Probability of default models of Russian banks

This paper presents results from an econometric analysis of Russian bank defaults during the period 1997–2003, focusing on the extent to which publicly available information from quarterly bank balance sheets is useful in predicting future defaults. Binary choice models are estimated to construct the probability of default model. In the first part of the paper we analyse bank survival over the financial crisis of 1998. We find that preliminary expert clustering or automatic clustering improves the predictive power of the models and incorporation of macrovariables into the models is useful. Heuristic criteria are suggested to help compare model performance from the perspectives of investors or banks supervision authorities. In the second part of the paper we use the probability of default models developed in the first part in rolling windows to analyse the Russian banking system trends after the crisis 1998.     

Exposure to School Bullying and Psychological Health in Young Adulthood: A Prospective 10-Year Follow-Up Study

Being bullied at school is strongly related to psychological health complaints at the same time point. Studies have also found long-term associations, but few have combined a prospective design with children’s own reports on bullying, and conducted gender-specific analyses. The present study assesses health consequences in young adulthood of self-reported victimization in adolescence using data from Child-LNU in 2000 and the follow-up in 2010 (including 63% of the original sample, n = 813). At ages 10–18 a clear cross-sectional association was found for both girls and boys. Among girls, exposure to bullying also predicted psychological complaints 10 years later, at ages 20–28 (OR = 2.86). This association was not explained by socioeconomic circumstances, neither in adolescence nor in young adulthood. Instead, it can partly be understood as victimization, among adolescent girls, being associated with negative self-image and psychological health as well as with deficits in social resources more generally.