Offending and Early Death in the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development

Criminal offending has many negative outcomes. Researchers have recently begun to consider the impact offending has on offenders' health, with a few studies focusing on differential mortality risk. Yet, prior research has been limited due to selective samples, restricted range of follow-up time period, limited set of explanatory variables, and lack of theoretical guidance. This paper examines the risk of early death among 411 South London males in the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development followed into their late 50s. Attention is paid not only to differential risk of death between nonoffenders and offenders, but also to the risk within the population of offenders and through consideration of theoretical frameworks and associated predictor variables. Results show that high-rate chronic offenders evince the highest risk of death, an effect that continues even after controlling for childhood individual and environmental risk factors as well as participation in a range of analogous behaviors.     

Juvenile Arrest and Later Economic Attainment: Strength and Mechanisms of the Relationship

Journal of Quantitative Criminology - We tested the impact of juvenile arrest on asset accumulation, debt accumulation, and net worth from ages 20–30. We also examined whether indicators of...     

Using PMCT of Individuals of Known Age to Test the Suchey–Brooks Method of Aging in Victoria,Australia

The estimation of an individual's age at death plays a critical role in the investigation of unidentified human remains. The Suchey–Brooks method, which involves the analysis of degenerative morphological changes in the pubic symphysis, is currently widely used to estimate age in adults. This study tested the applicability of the Suchey–Brooks method on a contemporary adult Australian (Victorian) subpopulation by observing three‐dimensional volume‐rendered postmortem computed tomographic (PMCT) reconstructions of the pubic symphysis of 204 individuals aged 15–100 years. Results showed the method was reliable for females (85% correct allocations) but not for males (67% correct allocations). It is therefore recommended that extreme caution be used when applying the Suchey–Brooks method for estimating age at death of an individual in this subpopulation from PMCT images. The results suggest further investigation into alternate age estimation methods is required.     

Fatal intoxication involving 2-methyl AP-237

Novel synthetic opioids contribute considerably to the opioid epidemic, especially with the frequent emergence of structurally similar compounds. This case report describes a fatal intoxication involving 2-methyl AP-237. A 54-year-old Caucasian male was found deceased from an apparent drug overdose. A plastic container labeled “2MAP” and a cut straw were found in the decedent's backpack at the scene. A white substance found in the container tested positive for fentanyl by field testing. According to his medical history, the decedent was treated for a drug overdose 3 years prior to his death. With no diagnostic findings at autopsy, the case was submitted for toxicological analysis. An unknown substance was detected in peripheral blood and urine using gas chromatography with nitrogen phosphorous detection (GC-NPD). Further testing was conducted using gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) and liquid chromatography-quadrupole-time-of-flight mass spectrometry (LC-QTOF-MS) which confirmed the presence of 2-methyl AP-237 and potential metabolites in blood and urine. Quantitation by GC-NPD revealed concentrations of 2-methyl AP-237 in blood and urine at 480 ng/mL and 4200 ng/mL, respectively. The toxicological analysis also identified and quantitated alprazolam in the blood at 55 ng/mL. Additionally, the metabolism of 2-methyl AP-237 was investigated and three hydroxylated metabolites were identified in peripheral blood and urine. Limited literature is available for the detection and quantitation of 2-methyl AP-237 in postmortem specimens. Given the toxicological findings with unremarkable autopsy findings, this case is an example of a fatal intoxication involving 2-methyl AP-237.     

Democracy,children, and the environment: a case for commons trusts

This essay argues that our unsustainable degradation of the natural environment violates fundamental, democratic obligations to children. I argue, first, that obligations to children are clearer and more determinate than obligations to future generations. I then argue that our democratic obligations to children alone, which can be derived from a theoretically modest, procedural conception of democracy, demand substantial institutional reforms. Finally, I propose that commons trusts – which have received very little attention in the theoretical literature – are the best way of meeting these obligations.     

Verbal Ability and Persistent Offending: A Race-specific Test of Moffitt’s Theory

Theoretical questions linger over the applicability of the verbal ability model to African-Americans and the social control theory hypothesis that educational failure mediates the effect of verbal ability on offending patterns. Accordingly, this paper investigates whether verbal ability distinguishes between offending groups within the context of Moffitt’s developmental taxonomy. Questions are addressed with longitudinal data spanning childhood through young-adulthood from an ongoing national panel, and multinomial and hierarchical Poisson models (overdispersed). In multinomial models, low verbal ability predicts membership in a life-course-persistent-oriented group relative to an adolescent-limited-oriented group. Hierarchical models indicate that verbal ability is associated with arrest outcomes among White and African-American subjects, with effects consistently operating through educational attainment (high school dropout). The results support Moffitt’s hypothesis that verbal deficits distinguish adolescent-limited- and life-course-persistent-oriented groups within race, as well as the social control model of verbal ability.     

Crime Theory Evaluation Using Simulation Models of Residential Burglary

This paper provides new insights on the study of crime modeling through the development of a hybrid cellular automaton (CA) and Multi-agent System (MAS) simulation model that is able to combine components of multiple criminological theories to forecast the locations of residential burglary targets: journey to crime (JTC), social disorganization (SD) theory, and routine activity (RA) theory. In order to combine individual factors from each theory into a unified model, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed for hierarchical parameter selection. The model is then evaluated using data on offenders obtained from the Dallas Police Department to examine how different crime theories perform in the prediction of residential burglary. Compared to the SD- and RA-weighted models, the JTC-weighted model performed the best when comparisons were made to actual burglary locations. The findings demonstrate that the simulation models of crime provide test beds for research into the explanatory power of various crime theories.     

Does Minority Representation in Police Agencies Reduce Assaults on the Police?

Following recent high-profile deaths of unarmed African American suspects at the hands of police, a number of reforms have been proposed, among them improved minority representation in the ranks of law enforcement organizations. Previous research has explored the effects of minority representation on complaints against the police and other behaviors, but very few studies have examined violence toward the police. We merged several data sources together and tested the hypothesis that minority representation within police departments is inversely associated with assaults against the police. In an extension of prior research, we also conducted separate analyses for African American, Hispanic, and Asian officer representation. The results did not support the expectation that diversity within police organizations results in improved police-citizen interactions, as measured by assaults on police. This study is one of the few to examine how different measures of minority representation in police agencies relates to assaults on the police.     

Inflation and the Making of Australian Macroeconomic Policy, 1945–85

Inflation and the Making of Australian Macroeconomic Policy, 1945–85. By Michael Beggs (Basingstoke: Macmillan Palgrave, 2015), pp.xii + 325, £75.00 (hb).