A Universal Test of an Expected Utility Theory of War

Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman's version of an expected utility theory of war has become one of the most widely cited theories of international conflict. However, the testing of the theory has lagged behind its theoretical development. In its most sophisticated formulation, the theory has been tested on only 707 dyad-years, all drawn from Europe between 1816 and 1970. We present a test of the expected utility theory of war (as developed in War and Reason ) on the international system from 1816 to 1984. Specifically, we examine the relationship between the main equilibrium variables derived under the "domestic variant" of the international interaction game and behavioral outcomes using multinomial logit. We find that the equilibria correlate with actual behavior in both the set of all dyads and a subset of politically relevant dyads, even after including a set of control variables. The relationship is somewhat less clear among the population of all interstate-directed dyads, however, with key equilibrium variables having smaller effects at increasing the odds of interstate conflict among all dyads. We also present a new software program, EUGene , which generates expected utility data and can serve as an important data management tool for international relations researchers.     

Positive identification of cremains recovered from an automobile based on presence of an internal fixation device

We report on the use of a surgically implanted device, an EBI osteostimulator, as a means of establishing the identification of a homicide victim. The use of such an appliance for securing positive identification has not been previously reported. Additionally we stress the importance of intensive and accurate excavation at scenes involving intense burning where the potential for non-skeletal contaminants is high.     

The differentiation of traumatic and heat-related fractures in burned bone.

Interpretations of antemortem and perimortem trauma are complicated when dealing with cases involving extreme exposure to fire. This investigation attempts to discern the signatures of perimortem trauma from heat related trauma. Femora of domestic pig, sus scrofa, with minimal soft tissue and articulated patellae were subjected to varying traumatic forces. Skeletal elements were impacted with blunt and sharp forces, cut with varying instruments, subjected to torsional forces of shot. Bones were burned in various situations in conjunction with Knox County Rural/Metro Fire Department training exercises conducted in Knox County, Tennessee. Following recovery, fragments were subjected to radiographic, macroscopic, and microscopic analyses. Skeletal elements were reconstructed to permit accurate comparison with pre-fire visual records. In addition, fracture surfaces were examined under both transmitted light and scanning electron microscopy in an attempt to discern surface signatures of the causal fracture (trauma, heat, or situational). Results indicate that signatures of sharp force trauma remain evident following incineration. Furthermore, radiopaque spatter was not observed in any shot specimen. However, these initial findings suggest that the interpretation of blunt force and torsional trauma requires a rigorous examination and comparison of fracture patterns in conjunction with surface morphology.     

Lloyd George, Curzon and the Control of British Foreign Policy 1919-22

This article revises the accepted narrative about British foreign policy in the aftermath of the First World War, which portrays the Foreign Secretary and Foreign Office as subservient to a dynamic and interventionist Prime Minister inthe formulation of foreign policy. It argues that the relationship between Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary, Lord Curzon of Kedleston, was far more complex than that suggested by the historical consensus, shaped, in part, by David LloydGeorge's political opponents and Curzon's enemies. Comparisons are drawn between Curzon's influence over policy towards specific geographical areas, and between Curzon's experiences under Lloyd George and his eventual successors as Prime Minister, Andrew Bonar Law and Stanley Baldwin.