A paper tiger? Political implications of an export‐led growth strategy for South Africa

The paper examines the theoretical and empirical debates surrounding the benefits of an export‐led growth strategy. The experience of two newly industrialised countries are analyzed and discussed in relation to South Africa's political and economic position. The writers attempt to show that an uncritical acceptance of ‘recipes’ for economic development, which do not take into account specific domestic political and economic factors, could lead to inappropriate policy formulation and implementation.     

The contradictions of neo-extractivism and social policy: the role of raw material exports in the Brazilian political crisis

This article explores how contradictory development tendencies within Brazil’s primary sector have contributed to the country’s enduring political crisis. I show that President Rousseff, when dealing with declining royalty payments from natural resource exports and a decrease in tax revenue from imports, financed social policies in ways that her opponents branded as unconstitutional to remove her from power. After documenting the central players within the political crisis, namely those who have been under investigation in Operação Lava Jato (Operation Car Wash), I illustrate how the ongoing corruption scandals plaguing Brazil have their roots in the country’s raw material export industries.     

The Politics of Infrastructural Projects: A Case for Evidence-Based Policymaking

Many developing countries currently face tightening fiscal constraints as a result of the global financial crisis and associated reduction in both credit and demand. Policymarkers therefore have less fiscal space within which to undertake projects, so the opportunity cost of any misallocation of resources will be correspondingly higher. There is therefore an increasing need to rely more on evidence-based policymaking (EBPM). The is particularly so for large infrastructural projects, as these tend to be costly, and especially for transportation projects as these are particularly prone to result in sub-optimal outcomes. This paper examines the policy process for the implementation of the Jamaican Highway 2000, one of the largest and most costly infrastructure projects in Jamaica in recent years. A number of primary and secondary data sources were explored to ascertain the extent to which the decision to implement the project reflects a case for evidence-based decision-making in practice. This made it clear that the decision was taken at least partly on political grounds, largely in the absence of any supportive evidence, and on the basis of over-optimistic and unrealistic assumptions, and that this has created a number of serious, long-term challenges for Jamaica.     

Examining the effectiveness of a UK community-based sexual offender treatment programme for child abusers

Abstract

An analysis of psychometric data from a sample of 341 UK child abusers who had completed a probation-based sex offender treatment programme was carried out in order to assess the effectiveness of therapeutic treatment. A cluster analysis was also undertaken to examine the pattern of pre-treatment problems. Three clusters of offenders, with distinctly different psychometric profiles, were identified depending upon the number and extent of their offence-specific and social adequacy problems. These were labelled Low need, Medium need and High need. Pre–post analyses revealed clinically significant treatment effects for the entire sample, with differing effects found across the clusters as follows: 50–81% of the Low need group scored within the cut-off (or normative range) at the post stage, while between 3% and 26% had shifted to a clinically significant degree; 34–75% of the Medium need group scored within the cut-off range after treatment, while between 9% and 100% had shifted to a clinically significant degree; 16–52% of the High need sample scored within the cut-off at the post-treatment stage, and between 15% and 80% had shifted to a clinically significant degree.     

Dynamic risk factors: a theoretical dead-end?

While the quality of empirical research on risk predication, assessment and management in the sexual offending field has been of a high standard, relatively little attention has been paid to theoretical issues related to risk and its conceptualisation. In this paper, we develop alternative ways of understanding dynamic risk factors and their utility in theory construction and case formulation. We would stress that this work is of a preliminary nature but believe that it is crucial that standard clinical and research practices are critically challenged from time to time, and their underlying theoretical assumptions evaluated. Our aim is to encourage researchers and practitioners to look at the issue of dynamic risk factors from a different viewpoint; one that we hope can help move the sex offender field forward.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of the Supporting Offenders through Restoration Inside (SORI) Programme delivered in seven prisons in England and Wales

Purpose. Supporting Offenders through Restoration Inside (SORI) is a programme that aims to: increase victim empathy in offenders; motivate offenders to change their offending behaviour; and to take personal responsibility for the harm that he has caused. A 5‐day course based on the SORI principles has been piloted across seven prison sites in the UK. The aim of the study reported here was to evaluate the effectiveness of the programme across these sites. Methods. Three psychometric questionnaires [Victim Concerns, Locus of Control, and Stages of Change (SoC) scales] were administered to the participants immediately before and after the programme had taken place (data were available for 131 participants for the Victim Concern Scale, 82 participants for the Locus of Control measure, and 96 participants for the SoC questionnaire). These psychometric measures were the primary research outcome. Statistical analyses were employed to assess whether any changes had been effected by the programme. Results. The results of this study found that: participants had an enhanced victim concern for all types of victims, were more motivated to change their offending behaviours, and were more willing to take responsibility for their actions, after completion of the course. No change was found in terms of participants seeing themselves as being more in control of their actions/environment. Conclusions. The results lend support for the notion that the 5‐day SORI course is effective in increasing participants’ levels of victim concern and motivation to change, while not really impacting upon levels of ownership for one's ownership for one's actions. Suggestions for future research and limitations of the study are discussed in the paper.     

Sexual recidivism: A review of static,dynamic and actuarial predictors

The need for accurate risk assessment of sexual offence recidivism has never been greater. It is widely accepted that actuarial risk instruments outperform clinical judgement and the literature has recently witnessed a surge of empirically derived actuarial measures. However, in spite of the increased levels of predictive accuracy, actuarial measures have been criticized as being unrepresentative, lacking specificity, and being heavily reliant on static risk factors without taking into account dynamic risk, psychological emotional states and treatment effects. Rather than offering a critique of the actuarial movement, this paper offers a summary of static and dynamic risk factors associated with sexual offence recidivism as identified from the literature. Implications of incorporating dynamic factors into risk assessments and actuarial measures are discussed.     

Some realities about sprawl and urban decline

Abstract

Many urban analysts believe suburban sprawl has become an important issue because it helps generate two types of problems: growth‐related difficulties like rising traffic congestion, and high concentrations of poor minority households in core‐area neighborhoods. However, a careful regression analysis of measures of both sprawl and urban decline shows no statistically significant relation between these two conditions.

The basic nature of the American urban development process would cause core‐area poverty concentrations even if sprawl were replaced by more compact growth forms. But sprawl does aggravate growth‐related problems. Those problems could be attacked through either alternative overall growth strategies—such as high‐density, tightly bounded growth—or specific anti‐sprawl tactics, such as regional tax‐base sharing and regional coordination of land uses. But no feasible policies are likely either to alleviate traffic congestion much or cause most American regions to abandon sprawl.     

Comment on John T. Metzger's “planned abandonment: The neighborhood life‐cycle theory and national urban policy”

Abstract

I take strong exception to the idea that theories of neighborhood change, in and of themselves, caused the decline of inner cities. Rather, the demographic, social, and economic forces that existed in the postwar years caused some inner‐city neighborhoods to decline. The replacement of working‐class and middle‐income households by households with much lower incomes, on average, was the single biggest cause of neighborhood decline. Metzger ignores this fact as an alternative explanation for why some neighborhoods declined. It is highly implausible that my theories and those of other urban experts had such a strong impact on the public policy, building, and finance communities. Because people were responding to real conditions, it is likely that the same events would have occurred even if my model of neighborhood change had never been developed.