Parkinson's Law and the United States Bureau of Prisons

Conclusion From the foregoing discussion and the data presented, I think that is is safe to conclude that Parkinson's Law does hold, at least insofar as the United States Bureau of Prisons is concerned. Not only has the number of BOP employees increased in accordance with the Law, but it has actually exceeded the rate of increase which Parkinson predicted. Moreover, as we have seen, the increase in the number of BOP employees seems to be in no way related to the quantity or quality of the work to be done. Whether or not the BOP is indeed the “ultimate bureaucracy”, as I believe to be the case, has not been proven. Such proof would require comparisons between the BOP and all other existing bureaus of the U.S. Government—a task far beyond the scope of this paper. It is certain, however, that the BOP is enough of a Parkinsonian bureaucracy to startle any but the most hopelessly biased reader. That much alone is significant.     

Expenditures and votes: In search of downward-sloping curves in the United States and Great Britain

An earlier paper showed a negative relation between increases and accelerations in F, the ratio of federal expenditures to GNP and E, the reelection or defeat of the incumbent party in the White House over the last 100 years. This paper argues that there also exists a negative relation between V, the percentage of the popular vote cast for the incumbents, and F. This function is displaced by wars and depressions and can drift over time, making it difficult to discover negative curves in the data. Dividing British and US data for the last 50 years into party periods yields clearly discernable negative functions for F and V for the incumbents.     

Political Journals in Germany

Germany in the 18th and 19th centuries possessed a wealth of monthly political journals. The period after the Second World War saw a renaissance of monthly journals, which offered orientation to a populace disoriented by National Socialism and war. Today there is a limited number of monthly political journals and their total circulation does not exceed 100,000. But their readership constitutes the small group of citizens who take an interest in politics and in political discourse. Their quantitative influence cannot be measured, their qualitative influence cannot be overestimated. The article focuses mainly on the magazines Neue Gesellschaft/Frankfurter Hefte and Die Politische Meinung. The former is supported by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, the latter by the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung.     

Hostage-Taking in the Context of Domestic Violence: Some Case Examples

Initial reports of domestic violence are generally made to law enforcement officers who must respond and intervene. A subset of these episodes involves cases in which the victim, and, in many instances her child(ren), have been taken hostage by her husband or partner. Moreover, there are indications that the number of such incidents is growing. The purpose of this project was twofold: (1) to provide one of the first reports on the prevalence and characteristics of these events, and (2) to more closely analyze domestic crisis (hostage) situations using actual case examples. All information was obtained from the Hostage Barricade Database System (HOBAS) of the FBIs Crisis Negotiation Unit. HOBAS is a postincident information collection tool which stores historical data from law enforcement agencies across the nation on hostage/barricade incidents. An examination of this database yielded different types of domestic hostage-taking acts and outcomes (e.g., tactical vs. negotiated resolutions, survival vs. death/injury of perpetrator and/or victim[s]). Implications of the findings, for future crisis negotiation efforts directed toward nonviolent resolution of these high-risk critical incidents, are discussed.     

Negotiated Third Party Access—An Industrial Organisation Perspective

In the course of the liberalization of European energy markets, the German government opted—diverging from all other European countries—for Negotiated Third-Party Access. In this article we analyze if, theoretically, this institutional regime can be superior to regulation. We review empirically whether certain aspects of the actual implementation, in particular publication of the network access charges for each network supplier, facilitated or inhibited competition. In the first place we reconsider previous research, showing that NTPA can—under certain conditions—be economically effective. Our empirical analysis shows that the duty of publishing access charges supported market transparency and imposed a regulatory threat, particularly to suppliers with significantly above-average charges. On the other hand observable price adjustments over time serve as an indicator of tacit collusion. Although the expensive suppliers cut their prices, the cheaper ones raised theirs.We thank Maik Heinemann, Joachim Wagner and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and the Lower Saxonian Ministry of Science and Culture for financial support.JEL Classification: D42, L43, L94     

The effectiveness of treatment for sexual offenders: A comprehensive meta-analysis

The article reports a meta-analysis on controlled outcome evaluations of sexual offender treatment. From 2,039 documents published in five languages, 69 studies containing 80 independent comparisons between treated and untreated offenders fulfilled stepwise eligibility criteria (total N = 22,181). Despite a wide range of positive and negative effect sizes, the majority confirmed the benefits of treatment. Treated offenders showed 6 percentage points or 37% less sexual recidivism than controls. Effects for violent and general recidivism were in a similar range. Organic treatments (surgical castration and hormonal medication) showed larger effects than psychosocial interventions. However, this difference was partially confounded with methodological and offender variables. Among psychological programs, cognitive–behavioral approaches revealed the most robust effect. Nonbehavioral treatments did not demonstrate a significant impact. There was no outcome difference between randomized and other designs, however, group equivalence was associated with slightly larger effects. Various other moderators had a stronger impact on effect size (e.g., small sample size, quality of outcome reporting, program completion vs. dropout, age homogeneity, outpatient treatment, and authors’ affiliation with the program). More differentiated, high-quality evaluations are needed to clarify: What works for whom under which circumstances?     

Graduation and Deepening: An Ambitious Post-2012 Climate Policy Scenario

In the second commitment period 2013–2017, the Kyoto Protocol structure is strengthened considerably. The current Annex B countries agree to reduction targets averaging 23% reductions from 1990 level. This induces non-Annex B countries to take up emissions targets according to a multi-tiered graduation system. Graduation is undertaken according to thresholds defined by per capita GDP and emissions. Compared to the current Annex B, coverage of emissions by absolute caps would increase by about 25%; large low-income countries such as India and China do not graduate. Therefore, large emitters above 50 million t. p.a. can utilise a policy-based Clean Development Mechanism. Sinks of all types – terrestrial, marine and geological can be used. To achieve this policy scenario, voter pressure due to extreme meteorological events and a coordination of all progressive forces in the international climate negotiations are necessary. Moreover, a judicious combination of carrots and sticks has to be developed to entice Non-Annex B countries to graduate.     

Alcohol abuse prevention among high-risk youth: computer-based intervention

SUMMARYThis study examined the feasibility of a CD-ROM intervention to prevent alcohol abuse among high-risk youths. Youths from 41 community-based agencies in greater New York City participated in a randomized trial of a skills-based interactive CD-ROM. Outcome data were collected on 489 early adolescents in these agencies before and after a randomized subset of youths interacted with a 10-session alcohol abuse prevention program on CD-ROM. Compared to control participants, youths in the intervention arm had a positive increase in perceived harm of alcohol use and increased assertiveness skills. At posttest, drinking rates for control and intervention participants were equal and unchanged from pretest. These findings suggest that CD-ROM technology offers a new and promising medium for engaging high-risk youth in an alcohol abuse prevention program. Study implications and future applications of the present approach are discussed.