The influence of interest: Real US interest rates and bilateral investment treaties

Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) present developing countries with a trade-off. BITs plausibly increase access to international capital in the form of foreign direct investment (FDI), but at the cost of substantially curtailing a government’s policy autonomy. Nearly 3000 BITs have been entered into, suggesting that many countries have found this trade-off acceptable. But governments’ enthusiasm for signing and ratifying BITs has varied considerably across countries and across time. Why are BITs more popular in some places and times than others? We argue that capital scarcity is an important driver of BIT signings: The trade-off inherent in BITs becomes more attractive to governments as the need to secure access to international capital increases. More specifically, we argue that the coincidence of high US interest rates and net external financial liabilities heightens governments’ incentives to secure access to foreign capital, and therefore results in BIT signings. Empirical evidence is consistent with our theory.     

Beyond Taphonomy: Exploring Craniometric Variation Among Anatomical Material

Anatomical crania are occasionally encountered in forensic anthropology laboratories when that material is mistaken for forensically significant human remains. Using craniometric analyses and statistical measures of sample homogeneity, we determine whether anatomical material can be described as a single, homogenous group or as a diverse mix of populations. Twenty‐one interlandmark distances were collected from 85 anatomical preparations. Distance measures were calculated between all pairs using a pooled within‐sample variance/covariance matrix and then subjected to a Defrise‐Gussenhoven test between each paired distance to test whether each pair was drawn randomly from the same population. In the Defrise‐Gussenhoven analysis, twenty‐two percent (n = 66) of the 300 pairwise combinations were significant at the 0.05 level or below. The level of homogeneity suggests a majority of that material originated from the subcontinent of India or West Asia. Therefore, anatomical material can be viewed as a moderately homogenous group, but with a shared taphonomic history.     

Desistance and Legitimacy: The Impact of Offender Notification Meetings on Recidivism among High Risk Offenders

Legitimacy-based approaches to crime prevention assume that individuals will comply with the law when they believe that the law and its agents are legitimate and act in ways that are “fair” and “just.” Currently, legitimacy-based programs are shown to lower aggregate levels of crime; yet, no study has investigated whether such programs influence individual offending. Using quasi-experimental design and survival analyses, this study evaluates the effectiveness of one such program—Chicago’s Project Safe Neighborhoods’ (PSN) Offender Notification Forums—at reducing individual recidivism among a population of returning prisoners. Results suggest that involvement in PSN significantly reduces the risk of subsequent incarceration and is associated with significantly longer intervals that offenders remain on the street and out of prison. As the first study to provide individual-level evidence promoting legitimacy-based interventions on patterns of individual offending, out study suggests these interventions can and do reduce rates of recidivism.     

Corruption and hold-up: the role of intermediaries

Corrupt contracts are illegal and, therefore, vulnerable to hold-up. That is, a bureaucrat who has accepted a bribe from a firm in exchange for a license may still choose not to grant the firm that license (hold-up). This paper develops a model to study the role that intermediaries play in preventing hold-up. There are two types of firms, good firms that are legally entitled to receive a license, and harmful firms that are not. Without intermediaries only good firms enter the market, and harmful firms do not enter because of hold-up. Intermediaries are legally permitted to help firms reduce their navigation costs of obtaining licenses. Thus, intermediaries increase entry of good firms. However, by utilizing the legal aspects of their transaction with good firms as leverage against the bureaucrat, intermediaries can prevent hold-up among harmful firms. Thus, intermediaries increase participation by both good and harmful firms and their welfare costs are ambiguous. Data obtained from occurrences of violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act are broadly consistent with our model.     

The efficacy of foot patrol in violent places

Objectives

This study examines the effectiveness of foot patrol in violent micro-places. A large urban police department deployed foot patrol in micro-places (hot spots) for a period of 90 days for two shifts each day. Our objective is to determine whether this activity impacted violent crime in these hot spots and whether spatial displacement of crime occurred.

Methods

Eight eligible foot beat locations were set by examining crime rates for previous years in order to identify micro-places of high criminal activity. We employed a quasi-experimental design comparing the four treatment to the four control areas, estimating panel-specific autoregressive models for 30 weeks prior to and 40 weeks after the treatment.

Results

Time series models revealed statistically significant reductions in violent crime in the micro-places receiving foot patrol treatment, while no such reductions were observed in the control areas. The deterrent effect, however, was short and dissipated quickly. Control areas did not experience any crime prevention benefit during this time period. No evidence of crime displacement to spatially contiguous areas was detected.

Conclusions

This contributes to the growing body of knowledge that focused police strategies within hot spots impact violent crime. Specifically, the implementation of foot patrol in high crime hot spots led to measurable reductions in aggravated assaults and robberies, without displacing crime to contiguous areas.

     

Structuring Judicial Discretion in China: Exploring the 2014 Sentencing Guidelines

In recent years, a range of western jurisdictions has introduced reforms designed to restrict and guide judicial discretion at sentencing. The reforms enacted include mandatory sentencing laws and guiding statutes prescribing sentencing purposes and principles as well as important aggravating and mitigating factors. However, formal guidelines are the most promising and well-studied innovation. We may now add China to the growing list of countries that have recognized the utility of guidelines. Over the past decade, China has slowly developed sentencing guidelines for its courts. The new guidelines contain both general directions with respect to the determination of sentence as well as specific numerical guidelines for common offences. The guidelines do not follow the approach taken by the US schemes, many of which employ a two-dimensional sentencing grid. Instead, China has adopted a strategy consisting of “Starting Point” sentences which are then adjusted by the court to reflect relevant mitigating and aggravating factors. This approach is much closer to the guidelines developed in England and Wales and those proposed but not yet implemented in New Zealand and Israel. In this article, we explore the new Chinese guidelines and provide a limited comparative analysis with guidelines in other jurisdictions. England and Wales is selected as the principal comparator since it has developed and implemented a comprehensive system consisting of both offence-specified guidelines as well as generic guidelines.     

A comparison of seclusion rates between intellectual disability and non-intellectual disability services: the effect of gender and diagnosis

Introduction: The use of seclusion as a means of managing the extreme behaviours forensic patients in secure settings is a controversial yet often common practice, despite there being little evidence that seclusion as a practice has any significant therapeutic value for the patient. The aim of this study was to explore the use of seclusion and whether this differs as a function of gender and diagnosis across secure services. Method: This study collated data from 11 medium and low secure hospitals that admit male and female patients, with some services providing services for patients with intellectual disability (with or without co-morbid disorders), and others for patients with mental illness and/or personality disorder only. Results: Both gender and diagnosis were associated with differential seclusion rates. Seclusions were three times longer for patients in the non-ID compared to the ID service. Male seclusions (for any diagnosis) were around twice as long as those in female services. Female ID patients spent significantly less time in seclusion compared to other groups. Female ID was associated with two to three times the number of seclusion events per patient compared to other groups. No statistically significant association between the type of service and the reason for a patient being secluded. Conclusions: A range of organisational factors that determine the use and duration of seclusion are cited and merit further exploration. High rates of psychiatric co-morbidity and the complexity of patients admitted to services may also mediate risk and use of seclusion. The study supports the use of early intervention techniques and the adoption of positive behaviour support.