Conflict and Identity: Explaining Turnout and Anti-integrationist Voting in the Danish 2004 Elections for the European Parliament

This article investigates electoral participation and the antecedents of anti-integrationist voting (AIV) in the Danish 2004 European parliamentary elections. First, it focuses on the effects of the campaign and assesses the importance of social demographics and political predispositions vis-à-vis mediated and interpersonal communication on turnout. Second, it investigates AIV, focusing on 'hard' utilitarian predictors and 'soft' cultural predictors. It draws on the European Election Study (EES) post-electoral voter survey and a media content analysis of the most important news media outlets. Its findings corroborate previous research on political participation and shows significant positive effects of interpersonal political discussion and exposure to news media that portrayed the European elections as a conflict-laden contest on turnout. The analysis of AIV highlights the importance of proxies (lack of trust and dissatisfaction with the incumbent government) and political ideology, but also feelings of identity. The latter provides evidence from the Danish context in support of an emerging body of literature emphasizing 'soft' explanations of euroscepticism.     

Candidate uncertainty, mental models, and complexity: Some experimental results

Since the work of Downs (1957), spatial models of elections have been a mainstay of research in political science and public choice. Despite the plethora of theoretical and empirical research involving spatial models, researchers have not considered in great detail the complexity of the decision task that a candidate confronts. Two facets of a candidate’s decision process are investigated here, using a set of laboratory experiments where subjects face a fixed incumbent in a two-dimensional policy space. First, we analyze the effect that the complexity of the electoral landscape has on the ability of the subject to defeat the incumbent. Second, we analyze the impact that a subject’s “mental model” (which we infer from a pre-experiment questionnaire) has on her performance. The experimental results suggest that the complexity of a candidate’s decision task and her perception of the task may be important factors in electoral competition.     

Political institutions and economic growth reconsidered

The debate on the relationship between institutions and economic development is discussed, focusing on two illustrations, i.e., the impact of democracy and political instability on economic growth. Various pitfalls of existing research are identified, like sensitivity of the outcomes to model specification, sample heterogeneity, measurement of political variables, and the treatment of the time dimension.     

Drugs, Violence, and Development in Colombia: A Department-Level Analysis

Observers say that drug production fuels violence in Colombia, but does coca production explain different levels of violence? This article examines the relationship between coca production and guerrilla violence by reviewing national‐level data over time and studying Colombia by department, exploring the interactions among guerrilla violence, exports, development, and displacement. It uses historical analysis, cartographic visualization, and analysis of the trends in four high coca‐producing and four violent Colombian departments, along with a department‐level fixed effects model. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the department‐level analysis suggests that coca production is not the driving force of contemporary Colombian guerrilla violence. Instead, economic factors and coca eradication emerge as prominent explanatory factors.     

Further evidence on the relationship between economic freedom and economic growth

Much of the literature on the power of elected officials and bureaucratic agencies argues, from an empirical perspective, that bureaus appears to exercise autonomy. In this paper, a theoretical model sets out the conditions under which the Congress, the President, and one agency (we use the U.S. Federal Reserve as an extended example) can dictate policy outcomes. The results of the paper include the “Congressional Dominance” theorem: If more than 2/3 of House members, and more than 2/3 of Senate members, agree on something, they get it. The theorem is obvious (the “proof” is in the U.S. Constitution), but often forgotten in the substantive literature. More realistic results are derived for situations where the preferences of members of Congress are more diverse. Powers of the President to influence policy with, and without, appointments are also analyzed.     

Review

Nuclear Power in the Developing World by Daniel Poneman George Allen and Unwin, London, 1982. 254 pp. including tables, figures, notes, bibliography and index. £14,95.

Employment Policy in Developing Countries: A Survey of Issues and Evidence by Lyn Squire Oxford University Press, New York, 1981. xiii plus 229 pp. including tables, figures, references and index. R.16,95 paperback.

Migration Decision‐Making: Multidisciplinary Approaches to Micro‐Level Studies in Developed and Developing Countries edited by Gordon F. de Jong and Robert W. Gardner Pergamon Press, New York, and Oxford, 1981. xii plus 394 pp. including tables, figures, bibliography and index. R.73,85.

Cities, Poverty and Development: Urbanization in the Third World by Alan Gilbert and Josef Gugler Oxford University Press, London, 1984. viii plus 246 pp. including tables, figures, notes, bibliography and index. R.23,95 paperback.

