Bayesian Approaches for Limited Dependent Variable Change Point Problems

e-mail: spln{at}mail.rochester.edu Limited dependent variable (LDV) data are common in politicalscience, and political methodologists have given much good adviceon dealing with them. We review some methods for LDV "changepoint problems" and demonstrate the use of Bayesian approachesfor count, binary, and duration-type data. Our applicationsare drawn from American politics, Comparative politics, andInternational Political Economy. We discuss the tradeoffs bothphilosophically and computationally. We conclude with possibilitiesfor multiple change point work. Author's note: This paper is a revised version of my "second-yearpaper" presented to the department in September 2005, and Ithank attendees for feedback. For comments on an earlier draft,I am grateful to Kevin Clarke, David Firth, Jeff Gill, KosukeImai, Tasos Kalandrakis, Andrew Martin, Kevin Quinn, Curt Signorino,Randy Stone, and two anonymous referees. Any remaining errorsand omissions remain mine and mine alone.     

U.S. Treaty Making with American Indians: Institutional Change and Relative Power, 1784–1911

Native Americans are unique among domestic actors in that their relations with the U.S. government involve treaty making, with almost 600 such documents signed between the Revolutionary War and the turn of the twentieth century. We investigate the effect of constitutional changes to the treating process in 1871, by which Congress stripped the president of his ability to negotiate directly with tribes. We construct a comprehensive new data set by digitizing all of the treaties for systematic textual analysis. Employing scaling techniques validated with word‐use information, we show that a single dimension characterizes the treaties as more or less “harsh” in land and resource cession terms. We find that specific institutional changes to treaty‐making mechanisms had little effect on agreement outcomes. Rather, it is the relative bargaining power of the United States economically and militarily that contributes to worsening terms for Indians over the nineteenth century.     

Profiling of illicit fentanyl using UHPLC-MS/MS

Methodology is presented for the profiling of fentanyl in seized drugs using ultra high performance liquid chromatography in combination with tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS/MS). Target analysis was performed for 40 fentanyl processing impurities, several of which are markers for a specific synthetic route (Siegfried or Janssen). For the separation of these solutes, an Acquity BEH C18 1.7 μm particle column (150 mm × 2.1 mm) with a binary 1% formic acid (pH 2.0)/acetonitrile gradient was used. For MS/MS detection, an atmospheric pressure positive electrospray source was employed with selected reaction monitoring (SRM). The coupling of the high separation power of UHPLC with the highly selective and sensitive detection of MS/MS is amenable to the determination of synthetic route and linking of drug seizures. The technology is also applicable to exhibits containing trace levels of fentanyl in the presence of significantly excess amounts of heroin and/or adulterants.     

A review of blunt force injury homicides of children aged 0 to 5 years in bexar county, Texas, from 1988 to 2009

ABSTRACT: It is essential that clinical physicians, medical personnel, medical examiners, and law enforcement agencies understand the types of injuries seen and demographics of children affected by intentional blunt force as this understanding can be crucial to the death and/or criminal investigations. An understanding of the injuries can also assist in drawing conclusions regarding how those injuries could have been sustained. This study discusses the types and patterns of injuries seen in blunt force homicides in children younger than 6 years. The study found that male infants are more often intentionally injured than are female infants and that fatal head injuries most frequently occur in the first year of life, whereas most fatal thoracoabdominal injuries occur in the first 3 years of life. In children with head injuries, subdural hemorrhage was the most common finding, followed by subarachnoid hemorrhage. In 2.5% of deaths due to head injury, concurrent neck injury was seen, a percentage far lower than previous literature would suggest if shaking was the primary mechanism of injury. Twelve legal confessions were also reviewed, none of which disclosed a pure mechanism of shaking the infant.     

Learning under the cross: legal challenges to ‘cultural–religious symbolism’ in public schools

This article examines the nature and scope of the legal challenges mounted against religious symbolism in European public schools. It discusses religion in education and the relationship between Church and State in European societies. The European Court is defining what counts as a religious symbol through a secular lens and while the court upholds the right to hold a religious belief it qualifies this right to manifest belief in public. This article argues that the courts should be more accommodating in their approach towards the public manifestation of religious beliefs and traditions.