Glasgow: Anatomy of a fiscal crisis

Ostensibly, the reorganisation of Scottish local government in 1996 was intended to create a more local, more efficient and more accountable system of local government. However, simultaneously, through grant abatement, the government intensified its fiscal squeeze on local government, seeking in real terms reductions in local authority expenditure. Contrary to assurances from ministers, both developments occasioned disruption for local authorities, with Glasgow in particular experiencing a severe period of fiscal stress. This paper outlines a research framework for identifying potential causal factors behind the acute nature of Glasgow's fiscal crisis, whilst considering the budgetary constraints within which Scottish (and indeed British) local authorities must operate. Finally, it focuses on the impact and resolution of the crisis and highlights the crucial role that the decisions of central government have played in shaping the response of one major local authority.     

Reviews and commentary

Reflections on come retribution

Tossing wins away

William Colby (with James McCargar): Lost Victory: A Firsthand Account of America's Sixteen‐Year Involvement In Vietnam Contemporary Books, Chicago, 1989, 438 p., $22.95.

Deception a la Russe

Brian D. Dailey and Patrick J. Parker, eds.: Soviet Strategic Deception Lexington Books, Lexington, Mass., 538 p., $49.00.

On using mirrors to see others

Roy Godson, ed.: Comparing Foreign Intelligence: The U.S., the USSR, the U.K. &; the Third World Pergamon‐Brassey's, Washington, D.C., 1988, 157 pp., $18.95.

Another look at “Moscow Station”

Ronald Kessler: Moscow Station Charles Scribner's Sons, New York, 1989, 320 p., $19.95.     

Vera Zasulich,the shooting of Trepov and the growth of political terrorism in Russia, 1878–1881

Abstract

This article is an analysis of a trial that has been described as the most momentous in the history of Imperial Russia. In January 1878 Vera Zasulich, later a correspondent of Marx and a critic of Lenin, shot at and wounded Fyodor Trepov, the Governor of St. Petersburg; her trial and acquittal a few months later sparked a wave of political terrorism in Russia that culminated on March 1, 1881 in the assassination of Tsar Alexander II. The article attempts to demonstrate, among other things, that the Trepov shooting was hardly the political act it was perceived to be by contemporaries who were inspired by it to resort to terrorism in an effort to overthrow autocracy. That historians as well have treated the Trepov shooting as “political'’ makes it imperative that this misperception be corrected. The author concludes from a lengthy exploration of Zasulich's motives that, in moral terms, they compare favorably with those of most terrorists today.     

Medical technology in combatting terrorism

State‐sponsored terrorism is a form of coercion, backed up by the threat and use of violence, to achieve political ends. These terrorist tactics also involve signaling of intentions and responses between the terrorist sponsor and those whom it targets. Accordingly this study examines Iranian state sponsorship of anti‐U.S. terrorism in the period of 1980–1990 as an example of political communication aimed at manipulating U.S. policy through the threat and use of violence. Official Iranian media are quantitatively content‐analyzed to demonstrate their systematic use of threat‐projections as warnings and indications to the U.S. in this period.     

Cooperative Study of Sino-Western Universities Report of a Meeting at Sichuan University,March 1988

Abstract

This article examines why and how persistent political fragmentation existed alongside continued centralization in late Qing and early Republican China. By analyzing new archival material and existing scholarship, the piece argues that external intervention helped preserve the viability of a single Chinese state even as the same phenomenon also spurred ongoing fractionalization. Because major powers' governments generally saw China as an area of secondary strategic import, they tried to avoid armed conflict over the polity and seek accommodation. Since outside powers diverged in their objectives, they settled on sponsoring indigenous partners, notably various militarists as well as the Chinese Nationalists, to sustain a degree of central government rule alongside substantial regional autonomy. In re-considering the effects of foreign intervention, this article engages the discussion on political consolidation in the late Qing and early Republic, and suggests that overly stressing integration or division tends to present incomplete accounts of the issue.     

Predatory versus developmental rule in Africa

Political economy predicts that national leaders opt for economic development when institutions encourage them to extend their time horizons. By contrast, leaders turn predatory if they feel at risk. Leaders are most able to bear risk right upon taking office, but this can be offset by a perception of high volatility in office holding or by concern about catastrophic losses. Political institutions can therefore discourage predation by fostering recurrent, predictable replacement of leaders without harsh payback for ex-leaders who acted developmentally. Cataloguing all national leadership transitions in Africa since 1960, the article demonstrates that electoral cycles, term limits and the prospect of judgement before international tribunals have lately led to declines in the volatility of top office holding and in the risk of catastrophic loss to the occupants. These new institutions have yet to establish full credibility, but they show promise of altering African leaders' risk assessments to encourage more developmental rule.     

Modelling Transitions To and From Democracy

This article describes the results of a broad reanalysis of factors shaping the prospects of countries making a transition to or from democracy using a new measure of regime type. While some of the results are consistent with prior quantitative and comparative research, others are not. For example, in line with other studies, the article finds that autocracies are more likely to make a transition to democracy when they offer broader protections for civil liberties, experience a change in political leadership, or suffer an economic downturn. At the same time, the analysis does not support the claim that transitions in neighbouring countries directly improve prospects for a transition to democracy, or that economic decline and presidential systems heighten the risk of democratic breakdown. Perhaps most intriguing, our model of transitions to democracy also identifies a new twist on old stories linking economic development to democratization. For countries under authoritarian rule that have attempted democracy before, the research here indicates that development does improve prospects for another attempt, as modernization theory suggests. For countries with no democratic experience, however, affluence conveys no direct democratizing benefit and appears, if anything, to help sustain authoritarian rule.     

Semiotics and Society

This essay introduces some of the basic concepts that can be used in applied semiotic analysis and discusses the work of some prominent semioticians, such as Ferdinande de Saussure, Charles Sander Peirce, Umberto Eco, and Roland Barthes. Barthes’ book Mythologies is identified as a seminal text in applied semiotic analysis. Marshall McLuhan’s book The Mechanical Bride is discussed as being semiotic in nature, though he doesn’t use the term. The utility of semiotics utility in studying teeth, facial expression and other aspects of people watching and communication is also dealt with.