Elektorale Responsivität als Kriterium zur Beurteilung des deutschen Bundestagswahlrechts

We argue that plurality systems strengthen the accountability of governments towards the electorate while proportional systems lead to a broad representation of voter interests in parliament and coalition governments. We demonstrate these effects in an analysis of all German federal elections from 1949 to 2017 using first-tier votes and directly elected deputies as reflecting the plurality segment and second-tier votes and the seat shares of parties as reflecting the proportional representation segment. We show that the percentages of directly elected deputies react more to differences in perceived party competences (party valences) than the percentages of all party deputies. Electoral system reforms should take into account the effects of both parts of the German electoral system.     

Staatskapazität und Verwaltungsreformen in hybriden und autoritären Regimen – am Beispiel der Steuerverwaltung in postsowjetischen Ländern

In order to enlarge state capacity, authoritarian regimes have undertaken considerable efforts to (re-)construct and modernize their administrations. Combining various research strands, this literature review links basic findings of research on authoritarian and hybrid regimes to those on administrative reforms in post-soviet countries. As tax administrations are essential for increasing state capacity, a particular focus is laid on these reforms. Drawing on the cases of Russia, Ukraine, and Kazachstan, the article reveals that stable, hegemonic authoritarian regimes seem to succeed better in increasing administrative efficiency and capability. While professionalizing their civil services, however, tax administrations can still be used to repress opponents. Hybrid regimes which are shaped by frequent government turnovers, by contrast, seem to avoid longsome efficiency-oriented reforms of their administrations.     

Die „Sonntagsfrage“, soziale Erwünschtheit und die AfD: Wie alternative Messmethoden der Politikwissenschaft weiterhelfen können

In Germany, the standard vote intention survey item has come under attack because it failed to correctly measure the vote share of the German party “Alternative für Deutschland” (AfD). We argue that alternative measurement techniques that aim to reduce social desirability bias are better suited for this task. We test three measurement techniques to forecast AfD vote share—a double list experiment, the crosswise-model randomized response technique, and the wisdom of crowds design—and compare their performance to the standard vote intention item. Our results indicate that the wisdom of crowds design is an easily implementable and promising addition to political scientists’ toolbox of survey items.     

Age and Gender Differences in the Associations of Self-Compassion and Emotional Well-being in A Large Adolescent Sample

Adolescence is a challenging developmental period marked with declines in emotional well-being; however, self-compassion has been suggested as a protective factor. This cross-sectional survey study (N?=?765, grades 7th to 12th; 53?% female; 4?% Hispanic ethnicity; 64?% White and 21?% Black) examined whether adolescents’ self-compassion differed by age and gender, and secondly, whether its associations with emotional well-being (perceived stress, life satisfaction, distress intolerance, depressive symptoms, and anxiety) also differed by age and gender. The findings indicated that older females had the lowest self-compassion levels compared to younger females or all-age males. Self-compassion was associated with all emotional well-being measures, and gender and/or age moderated the associations with anxiety and depressive symptoms. Among older adolescents, self-compassion had a greater protective effect on anxiety for boys than for girls. Additionally, older adolescents with low and average self-compassion had greater levels of depressive symptoms than those with high self-compassion. These results may inform for whom and at what age self-compassion interventions may be implemented to protect adolescents from further declines in emotional well-being.     

Understanding the Influence of Mental Health Diagnosis and Gender on Placement Decisions for Justice-Involved Youth

Justice-involved youth have high rates of psychiatric diagnoses, and these youth are often placed out-of-home, although evidence identifies several negative implications of juvenile confinement, especially for youth with psychopathology. Furthermore, youth in the justice system may be processed differently based on gender. As males and females tend to manifest symptoms differently, the psychopathology of youth may act to moderate the relationship between gender and placement in the juvenile justice system. The present study used a large, diverse sample (n?=?9?851, 19.8?% female) to examine whether youth placed in various types of out-of-home facilities differed in terms of externalizing, internalizing, substance use, or comorbid disorders, and to determine the predictive value of mental health diagnoses in placement decisions. The moderation effect of psychopathology and substance use on the relationship between gender and placement also was explored. The results indicated that each type of disorder differed across placements, with internalizing being most prevalent in non-secure, and externalizing, comorbid, and substance use being most prevalent in secure settings. Mental health diagnoses improved the prediction of placement in each out-of-home placement beyond legal and demographic factors such that externalizing and substance use disorders decreased the likelihood of placement in non-secure settings, and internalizing, externalizing, and substance use disorders increased the likelihood of placement in secure and state-secure facilities. The relationship between internalizing pathology and placement in more secure facilities was moderated by externalizing pathology. The relationship between gender and placement was significantly moderated by mental health such that females with mental health diagnoses receive less secure placements. Implications for policymakers and practitioners are discussed, as well as implications for reforming juvenile justice within a developmental approach.     

