The Conventional Missile Capabilities of China's Second Artillery Force: Cornerstone of Deterrence and Warfighting

Abstract

Since its establishment in the early 1990s, the conventional missile component of the People's Liberation Army's Second Artillery Force (SAF) has emerged as a centerpiece of China's accelerating military modernization program. The conventional missile force has grown in size and sophistication, and China has developed a doctrine for its employment. Chinese military publications emphasize that it plays an increasingly important role in deterrence and warfighting. In particular, Chinese sources underscore its role in achieving information dominance, air superiority, and sea control as well as countering third-party intervention. China's development of advanced conventional missile capabilities highlights the growing vulnerability of fixed bases and surface ships. Moreover, organizational tendencies, could fuel dangerous escalation. In response to these challenges, the United States must adapt its traditional approach to military operations and deterrence in the Asia-Pacific.     

An “Assertive” China? Insights from Interviews

Abstract

Recent years have witnessed the emergence of a more assertive China. What happened to China's “peaceful rise” and “charm offensive”? What explains the changes in China's foreign policy? According to interviews with Beijing and Shanghai-based analysts, China's assertiveness between 2008 and 2010 can be divided into two waves, each triggered by a different cause. The first wave seems triggered by a sense in Beijing that Washington, DC was more differential to China's interests, and less committed to East Asia. The second wave seems best explained as China's response to what it perceived as a far more assertive and threatening United States. Both waves were amplified by two domestic challenges: Chinese leaders’ hypersensitivity to popular nationalism and poor bureaucratic coordination among an expanding number of foreign policy actors.     

Kyrgyzstan between democratization and ethnic intolerance

The international community has expressed great concern about the treatment of the Uzbek minority in the south of Kyrgyzstan and has called on the majority community to make major efforts to improve the situation. The article compares the treatment of minorities in Kyrgyzstan with analogous situations in the Balkans and contends that, given the European-style ethno-national state model and democratic political system that have been adopted by independent Kyrgyzstan, such calls are unrealistic.     

Coalitions,convergence and corporate governance reform in Indonesia

This paper argues that Indonesia's corporate governance system is unlikely to converge on the outsider model of corporate governance, at least in so far as this means an exact replication of this model. While the Indonesian government has introduced a range of corporate governance reforms aimed at bringing in key elements of the outsider model since the mid-1980s, and especially since the onset of the Asian crisis, there have been serious problems with the implementation and enforcement of these reforms. Underlying this outcome, it is argued, has been the structure of power and interest within Indonesia: the balance of power between the main coalitions of interest has been such that the political preconditions for the proper operation of the outsider model have not yet been established.     

Development,foreign aid and post-development in Timor-Leste

Post-development theories have successfully challenged many of the ways in which we think about development but have yet to substantially influence development practice. In this paper I explore what opportunities exist for applying post-development ideas within the current development apparatus of Timor-Leste. Four types of community-focused programmes are analysed: sectoral project-based initiatives, institutional capacity-building programmes, community partnerships and small grants programmes. While alternative opportunities are clearly shown to be present, it is argued that they are rarely realised because of the overwhelming priority to produce better agents of development, rather than those able to pursue ‘alternatives-to-development’. The paper concludes by suggesting that the development apparatus itself may not be inherently faulted; instead this apparatus could be usefully utilised by those inspired by alternative imaginaries to pursue post-development goals.     

‘No ‘til we know.’ Fela ba a tseba naa? Using African languages to communicate about HIV and AIDS to young South Africans

Abstract

An experiment was conducted in order to determine the extent to which the presentation of HIV and AIDS messages in different languages would affect the appreciation and comprehension of these messages among young South Africans. Interviews were carried out with 60 learners in rural and peri-rural schools in Limpopo Province. Four messages (on posters or in radio advertisements), were presented in three languages. The interviews focused on appreciation (to what extent do the participants like the messages?), perceived comprehension (to what extent do the participants think that they understand the message?), and actual comprehension (to what extent do the participants really understand the message?). The language of presentation did not prove to have any influence on appreciation, perceived comprehension or actual comprehension. A considerable gap was found between perceived comprehension and actual comprehension; participants overestimated their level of understanding. Significant correlations were found between perceived comprehension and appreciation, indicating that the better members of this target group think they understand HIV and AIDS messages, the more they like them.     

Local Politics,Central Power: The Future of Representative Local Government in England

When Labour took power in 1997, local government was battered and bruised, but it had survived, and indeed retained much of its vitality. What would happen next? Where the Conservatives had used the language of competition, New Labour promoted its policies around an ideology of modernisation, and rapidly introduced a new legal framework, new powers and strong incentives to improve performance. But by 2004, in the run-up to another general election, Labour increasingly emphasised the rights of consumers to choose providers of services, and the value of involving the private sector in public sector provision. There were proposals to take the finance for education and social services out of local authority control. A complex geography of partnerships and networks had developed, which required small executives of salaried councillors, far fewer than the large numbers needed by the committee system. But turnout in local elections remained low, and membership of both Labour and Conservative parties declined. The paper uses a simple stakeholder analysis to show how councillors and local activists were marginalised. It suggests that the government has a choice: it could either accept that the era of multi-skilled councillors responsible for the multi-purpose local authorities is ending, or it could radically rationalise the present quangos, partnerships and other governance structures to re-create it.     

Terrorism and the blind men's elephant

Terrorism is best understood as a form of warfare. Considerable division exists among researchers on the issue of defining terrorism. A minority propose that terrorism is a form of warfare, possibly identical to guerrilla warfare. However, the majority disagree with this position, instead viewing terrorism as a distinct and separate phenomenon. This divergence has been fuelled by the distinctive questions of morality which cloak any consideration of terrorism. The impact of this special morality dimension to the problem is examined, with the focus being directed to biases arising from the moral standpoint which has been adopted by most. It is argued that many of the so‐called distinctions between terrorism and warfare are illusionary. The article concludes that while there are solutions to the current conceptual deadlock these are unlikely to be realised in the near future.     

The Role of Suicide in Politics,Conflict, and Terrorism

ABSTRACT

The central argument of this paper is that suicide has had a long and explicit role in politics and in conflict. Turning to historical examples for insight offers many advantages to current efforts to understand and respond to suicide terrorism. In particular, it facilitates greater objectivity and a calmer consideration of the actors and circumstances than can often be the case with contemporary events. Explanations of suicide in terms of madness, brainwashing, coercion, and fanaticism ring hollow with many of the historical cases, and other explanations, causes, and processes take on greater significance. By considering a number of case examples, this article shows how improved historical awareness can provide badly needed objective insight and help reveal strategic trends and issues. The article illustrates how historical cases offer valuable material and insight which is often extremely difficult to acquire on contemporary protagonists. Lessons and issues for research and policy are highlighted.

I balanced all, brought all to mind,

The years to come seemed waste of breath,

A waste of breath the years behind

In balance with this life, this death

—W. B. Yeats ¹ 1. W. B. Yeats, “An Irish airman forsees his death.” The Poems (London: Everyman, 1919/1990).