Calibration procedure and the robustness of CGE models: Simulations with a model for Poland

Calibration is commonly used in order to specify a numerical computable general equilibrium model. As it involves the evaluation of model parameters on the basis of a single observation, there is a concern about the reliability of the results obtained from the model. A one-sector model for the Polish economy is specified and calibrated using various years as a benchmark equilibrium. Different assumptions are also made about some elasticity parameters. The model response is examined by simulating an increase in government expenditure. The results are quite robust to the choice of the base year but very sensitive to some elasticity parameters such as trade substitution elasticities.     

Analyzing Multiple-Item Measures of Crime and Deviance I: Item Response Theory Scaling

Multiple-item measures of self-reported offending typically provide the principal outcome measures for individual level research on the causes of crime and deviance. This article directs attention to the substantial problems presented by the task of forming composite scores for these measures, and it presents a possible solution to those problems. We consider scaling by means of the graded response model from item response theory (IRT) as a potential means of overcoming the shortcomings of traditional summative scaling and of obtaining valuable information about the strengths and weaknesses of our measures. We illustrate this strategy through a scale analysis of a fourteen-item, self-report measure of delinquency, using three years of data from the Monitoring the Future study, an annual national survey of high school seniors. The graded response model proves to be consistent with the data, and it provides results that address important substantive questions about self-report measures. The findings are informative about the strengths and weaknesses of alternative strategies for developing self-report instruments, indicating that there is little to be gained by making fine distinctions in the frequency of individual delinquent acts.     

Building the Evidence Base for Intensive Family Preservation Services

This article examines the state of intensive family preservation services (IFPS) research. Using studies of IFPS in five states, this article seeks to establish whether IFPS can be regarded as an evidence-based practice, an increasingly important standard for publicly funded services. While reporting rates of repeat child maltreatment, the analysis uses placement rates as the main outcome measure and compares effect sizes using Cohen's arcsine transformation for data reported as proportions. Significant differences in rates of child out-of-home placement and repeat maltreatment were found in some studies, particularly for higher risk families. The findings also underscore the difficulty of identifying which families to serve (targeting), ensuring treatment fidelity, and employing rigorous and appropriate evaluation methods. Overall, additional research is needed to move IFPS from a promising practice to an evidence-based practice.     

One Kazak horseman

We are beginning our trip on the Silk Road near Urumqi, northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. If you picture the map of China, you will see a rooster with the beak. We are touring the rooster’s tail area. Our Uygur guide Kalim, says, "Today we’ll visit a Kazakyurtifwecanfindone." There are no yurts-round-like and portable dwellings-in sight here, just small stucco     

Differentiation and survival among North Carolina smallholders: An empirical perspective on the Lenin‐Chayanov debate

This article addresses theoretical issues concerning differentiation and class formation using North American data. It explores how socio‐economic characteristics vary and impact survival in agriculture. The study is based on panel data collected from a sample of smallholders in three Piedmont North Carolina counties. Factor analysis reveals five major dimensions of differentiation: scale, household labour, off‐farm family labour and income, demographic characteristics, and land tenure. An index of propensity to survive in agriculture, constructed from three waves of panel data is regressed upon five indices measuring the underlying dimensions of differentiation. Land tenure manifests a statistically significant net effect on survival in agriculture. These empirical results support theoretical arguments in favour of integrating analyses of socio‐economic and demographic differentiation in the study of agricultural enterprises.     

Group Identity and Alienation: Giving the We Its Due

The purpose of this paper is to argue for greater understanding and valuing of group affiliation and the formation of allegiances to groups during early adolescence. An overemphasis on themes of individual identity, self-reliance, and autonomy as the developmental trajectory of adolescence leads to a lack of attention to the positive, normative mechanisms that permit young adolescents to achieve a sense of belonging and connection. We propose developmental processes which underlie the capacity for reflection about groups, 4 basic components of group identity, and 6 propositions about new capacities that emerge as young adolescents struggle with the dialectic between group identity and alienation. The final section suggests opportunities that can emerge through a more appropriate emphasis on group identity as a valued, normative aspect of development during the early adolescent years.