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801.
Robert Brame Edward P. Mulvey Carol A. Schubert Alex R. Piquero 《Journal of Quantitative Criminology》2018,34(1):167-187
Objectives
A broad research literature in criminology documents key aspects of how criminal offending develops and changes over the life span. We contribute to this literature by showcasing methods that are useful for studying medium-term patterns of subsequent criminal justice system involvement among a sample of serious adolescent offenders making the transition to early adulthood.Methods
Our approach relies on 7 years of post-enrollment follow-up from the Pathways to Desistance Study. Each person in the study was adjudicated delinquent for or convicted of one or more relatively serious offenses during adolescence. Their local jurisdiction juvenile court petition records and their adult FBI arrest records were systematically searched.Results
We estimate in-sample 7 year recidivism rates in the 75–80 % range. Our analysis also provides recidivism rate estimates among different demographic groups within the sample. Extrapolated long-term recidivism rates are estimated to be on the order of 79–89 %.Conclusions
The Pathways data suggest that recidivism rates of serious adolescent offenders are high and quite comparable to the rates estimated on other samples of serious offenders in the extant literature. Our analysis also reveals a pattern of heightened recidivism risk during the earliest months and years of the follow-up period followed by a steep decline.802.
Jillian J. Turanovic Travis C. Pratt Alex R. Piquero 《Journal of Quantitative Criminology》2018,34(1):251-274
Objectives
Research indicates that victims who make changes to their risky behavioral routines are better able to avoid being victimized again in the future. Nevertheless, some victims’ abilities to change their behaviors may be limited by what Hindelang et al. in Victims of personal crime: an empirical foundation for a theory of personal victimization. Ballinger, Cambridge (1978) referred to as “structural constraints.” To assess this issue, we determine: (1) whether victims who reside in communities characterized by structural constraints (e.g., concentrated disadvantage) are more likely to continue engaging in risky behaviors (e.g., offending, illicit drug use, and getting drunk) after being victimized; and (2) whether victims who continue to engage in risky lifestyles have an increased likelihood of repeat victimization.Methods
Ten waves of data (spanning nearly 7 years) from the Pathways to Desistance Study are used, and multilevel models are estimated to examine changes to risky lifestyles and repeat victimization among a subsample of victims.Results
Findings indicate that community-level structural constraints impose limits on the changes that victims make to their risky lifestyles, and that these changes influence repeat victimization.Conclusions
We conclude that, in the context of repeat victimization, structural constraints are both real and consequential, and that future theory and research should continue to explore how context shapes and influences victims’ behavioral routines.803.
Jessica M. Craig Alex R. Piquero Joseph Murray David P. Farrington 《Journal of Experimental Criminology》2018,14(4):485-506
Objectives
While many criminological theories posit causal hypotheses, many studies fail to use methods that adequately address the three criteria of causality. This is particularly important when assessing the impact of criminal justice involvement on later outcomes. Due to practical and ethical concerns, it is challenging to randomize criminal sanctions, so quasi-experimental methods such as propensity score matching are often used to approximate a randomized design. Based on longitudinal data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, the current study used propensity score matching to investigate the extent to which convictions and/or incarcerations in the first two decades of life were related to adverse mental health during middle adulthood.Methods
Propensity scores were utilized to match those with and without criminal justice involvement on a wide range of risk factors for offending.Results
The results indicated that there were no significant differences in mental health between those involved in the criminal justice system and those without such involvement.Conclusions
The results did not detect a relationship between justice system involvement and later mental health suggesting that the consequences of criminal justice involvement may only be limited to certain domains.804.
The Curious Attraction of Wagner's Law 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Wagner's ‘law of increasing state activity’ has recently been subjected to intensive use of recondite econometric testing procedures. An examination of the relevant articles reveals ignorance both of Wagner's definition of ‘state activity’ and of his insistence that he was not engaged in prediction. Consequently, the omission of public enterprises contained in Wagner's definition leads to a model misspecification and the object of testing his hypothesiss remains obscure. 相似文献
805.