Urban Dynamics in Black Africa: An Interdisciplinary Approach by William J. Hanna and Judith L. Hanna Aldine Publishing Co., New York, 1981. viii plus 260 pp. including map, tables, figures, illustrations, bibliography and index. $19,95.

No Shortcuts to Progress: African Development Management in Perspective by Goran Hyden Heinemann, London, 1983. xv plus 223 pp. including tables, figures, notes and index. £4,95 paperback.

African Philosophy: Myth and Reality by Paulin J. Hountondji Hutchinson, London, 1983. 221 pp. including notes, references and index. R.32,75 paperback.

The African City by Anthony O'Connor Hutchinson, London, 1983. 359 pp. including figures, tables, diagrams, bibliography and index. $27,50. $17,50 paperback.

A History of Nigeria by Elizabeth Isichei Longman, London, 1983. xix plus 517 pp. including illustrations, maps, tables, figures, appendix, bibliography and index. £19,95. £7,95 paperback.

Politics and Class Formation in Uganda by Mahmood Mamdani Heinemann, London, 1976. viii plus 339 pp. including notes, tables, bibliography and index. £2,90 paperback.

Maternal and Child Health in Rural Kenya: An Epidemiological Study edited by J.K. van Ginneken and A.S. Muller Croom Helm, London, 1984. 383 pp. including illustrations, tables, references and index. £15,95.

The Road to Zimbabwe: 1890–1980 by Anthony Verrier Jonathan Cape, London, 1986. 364 pp. including map, notes and index. £16,00.

A Peace in Southern Africa: The Lancaster House Conference on Rhodesia, 1979 by Jeffrey Davidow Westview Press, Boulder (Colorado), 1984. 143 pp. including notes, bibliography and index. $22,00.

Botswana's Economy since Independence edited by M.A. Oommen, F.K. Inganji and L.D. Ngcongco Tata McGraw‐Hill Publishing Co., New Delhi, 1983. xx plus 321 pp. including tables, bibliography and index. No price available.

Kings, Commoners and Concessionaires: The Evolution and Dissolution of the Nineteenth‐Century Swazi State by Philip Bonner Cambridge University Press, and Ravan Press, Johannesburg, 1983. viii plus 315 pp. including maps, figures, notes, appendix, bibliography and index. R15,95 paperback.

The Diplomacy of Isolation: South Africa's Foreign Policy‐Making by Deon Geldenhuys Macmillan, Johannesburg, 1984. iii plus 295 pp. including notes and index. Ri 30,00.

Studies on Urbanization in South Africa edited by E.A. Kraayenbrink South African Institute of Race Relations, Johannesburg, 1984. vi plus g6 pp. including tables and notes. R5,95 paperback.

The Emergence of Modern South Africa: State, Capital, and the Incorporation of Organized Labour on the South African Goldfields, 1902–1939 by David Yudelman Greenwood Press, Westport (Connecticut) and London, and David Philip, Cape Town, 1983. xvi plus 315 pp. including figures, tables, bibliography and index. R46,50.

South Africa at War: White Power and the Crisis in Southern Africa by Richard Leonard Lawrence Hill and Co., Westport (Connecticut), 1983. x plus 280 pp. including notes, appendices and index. R3i,35 paperback.

Rural Development in South Africa: A Case Study of the Amatola Basin in the Ciskei edited by Chris de Wet and Simon Bekker Shuter and Shooter, Pietermaritzburg, 1985. xiv plus 165 pp. including tables, figures, maps, bibliography and index. R25,00 paperback.

Call Me Not A Man by Mtutuzeli Matshoba Ravan Press, Johannesburg, 1979. x plus 198 pp. R4,95 paperback.

Anthem of the Decades: A Zulu Epic by Mazisi Kunene Heinemann, London, 1981. xi plus 312 pp. £3,50 paperback.     

Frequency of bone lesions: an inadequate criterion for gunshot wound diagnosis in skeletal remains

A retrospective study was carried out on 130 fatalities due to gunshot wounds to determine whether the combined absence of bone damage and projectile in a skeleton is sufficient to eliminate a diagnosis of gunshot wound. Our findings showed that bone lesions were present in about 90% of the cases and were associated with intracorporeal projectile(s) in about 70% of the cases. The presence or absence of bone lesions seemed independent of the gun characteristics, the shot conditions, and the type of death. The cause of death was predominantly brain injury in cases with bone lesions whereas thoracic, abdominal, and peripheral vascular causes were more frequently encountered in cases without bone damage. We concluded that the combined absence of bone lesions and intracorporeal projectile (about 5% in our series) cannot exclude a diagnosis of death secondary to gunshot wounds.