Reciprocal Relationships between Teacher Ratings of Internalizing and Externalizing Behaviors in Adolescents with Different Levels of Cognitive Abilities

Are internalizing and externalizing behavior problems interrelated via mutually reinforcing relationships (with each behavior leading to increases over time in levels of the other behavior) or mutually suppressing relationships (with each behavior leading to decreases over time in levels of the other behavior)? Past research on the directionality of these relationships has led to ambiguous results, particularly in adolescence. Furthermore, the extent to which prior results will generalize to adolescents with low levels of cognitive abilities remains unknown. This second limit is particularly important, given that these adolescents are known to present higher levels of externalizing and internalizing behaviors than their peers with average-to-high levels of cognitive abilities, and that the mechanisms involved in the reciprocal relationships between these two types of behaviors may differ across both populations. This study examines the directionality of the longitudinal relationships between externalizing and internalizing behavior problems as rated by teachers across three measurement waves (corresponding to Grades 8–10) in matched samples of 138 adolescents (34.78?% girls) with low levels of cognitive abilities and 556 adolescents (44.88?% girls) with average-to-high levels of cognitive abilities. The results showed that the measurement structure was fully equivalent across time periods and groups of adolescents, revealing high levels of developmental stability in both types of problems, and moderately high levels of cross-sectional associations. Levels of both internalizing and externalizing behaviors were higher among adolescents with low levels of cognitive abilities relative to those with average-to-high levels of cognitive abilities. Finally, the predictive analyses revealed negative reciprocal longitudinal relationships (i.e., mutually suppressing relationships) between externalizing and internalizing problems, a result that was replicated within samples of adolescents with low, and average-to-high levels of cognitive ability.     

Childhood Adversity and Early Initiation of Alcohol Use in Two Representative Samples of Puerto Rican Youth

Early alcohol use is associated with multiple negative outcomes later in life, including substance use disorders. Identification of factors related to this very early risk indicator can help inform early prevention efforts. This study prospectively examined the relationship between childhood adversities and early initiation of alcohol use (by age 14) among Puerto Rican youth, the Latino subgroup at highest risk for alcohol use disorders in adulthood. The data come from the Boricua Youth Study, a longitudinal study of Puerto Rican youth in two sites (South Bronx, New York, and the standard metropolitan area of San Juan, Puerto Rico). We focus on youth who were ages 10 and older at Wave 1 [M _{age at Wave 1} (SE)?=?11.64(0.05), N?=?1259, 48.85?% females]. Twelve childhood adversities were measured at Wave 1 and include 10 adverse childhood experiences commonly studied and two additional ones (exposure to violence and discrimination) that were deemed relevant for this study’s population. Early initiation of alcohol use was determined based on youth report at Waves 1 through 3 (each wave 1 year apart). Cox proportional hazards models showed that, when considered individually, adversities reflecting child maltreatment, parental maladjustment, and sociocultural stressors were related to early initiation of alcohol use. Significant gender interactions were identified for parental emotional problems and exposure to violence, with associations found among girls only. Adversities often co-occurred, and when they were considered jointly, physical and emotional abuse, parental antisocial personality, and exposure to violence had independent associations with early alcohol use, with a stronger influence of exposure to violence in girls compared to boys. The accumulation of adversities, regardless of the specific type of exposure, increased the risk for starting to drink at a young age in a linear way. The associations between childhood adversities and early alcohol use were generally consistent across sociocultural contexts, in spite of differences in the prevalence of exposure to adversity. Our findings highlight the importance of targeting multiple adversities and expanding the notion of adversity to capture the experiences of specific groups more adequately.