How useful are psychometric scores in predicting recidivism for treated sex offenders?

This study examined the relationship between psychometric test scores, psychometric test profiles, and sexual and/or violent reconviction. A sample of 3,402 convicted sexual offenders who attended a probation service-run sexual offender treatment programme in the community completed a battery of psychometric tests pre- and posttreatment. Using Cox regression, posttreatment scores on measures of self-esteem, an ability to relate to fictional characters, and recognition of risk factors were, individually, predictive of recidivism. When psychometric tests were grouped into dynamic risk domains, only the pretreatment scores of the domain labelled socioaffective functioning (SAF) predicted recidivism and added predictive power to a static risk assessment. The number of risk domains that were dysfunctional pretreatment also predicted recidivism outcome; however, this did not add predictive power to a static risk assessment tool. Possible explanations for the superiority of pre- over posttreatment scores in predicting reconviction are discussed, and directions for further research considered.     

On urban homicide: A statistical analysis

A statistical analysis is made of homicide rates in the 50 largest American cities for four different years. It is shown that differences in recent murder growth among the cities can largely be explained as typical random fluctuations about a common trend. It is also found that the changing age profile of the American people explains no more than ten percent of the increase in homicide since 1964. Several mathematical models for future homicide growth are proposed from the analysis, and under each the probability of death by murder and corresponding drop in life expectancy are estimated for individuals born now in each of the 50 cities.     

THE EXTENT OF SOCIAL REGULATION: HAZARDOUS WASTE CLEANUP AND THE REAGAN IDEOLOGY

Social regulation resolves the conflict over who will bear the costs of production-related harm to public health, safety, and the environment. The extent of social regulation reflects the political power of affected interests, the economic consequences of control, and the prevailing regulatory ideol- ogy. In this paper, I analyze the impact of the Reagan deregulatory ideology on implementation of the Superfund program to cleanup hazardous waste sites. Itesolution of the conflict over enabling legislation is examined to gauge the relative political power of Superfund Act supporters. Resolution of the ronflict over implementation is examined to determine the extent to which these same political forces limited the success of the Reagan ideology in promoting regulatory inaction.     

Policy-making in a Restructured State: The Case of the 1991 Health Reform Policy in New Zealand

The pressure for efficiency and accountability that led to reform of public institutions worldwide has had implications for public policy-making as well as the management of public services. The difficulties of providing a coordinated and efficient policy process that can respond to the requirements of a more managerialist style of government were evident in New Zealand in the 1980s and early 1990s. The policy process in 1990–91 leading to the introduction of health reform proposals provides an illuminating case study of the tension between participation and speed, and between traditional pluralist and managerialist approaches to policy development. The implications of this for subsequent implementation are discussed.