A Subnational Study of Insurgency: FARC Violence in the 1990s

This article examines the traditional political and economic factors that have been purported to explain the prevalence of insurgency. It tests the following hypotheses at the subnational level in Colombia: guerrilla violence is positively associated with exports; higher levels of insurgency are associated with low levels of GDP per capita or negative growth rates; guerrilla violence emerges in the context of weak state presence; and higher levels of state repression are associated with higher levels of insurgent violence. The analysis utilizes a zero-inflated negative binomial to capture dynamics of both intensity and onset of violence. The econometric analysis is supplemented with cartographic visualization and qualitative analysis.     

For an International of Workers and Peoples

It is probably not easy for a foreign reader to understand many of our difficulties. It is only natural. Each people and each country have a life of their own, their own laws, their own hopes and misconceptions, and their own ideals. Such diversity is wonderful; it needs to be developed rather than stifled. I, for one, am sick of the attempts of some politicians to teach others how to live and what policy to conduct.—Mikhail Gorbachev.’¹

The report [Gorbachev's report at the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the October Revolution] . . . makes a world assessment at variance with our understanding, virtually liquidating the contradictions of the period and acts as a damper on the world revolutionary movement. Our Party cannot accept its analysis, its argumentations and its conclusions.—Resolution of the Communist Party of India—Marxist.²

The Marxism we follow is superior to that followed by them [the Communist Party of the Soviet Union]—Saroj Mukherjee, Secretary, West Bengal State Committee of the Communist Party of India—Marxist.³     

Impact of the Mass Media in Changing Attitudes Towards Violence Against Women in Bangladesh: Findings from a National Survey

To date, there have been no nationally representative studies examining the influence of media on norms regarding violence against women (VAW) among the general population. Data for this study came from the 2011 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys that completed 17,842 interviews with ever-married women. Results of logistic regressions showed that among the three media outlets (TV, radio, and newspaper), only TV had a very small significant effect on women’s attitudes towards VAW (r = .031; p < .01). Community gender norms mediate the effect of television on women’s support of gender equitable norms. Being younger, non-Muslims, educated, living in wealthy households, and having greater autonomy, were significantly associated with greater support for gender equitable norms. Since media did not have substantial influence on gender norms related to VAW, our findings implied that efforts to promote gender norms change in society need to consider other strategies.     

Dimensions of state disruption and international responses

In the post-Cold War period there has been a dramatic increase in the number of states which can be classified as disrupted, thus creating a major source of political, social and military turbulence and instability in world politics. The causes have been varied, ranging from the fragmentation of the national elite and breakdown of social order, ethnic antagonisms, ideological struggle, confessional or sectarian strife to legitimacy crises and separatism. This has focused attention once again on the future of the international system. This paper considers the nature of disrupted states, the external and internal sources of the disruption, and the options that are available to the international community, in particular whether there is an appropriate role for the United Nations.     

The Illegal Drug Industry,Violence and the Colombian Economy: A Department Level Analysis

Previous research on the Colombian illegal drug trade, which is generally qualitative in approach and focused on the national level, has concluded that the drug industry harms the economy. In order to test out this widespread claim, this article seeks to differentiate between the corrosive economic effects of Colombia's persistently high levels of generalised political violence and the specific consequences of the cocaine trade. It combines historical national level analysis with quantitative department analysis and identifies the economic effects of both paramilitary and guerrilla violence, thereby contributing to a closer examination of the impact of the drugs trade on the economy. The results reveal that paramilitary violence is related positively to exports but negatively to gross domestic product. Guerrilla violence, however, appears to harm exports but, surprisingly, not gross domestic product. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, coca cultivation does not have independent effects on exports or GDP, a conclusion which suggests that Colombia's economic problems stem more from political violence than from the drug trade in itself.     

Do Social Protection Transfers Reduce Poverty and Vulnerability to Poverty in Pakistan? Household Level Evidence from Punjab

Empirical studies in different developing countries have investigated the impact of social protection (SP) on ex-post poverty; however, few studies analysed the impact of SP on ex-ante vulnerability to poverty (VtP). This paper contributes to the literature by evaluating the impact of SP on vulnerability to poverty (VtP) and poverty rates among households in the Punjab province of Pakistan. A hierarchical modelling approach is used to analyse the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS-2011) data of about 90,000 households. Matching methods and simultaneous endogenous switching regression are used to control for potential selection bias and estimate average treatment effects. Our results show that SP has a positive impact in reducing household poverty and VtP, but this impact is mainly driven by a short-term flood relief cash transfer programme, pension of government employees and households’ regular purchase from utility store network.     

Decomposing the Labour Productivity Gap between Migrant-Owned and Native-Owned Firms in Sub-Saharan Africa

Migration studies have been primarily based on the movement of individuals from developing to developed economies, with a focus on the impact of migrants on host country wages. In this study we take a different angle by exploring the labour productivity of migrant-owned firms versus native-owned firms in 20 African economies using firm-level data. We find that labour productivity is 78 per cent higher in migrant-owned firms than native-owned firms. Using the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method we find that structural effects account for 80 per cent of the labour productivity gap. Returns to manager education largely explain the productivity advantage of migrant-owned firms over native-owned firms. Interactions with the government, access to finance, informality, and power outages are also considerable contributors to the labour productivity gap.     

Conflict-Induced Displacement and Violence in Colombia

Recent work in the refugee literature finds that both insurgents hiding in camps and aid to refugees may increase violence. This article assesses whether this theory applies to Conflict Induced Displaced People (IDPs). Specifically, it asks if the arrival of IDPs increases leftist violence in Colombia. Colombia has high numbers of IDPs, significant insurgent violence, and available sub-national data to enable an examination of IDP flows on leftist violence. In the Colombian case, the arrival of conflict induced displaced people is not associated with increased leftist violence.