Reviews

John L. H. Keep, The Russian Revolution: A Study in Mass Mobilisation. London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1977. 614 pp. £12.50.

Archie Brown and Jack Gray (eds.), Political Culture and Political Change in Communist States. London: Macmillan, 1977. xiii+286 pp. £10.00.

Mary McAuley, Politics and the Soviet Union. Harmondsworth: Penguin Books, 1977. 352 pp. £1.50.

G. P. van den Berg, De regering van Rusland en de Sovjet‐Unie. Leiden: 1977. 258 pp. English summary.

Richard Lowenthal, Model Or Ally: Communist Powers and the Developing Countries, London: OUP, 1977. x+400 pp. £12.95.

Martin McCauley, Khrushchev and the Development of Soviet Agriculture. The Virgin Land Programme 1953–1964. London: Macmillan, 1976. 232 pp. £10.00.

Robert W. Campbell, Trends in the Soviet Oil and Gas Industry. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press for Resources for the Future, 1976. xiv+125 pp.

Joseph S. Berliner, The Innovation Decision in Soviet Industry. Cambridge, Mass, and London: The MIT Press, 1976. ix+561 pp. £23.80.

James Riordan, Sport in Soviet Society. London: CUP, 1977. xi+435 pp. £10.00.

Robert Auty and Dimitry Obolensky (eds.), Companion to Russian Studies. Volume 2. An Introduction to Russian Language and Literature. London: CUP, 1977. 300 pp. £11.50.

Frederick C. Barghoorn, Detente and the Democratic Movement in the USSR. New York and London: The Free Press/Collier Macmillan Publishers, 1976. x+230 pp. $12.95.

Rudolf L. Tokés (ed.), Dissent in the USSR. Politics, Ideology, and People. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975. xvi+464 pp. £7.75.

Alexander Yanov, Detente after Brezhnev: The Domestic Roots of Soviet Foreign Policy. Translated by Robert Kessler. (Policy Papers in International Affairs, No. 2.) Berkeley: Institute of International Studies, University of California, 1977. x+90 pp. $3.00.

Nirmala Joshi, Foundations of Indo‐ Soviet Relations: A Study of Non‐Official Attitudes and Contacts, 1917–1947. New Delhi: Radiant Publishers, 1975. 204 pp. Rs. 30.

J. P. Jain, Soviet Policy Towards Pakistan and Bangladesh. New Delhi: Radiant Publishers, 1974. 258 pp. Rs. 50. $11.50.

Paul E. Lydolph, Geography of the U.S.S.R. Third edition. New York: Wiley, 1977. xi+495 pp.     

Two items of evidence, no putative source: an inference problem in forensic intelligence

Intelligence analysts commonly associate cases on the basis of similarities found in compared characteristics of scientific evidence. The present paper studies some of the inferential difficulties associated with such operations. An analysis is proposed that breaks down the reasoning process into inference to common source, and inference to case linkage. The former requires an approach to the difficulty associated with evaluating the similarities of items of evidence from different cases with no putative source being available. The latter requires consideration to be given to the relevance of evidence. Throughout the paper, probability theory is used to describe the nature of the proposed inferences. Graphical models are also introduced with the aim of providing further insight into the dependence and independence relationships assumed to hold among the various propositions considered. Notions from decision theory are used to discuss ways in which intelligence analysts may assist investigators in deciding whether or not cases should be considered as linked.     

Regional psychiatric boards in Israel: expectations and realities

As laid down by Israeli legislation, the Regional Psychiatric Board constitutes one of the chief instruments in the monitoring of compulsory hospitalization, of compulsory outpatient treatment and of the quality of all inpatient care of the mentally ill. This article presents the findings of a study into the working of these boards. Taking a sample of every second application (N=168) over a 6-month period to one of Israel's six existing Regional Psychiatric Boards, an examination was made of the decisions issued by the board and of other aspects of its functioning. Explanations for the findings of this analysis are suggested, and generalizing from these findings, recommendations are offered for the improvement of the future functioning of all six Boards.     

Extending the Study of Continuity and Change: Gender Differences in the Linkage Between Adolescent and Adult Offending

Recently, Paternoster etal. used data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, a longitudinal study of 411 South London boys mostly born in 1953, to investigate the linkage between adolescent and adult offending and found that variations in adult offending were consistent with a random process after conditioning on adolescent offending. In this paper, we test the robustness of this early study across data sources and genders. Here, we use data from the Dunedin New Zealand 1972 birth cohort study to replicate previous findings regarding stability and change in criminal offending between the adolescent and adult years. In particular, our interest centers on the stochastic properties of the adolescent and adult conviction distribution in the cohort and whether the structure of this distribution is similar for males and females. This replication and extension of prior work is especially important since criminologists have little understanding of the pattern of female adolescent offending or how the patterns are linked to adult offending for women. The analysis reveals that variation in adult offending after conditioning on adolescent offending is consistent with a random (Poisson) process. Furthermore, this pattern is evident for both the males and the females in the Dunedin New Zealand 1972 birth cohort.     

Predicting the effect of substance abuse treatment on probationer recidivism

Support for the effectiveness of substance abuse treatment to reduce substance use and recidivism among populations supervised by the criminal justice system continues to grow in substance abuse and criminal justice literature. Recent studies show that a variety of programs including the Breaking the Cycle program and drug courts appear to result in improved outcomes for offenders. In this paper, we examine the effect of non-residential substance abuse treatment on arrest. Our data are for almost 134,000 ‘drug-involved’ individuals sentenced to probation in Florida between July 1995 and June 2000. Nearly 52,000 of these individuals received non-residential substance abuse treatment, while 81,797 did not. Our approach is a methodologically simple one that entails stratifying our data by treatment status, estimating logit and negative binomial models of arrest for each of the two datasets, and then applying each model to both datasets. This approach, which requires that both groups include subjects for whom treatment is appropriate, is analogous to using regression models to predict outcomes for new values of independent variables. For each observation in the dataset, we use the models to predict the expected outcomes for each individual under two scenarios – receiving non-residential treatment and receiving no treatment. Summing over these individual estimates provides an estimate of the total numbers of arrests that would be expected under different levels of population exposure to treatment. Results suggest that non-residential treatment reduced both the expected numbers of individuals who recidivated (i.e., were arrested) and the expected total numbers of arrests in the 12 and 24 months following placement on supervision.**RTI is an independent organization dedicated to conducting innovative, multidisciplinary research that improves the human condition.     

Testing for the Equality of Maximum-Likelihood Regression Coefficients Between Two Independent Equations

Consider the case where one obtains maximum-likelihood estimates of regression coefficients for the respective populations from which each of two large independent samples is drawn. A question sometimes asked about the results of such an analysis is whether there is a difference between a coefficient in one population, _a, and the same coefficient in another population, _b. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of two test statistics that have been used to address this problem. Our results suggest that one statistic produces valid conclusions, while the other fails.