A Predictive Test of Voters' Economic Benchmarking: The 2013 German Bundestag Election

Do voters judge their national economy relative to economic performance abroad? In 2013 we took advantage of the German Bundestag election to test this hypothesis predictively. Nearly two months prior to the election, we published an election forecast relying on a theory-driven empirical model of election outcomes that draws on previous election outcomes; characteristics of the government and of voters; and, most originally, the relative economic performance of Germany (‘benchmarked' growth) in comparison to the three other most important economies in Europe – France, the UK and Italy. Our forecast put the outgoing coalition government of CDU/CSU and FDP at 47.05 per cent of the popular vote deviating from the actual outcome of 46.3 by 0.75 points. This makes our forecast one of the most accurate in this election cycle. Despite one-and-a-half months of lead time, our forecast performed on par or slightly better than the last poll results issued only two days before the election.     

Testing the west: Consumerism and national identity in eastern Germany

With unification, Western‐style consumerism washed over East Germany in a gigantic wave that stood in marked contrast to the socialist reality of limited supply and suppressed demands. This article examines the impact of consumerism as a repository of national identities in the new Länder in the aftermath of 1989. It argues that from a quantitative perspective East Germans firmly internalised consumerism by approximating to the consumption levels of their Western compatriots. Easterners also filled consumerism with political meaning. By buying certain products they expressed emerging regional pride, defiance against the sweeping transformation processes and a nostalgic and romanticised reference to the GDR past. These mass‐cultural expressions of national identity serve as telling indicators for the continued separation of the publics’ psyche in east and west.     

Prospects for Solving the Cyprus Problem and the Role of the European Union

Although the Cyprus problem is basically an international questionand a geopolitical issue, the problem's domestic aspects aredirectly related to its international dimension. Resolutionof the problem's domestic aspects, within the framework of afederal constitutional arrangement based on the high-level agreementsof 1977 and 1979, the relevant United Nations resolutions, andthe provisions of the European Union acquis communautaire isperhaps possible. A federal system is a compromise between aunitary state, as initially desired by the Greek Cypriot majority-community,and a confederation, as currently pursued by the Turkish Cypriotminority-community with the support of Turkey. Nevertheless,even though federation is the agreed framework for a solution,a sizable proportion of Greek Cypriots express misgivings abouta federal solution because they fear that what is actually beingdiscussed is a system lying between federation and confederation.A viable federal solution would create a pluralist democraticstate with a market-oriented economy in the Eastern Mediterranean.Given that the Republic of Cyprus is on its way to joining theEU, the EU could play a substantive role in promoting such anoutcome. From a geopolitical perspective, a united Cyprus, asa member of the EU, would be an asset to the EU and also contributeto stability and security in the Eastern Mediterranean.