 64% sensitivity).     

IT Facilitating Fraud

This paper has three complementary aims: to highlight the risks of IT fraud in the workplace and the implication for controls and future investigation; to show how emerging technologies such as the Internet and electronic commerce (e-commerce) have affected fraud risk; and to indicate some additional fraud risks which arise from the Euro-conversion and Y2K ('the millennium bug') compliance projects, both of which require heavy IT support. Information Technology (IT) fraud can be defined as: Where a financial loss or malicious damage has been sustained by an organisation, which has been facilitated by the use of computers in some way.