Governing the future: the European Central Bank’s expectation management during the Great Moderation

Abstract

The experience of the global financial crisis has sparked renewed interest in the role of futurity in the capitalist economy in general and in the formation and coordination of expectations under uncertainty in particular. Economic sociologists have carefully studied the ‘defuturizing’ technologies devised by private actors, but have tended to neglect the increasingly pivotal part played by central banks. Political economists have had more to say on central banks, but have focused on institutional issues rather than on the concrete practices of central banking. Making an original contribution to both literatures, this paper traces the construction and subsequent evolution, up to 2007, of the European Central Bank’s communicative apparatus. Drawing on official documents and on interviews with both ECB staff and market participants, the paper shows how this apparatus created the conditions for the formation and coordination of private sector expectations. The insights from this empirical analysis into the performative dimensions of ‘credibility’ and ‘knowledge’ in monetary governance contribute directly to ongoing debates about the recent extension of the ECB’s communicative apparatus through forward guidance and quantitative easing.     

Constructing a Rogue State: American Post-Cold War Security Discourse and North Korean Drug Trafficking*

Through an analysis of government reports, political testimony, influential periodicals and interviews, this paper holds that claims of North Korean drug trafficking and producing are greatly exaggerated. An assessment of the 1999 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, 1999 North Korea Advisory Group Report, 2000 International Crime Threat Assessment, and 2004 United Nations Report on World Drugs, among other sources, reveals only inconclusive and anecdotal support for the contention that North Korea is a drug state. This lack of reliable intelligence allows American security analysts to construct North Korea as a drug sponsoring country, making the “truth” about North Korea's relationship to drugs come from endless repetition rather than sustained analysis. As a result, US approaches towards security and drug policy in the region need to be reexamined and contextualized.

The dominant definition of a problem acquires, by repetition, and by the weight and credibility of those who propose and subscribe it, the warrant of “common sense.” (Stuart Hall1 ^?1 Stuart Hall, Culture, Society, and the Media (New York: Routledge, 1989), p. 82. )     

Raising household saving: does financial education work?

This article highlights the prevalence and economic outcomes of financial illiteracy among American households, and reviews previous research that examines how improving financial literacy affects household saving. Analysis of the research literature suggests that previous financial literacy efforts have yielded mixed results. Evidence suggests that interventions provided for employees in the workplace have helped increase household saving, but estimates of the magnitude of the impact vary widely. For financial education initiatives targeted to other groups, the evidence is much more ambiguous, suggesting a need for more econometrically rigorous evaluations.     

Examining the moderating role of family cohesion on the relationship between witnessed community violence and delinquency in a national sample of adolescents

Witnessed community violence has been linked to a number of internalizing and externalizing problems in adolescents. Guided by Cicchetti and Lynch's (1993) ecological-transactional model, this study aimed to examine the impact that family-level factors had on negative outcomes associated with witnessed community violence. Using a nationally representative sample, we explored the moderational role of family cohesion in the relationship between witnessing community violence and delinquent behavior while taking demographic variables into account. Results from the investigation suggested that low levels of family cohesion were predictive of delinquency after controlling for race, gender, past delinquency, and direct trauma. In addition, the findings suggested that family cohesion moderated the impact of witnessed community violence on future delinquent behavior. Future directions for research and implications for practice were also discussed.     

The legal status of abortion in the States if Roe v. Wade is overruled

This article explores the legal status of abortion in the States if the Supreme Court overrules Roe v. Wade, 410 U.S. 113 (1973), and Doe v. Bolton, 410 U.S. 179 (1973), as modified by Planned Parenthood v. Casey, 505 U.S. 833 (1992). Although an overruling decision eventually could have a significant effect on the legal status of abortion, the immediate impact of such a decision would be far more modest than most commentators on both sides of the issue believe. More than two-thirds of the States have expressly repealed their pre-Roe laws or have amended those laws to conform to the trimester scheme of Roe v. Wade, which allows abortions for any reason before viability and for virtually any reason after viability. Those laws would not be revived by the overruling of Roe. Only a few of those States have enacted post-Roe laws that would prohibit most abortions if Roe were overruled. Slightly less than one-third of the States have not expressly repealed their pre-Roe laws. Many of those laws would notbe effective to prohibit abortion if Roe were overruled either because they allow abortion on demand, for undefined reasons of health or for mental health reasons; because enforcement would be precluded on state constitutional grounds; or because the pre-Roe laws prohibiting abortion have been repealed by implication with the enactment of post-Roe laws regulating abortion. In sum, no more than eleven States, and very possibly as few as eight, would have laws on the books that would prohibit most abortions if Roe were overruled.     

Understanding China's Court Mediation Surge: Insights from a Local Court

This article seeks to understand how reported mediation rates in Chinese courts are produced and what they actually signify. It analyzes data obtained through prolonged fieldwork at a court in central China. The article finds that the court has directly responded to central level mediation incentives by enhancing its overall mediation rate. It has done so strategically by seeking the highest increase using the fullest discretion in the mediation incentive structure and seeking to optimize the highest rate at the lowest cost and risk to the court. This has undermined the objectives of the central level incentives toward mediation, while also drawing the courts' scarce resources away toward unnecessary mediation practices, in part far removed from the courtroom. The article concludes by drawing out broader theoretical conclusions about how information asymmetries, discretion, and goal displacement play out in hierarchical control structures of authoritarian courts.     

Entomological and Cardiologic Evidence of Time Since Death in Short Postmortem Intervals

Estimating the time since death of the deceased is a main goal in forensic investigations, but this can be challenging due to contradictory results derived from different investigations at the scene of death. We present a case of a 78‐year‐old woman, found dead in a small forest with broad‐leaved trees, whose husband had a history of domestic violence. Routinely performed investigations, such as postmortem rectal temperature and lividity, yielded inconsistent time since death results between only a few and longer than 20 h. This difficulty was most likely caused by high ambient temperatures of up to 38.0°C, which negatively influenced the informative value of the applied nomogram method. Additionally, performed entomological investigation of fly maggots (Lucilia illustris) recovered from the corpse and the assessment of heart pacemaker data revealed consistent and incontrovertible results. The presented case highlights the benefits of information provided by entomological investigations and data evaluation of cardiac implantable electronic devices and the combined use of the two techniques.     

Investigating the demographic and attitudinal predictors of rape myth acceptance in U.K. Police officers: developing an evidence-base for training and professional development

Efforts to understand rape myth acceptance (RMA) as a cognitive framework in police, unifying key cognitive/attitudinal and demographic factors into one coherent model, are lacking. Using a cross-sectional survey design, predictors of RMA were assessed by linear hierarchical regression, including demographic (age, length of service, gender, experience of specialist rape investigation training) and attitudinal factors (hostility towards women, sexist attitudes, and explicit power/sex beliefs) among officers from a large U.K. police force (N = 912). The final model explained 44% of variance in RMA. Gender and previous specialist training significantly predicted RMA, but to a much lesser extent than attitudinal variables, which explain 42% of RMA variance. Only specialist rape investigation training remained significant when attitudinal variables were added. The greater contribution from attitudinal variables suggests that efforts to address RMA in officers must consider the broader attitudinal structures underpinning RMA. Findings highlight implications for evidence-based training for rape investigators.