Acquisitive Crime and Inflation in the United States: 1960–2012

Objectives

Inflation is conspicuous by its absence from recent research on crime and the economy. We argue that price inflation increases the rate of crimes committed for monetary gain by fueling demand for cheap stolen goods.

Methods

The study includes inflation along with indicators of unemployment, GDP, income, consumer sentiment, and controls in error correction models of acquisitive crime covering the period from 1960 to 2012. Both short- and long-run effects of the predictors are estimated.

Results

Among the economic indicators, only inflation has consistent and robust short- and long-run effects on year-over-year change in the offense types under consideration. Low inflation helps to explain why acquisitive crime did not increase during the 2008–2009 recession. Imprisonment rates also have robust long-run effects on change in acquisitive crime rates.

Conclusions

Incorporating inflation into studies of crime and the economy can help to reduce the theoretical and empirical uncertainty that has long characterized this important research area in criminology.

     

Dissecting the Prevalence and Incidence of Offending During the Crime Drop of the 1990s

Objectives

To evaluate whether the 1990s crime drop reflects a decrease in offending prevalence (the fraction of the population engaged in crime), offending incidence (the frequency of offending among active criminals), or some combination of the two.

Methods

We use individual-level longitudinal data on adolescent offending patterns from the Pittsburgh Youth study (PYS), integrating information from the youngest and oldest cohorts to compare offending among 17–18 year old males at the beginning and end of the 1990s. Logistic and negative binomial regression models are estimated to assess whether there are significant differences in offending prevalence and incidence during the 1990s.

Results

The reduction in property crime rates in the PYS sample during the 1990s can be attributed to declines in both offending prevalence and incidence. The overall decline in serious violence during the 1990s for the full sample was primarily the result of a falloff in prevalence. However, for black youth our results indicate significant reductions in both the prevalence and incidence of serious violence. We did not detect a significant difference in illegal drug sales during the period.

Conclusions

Using longitudinal data on individuals to decompose aggregate crime trends into changes in the prevalence and incidence of offending offers insights into the nature of the 1990s crime drop that cannot be discerned from aggregate crime data. Future research should build on the current study by examining the specific mechanisms that influence change over time in crime prevalence, incidence, or both.

     

When Is Science Used in Science Policy? Examining the Importance of Scientific and Technical Information in National Research Council Reports

A frequent lament among researchers is that public policy makers should pay more attention to scientific and technical information (STI). If there is any single area where one might expect STI to be used in public policy making and agenda setting it is in science and technology policy. Many of the policy makers in science and technology policy are themselves scientists or researchers and presumably would prove especially receptive to STI. However, STI is only one of many types of information used in policy making and policy actors often differ in the extent to which they view STI as credible, particularly compared to other types of potentially policy‐relevant information. Research on credibility (the believability of information, information types, and media) has shown variance and policy makers’ “credibility maps.” Thus, some policy makers have preference for formal information generally and STI specifically, but others privilege raw data, personal experience, authority, history and anecdote, analogical reasoning, or conformance to ideology, to name just a few of the information choices. Here, we build on the current researchers’ previous bibliometrics‐based work and use data from 41 semi‐structured elite interviews with National Research Council (NRC) executives and staff and NRC committee members concerning the use of STI in reports issued by the NRC. Findings show that the use of STI in NRC reports varies according to the nature of the inquiry and the sponsor. Information used in the reports is based on not only the assessed credibility of information but also its perceived direct relevance and the availability of STI as compared to other types of information. In general, the amount of STI in the NRC reports tends to have modest effects on the likelihood that reports will be used in policy making or by the mass media. More important factors include the timing of the report with respect to political agendas, the party requesting the report, and the enacted roles of NRC staff members and committee chairs.