Randomized experiments in criminology: What have we learned in the last two decades?

This paper aims to review randomized experiments in criminology with offending outcomes and reasonably large numbers that were published between 1982 and 2004. A total of 83 experiments are summarized, compared with only 35 published between 1957 and 1981: 12 on policing, 13 on prevention, 14 on corrections, 22 on courts, and 22 on community interventions. Randomized experiments are still relatively uncommon, but there have been more large-scale multi-site experiments and replication programs. There have also been several experiments in which 100 or more places were randomly assigned. Relatively few experiments (only 10 out of 83) were conducted outside the United States. Meta-analyses suggest that prevention methods, correctional therapy, batterer programs, drug courts, juvenile restitution and deterrent policing were effective in reducing offending, while Scared Straight and boot camp programs caused a significant increase in offending.     

对我国发展循环经济的思考

从20世纪80年代开始,我国用短短的20多年走完了发达国家上百年的历程。发展规模之大、速度之快世所罕见。但是,我们在发展中走的仍是传统发展之路,能源、资源消耗大,经济、社会效益低,特别是生态环境破坏严重、代价高昂。有关专家提出,靠传统的发展模式解决不了经济发展中面临的资源生产率问题,必须树立科学发展观,坚定地实施可持续发展战略,走循环经济发展之路。本文着力探讨解决经济增长与资源和生态环境之间的矛盾的出路———发展循环经济,并提出了相应的对策措施。     

Analyzing linked systems of negotiations

This article presents a conceptual framework for analyzing the structure and dynamics of what the authors call linked systems of negotiations. Even such seemingly straightforward transactions as the purchase of a family car tend to involve linked negotiations. The framework highlights the importance of internegotiation processes in shaping Zones of Possible Agreement, and proposes a typology of linkage. By mapping out and reengineering linked systems, negotiators can enhance their ability to shape the structure within which their negotiations take place.     

The Soviet Union and population: theory,problems, and population policy

Until the important public dialog on 3rd World population issues began in the Soviet Uuion in 1965, ideological limitations and bureaucratic interests prevented policy makers from recognizing the existence of a world of national "population problem." Since then, freer discussions of the Soviet Union's surprising decline in birthrate and labor shortages have led to serious policy questions. Conflicting policy goals, however, have resulted in only modest pronatalist policies. The Soviet population problem is a result of interregional disparities in population growth rates between the highly urbanized Soviet European populations with low birth rates and the least urbanized Central Asians with dramatically higher birth rates. As a result, these essentially Muslim people will provide the only major increases in labor resources and an increasing percentage of Soviet armed forces recruits. Policy planners are thus faced with difficult options. Current policies stressing technological transfers from the west and greater labor productivity, however, are unlikely to solve further labor shortages and regional imbalances. Ultimately, nonEuropana regions will be in an improved bargaining position for more favorable nationwide economic policies and for a greater role in policy planning.