In the past three decades, “policy entrepreneurship” has emerged as a key analytical concept helping to explain institutional and policy change. Despite this, however, the literature on policy entrepreneurship remains theoretically vexed, producing limited theoretical knowledge or explanatory models able to draw firm conclusions. Theory building on policy and institutional change, for example, how policy entrepreneurs institute and navigate change agendas, using what tools, strategies, resources, and capacities remains opaque. This is especially the case in developing country contexts, where most analytical investigation of policy entrepreneurship has addressed “first world” case examples. This special issue seeks to address this analytical gap in the literature, focusing on cases specific to developing country contexts, deepening our empirical knowledge of policy entrepreneurship in developing countries, but also exploring theoretical and conceptual debates as they relate to developing countries. 相似文献
806.
Alex Warleigh 《Cambridge Review of International Affairs》2004,17(2):301-318
This article argues in favour of an intra‐disciplinary rapprochement between ‘EU studies’ and those working in the ‘new regionalism’ (NR). I take the issue of democratisation as an example of how scholars of both the EU and NR could usefully learn from each other. European Union studies has recently undergone a ‘normative turn’, through which inter/intra‐disciplinarity has received a fillip; I argue that at both conceptual and empirical levels, new regionalist studies would benefit from a similar mainstreaming of democracy issues and a similarly open approach to inter/intra‐disciplinarity. Moreover, EU studies scholars would benefit both conceptually (an escape from the ‘N=1’ problem that has plagued integration theory, the adoption of a clear critical theory perspective) and empirically (further cases in which to test hypotheses and generate data) from such a rapprochement.1 相似文献
807.
Kate?J.?BowersEmail author Shane?D.?Johnson Alex?F.?G.?Hirschfield 《European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research》2004,10(4):285-308
A new situational crime prevention measure recently introduced into Great Britain involves the fitting of gates to alleyways running along the back of terraced properties to restrict access to local residents and reduce opportunities for offenders. A number of quantitative techniques were used to assess the success of the intervention in reducing burglary in the City of Liverpool. The results demonstrate that, relative to a suitable comparison area, burglary was reduced by approximately 37%, there was a diffusion of benefit to properties in the surrounding areas, and the scheme was cost beneficial with a saving of £1.86 for every pound spent. The analyses provide persuasive evidence that these reductions were attributable to the intervention. We argue that the methodological techniques demonstrated here can be applied more widely to crime prevention evaluations. 相似文献
808.
809.
Comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography with time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC x GC-TOFMS) for drug screening and confirmation 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC x GC) is applied to analysis of drug standard mixtures containing 78 drugs of interest in forensic samples. For this study, underivatised drugs were employed. While several of the drugs were not detected at the low concentrations employed in the samples, most could be satisfactorily assigned their first and second dimension retentions in the GC x GC retention plane. For this study, time-of-flight mass spectrometry (TOFMS) detection was used. The enhanced separation possible in GC x GC is demonstrated, and typical linearity and apparatus precision are shown for tramadol, diazepam, olanzapine and desipramine using selected qualifier ions. Mass spectral library search quality for the detection of drugs in a selection of authentic forensic cases, along with retention position in the 2D retention plane, is used to support positive identification of the presence of the drugs. The analysis of 'difficult' drugs paracetamol and phenytoin is shown to produce anomalous chromatographic peak shape in the 2D plane, whereas most drugs gave acceptable peak shapes. The GC x GC technique was applied to screening drugs in forensic samples, with either flame ionisation (FID) or TOFMS detection, and compared favourably with conventional single column GC-MS analysis when tested for diazepam in an authentic forensic study. 相似文献
810.
Greg?PogarskyEmail author Alex?R.?Piquero Ray?Paternoster 《Journal of Quantitative Criminology》2004,20(4):343-369
Deterrence theory describes a process of offender decision making that consists of two linkages—one in which official sanctions and other information affect a would-be offenders perceptions about the risks of criminal conduct, and another in which such perceptions influence the decision whether or not to offend. Decades worth of empirical research has concentrated virtually exclusively on this latter linkage, and in so doing, has produced an incomplete account of the deterrence process. This article develops a model of how perceptions of sanction certainty are modified in response to an individuals involvement in criminal activity and the consequences (if any) therefrom. Implications of the model are tested with data from a multi-wave, panel survey of 1,530 high school students from the southeastern U.S. Key findings include: the manner in which new information affects perceived certainty depends on the level of perceived certainty before the new information is received, and the extent of peer offending was one of the most influential factors in determining change in perceived sanction certainty over time. 相似文献