网络参与下的政府行为选择

网络参与具有技术性与政治性、普遍性与特殊性、间接性与直接性、有序性与无序性等多向度、双重性的特点。这些特点的交织,决定了网络政治参与既可能有利于推进民主政治发展的进程,又可能使政府行政陷入困境。因此,担当公共责任、增强回应能力、引导有序参与,是我国政府的必然选择。     

地方政府公共服务供给能力:影响因素与实现路径

公共服务均等化是和谐社会的重要内容,而地方政府公共服务供给能力提升是公共服务均等化目标实现的重要保障。传统观点认为,地方经济或财政实力决定地方政府公共服务供给能力,但是,我们认为公民参与、社会组织、信息沟通、电子政务技术等对地方政府公共服务供给能力提升更具影响力。在公共治理理论框架下,本文分析了影响地方政府公共服务供给能力提升的经济、政治与社会综合因素,并在此基础上,提出了系统提升地方政府公共服务供给能力的实现路径。     

Secondary transfer of organic gunshot residues: Empirical data to assist the evaluation of three scenarios

The present study aimed at providing data to assess the secondary transfer of organic gunshot residues (OGSR). Three scenarios were evaluated in controlled conditions, namely displacing a firearm from point A to point B, a simple handshake and an arrest involving handcuffing on the ground. Specimens were collected from the firearm, the hands of the shooter and the non-shooter undergoing the secondary transfer in order to compare the amounts detected.Secondary transfer was observed for the three scenarios, but to a different extent. It was found that displacing a firearm resulted in secondary transfer in <50% of the experiments. The firearm also had an influence, as contrary to the pistol, no secondary OGSR were detected using the revolver. Shaking the hand of the shooter also transferred OGSR to the non-shooter's hand. In that case, the amount of OGSR was generally higher on the shooter than on the non-shooter. Finally, the largest secondary transfer was observed after the arrest with handcuffing with positive results in all cases using the pistol. In that scenario, the amounts on the shooter and the non-shooter were in the same range.This study highlights that the secondary transfer must be taken into account in the interpretation of OGSR. Indeed, an individual's hands might be contaminated by handling a firearm or having physical contact with a shooter.     

Do homicide rates increase during weekends and national holidays?

In the UK there has been limited research examining temporal patterns of homicide. To our knowledge, no studies have linked patterns of homicide to the mental health characteristics of the perpetrator. The study examined a national consecutive case series of homicide offences committed between January 1996 and December 2015 in England. Clinical data were collected by the National Confidential Inquiry into Suicide and Safety in Mental Health (NCISH). During this period 10,563 people committed a homicide. The offences were more likely to occur at the weekend, mostly on a Saturday. Weekend homicides were associated with: perpetrators under the age of 25, males and alcohol consumption. Homicides increased markedly on New Year’s Day, and public holidays. Those with a history of mental illness more commonly committed homicide during weekdays, suggesting a different pattern of offending. No change in pattern was found after licensing hours were extended in 2005 to allow 24-h licencing for the sale of alcohol. A public health approach should focus on educating young people on the health risks associated with alcohol, promoting responsible drinking and conflict avoidance, specifically on special events and at weekends.     

中东剧变与阿拉伯世界的未来

当前中东正经历的历史性剧变,不仅引发阿拉伯世界的集体大动荡,而且严重冲击地区政治、安全和地缘政治关系,也对大国的中东政策构成重大挑战。未来中东局势改革已势在必行;伊斯兰政治力量将增大,阿拉伯世界长期陷入内乱,伊朗、土耳其将谋求发挥更大地区影响力;美国全球战略与中东政策面临多重结构性挑战;欧盟在外交、能源、安全、移民等方面遭遇前所未有的压力;国际原油市场受冲击从而影响全球经济复苏。     

对中欧全面战略伙伴关系的新期望

伴随当前国际体系的深刻变化和全球化深入发展的大趋势,中欧关系未来发展走向一直是双方十分关切的重要课题。最近中欧之间一系列高层会晤和战略对话,不仅向外界显示了双方对中欧关系的高度重视,而且进一步明确了对中欧全面战略伙伴关系的新期待。中欧双方近期各自表达的关于中欧关系发展走向的新愿景,既有更加积极性的、相似性的层面,同时也显示了双方仍难以消除的分歧性层面。近期,中国领导人提出以新思维推动中欧关系向更高的水平发展具有重要的现实意义。     

A simulation for exploring the effects of the "trait list" method's subjectivity on consistency and accuracy of ancestry estimations

The nonmetric "trait list" methodology is widely used for estimating ancestry of skeletal remains. However, the effects of the method's embedded subjectivity on subsequent accuracy and consistency are largely unknown. We develop a mathematical simulation to test whether variation in the application of the "trait list" method alters the ancestry estimation for a given case. Our simulation explores how variations in (i) trait selection, (ii) number of traits employed, and (iii) ancestry choice thresholds affect the ancestry estimation of an unidentified skeleton. Using two temporally and geographically diverse samples, the simulation demonstrates that trait selection, trait quantity, threshold choices, and the exclusion of high-frequency traits had minimal effect on estimation of general ancestry. For all data sets and Runs, Accuracy(AS) was maintained above 90%. The authors close with a discussion on the logistical issues present when choosing traits, and how to avoid ancestry bias.