A taxonomy of runoff methods

We look at ways of classifying runoff methods in terms of characteristics such as number of rounds, rules used to determine which candidates advance to the next round, and rules which determine the final winner. We also compare runoffs and so-called instant runoffs such as the alternative vote.     

论合法性与政治协商

本文主要的意图是根据对卢梭、罗尔斯和西耶斯等理论的分析,探讨合法性基础的建构问题。作者认为,作为合法性基础的不是每个人的确定性意志,而是他们决定意志的过程,即政治协商的过程。虽然协商理论仅仅提供了一种不完善的、尽可能合理地做出决策的方式,但是,这种过程使理性结果的实现更加可能。     

Fatal hemorrhage from a periumbilical wound: Stabbing or hemorrhage from a caput medusae?

Varices are the main clinical manifestation of portal hypertension, and their bleeding is the predominant cause of mortality from this condition. Periumbilical varices are known as “caput medusae.” Reports of their bleeding are rare, with only three fatal cases described in the literature. The antemortem diagnosis is relatively simple, while the postmortem diagnosis is more complex. This paper is the first report of fatal hemorrhage from a caput medusae for which the diagnosis was made postmortem, thanks to a complete diagnostic process including scene and circumstances, medical history, and autopsy with detailed histology. The circumstantial analysis showed the presence of a large amount of blood at the scene, blood which originated from a small abdominal wound; an analysis of the subject's clinical data reported that he was affected by portal hypertension. The autopsy revealed some dilated and convoluted veins in the subcutaneous tissue of the umbilical region; a fistula between these veins and the abdominal wound was detected. The histological study confirmed the presence of periumbilical varices, one of them ruptured and connected with the overlying skin. The cause of death was attributed to a massive hemorrhage generated by a periumbilical varix in a patient affected by portal hypertension.     

Self‐Strangulation Through A Sphygmomanometer: An Uncommon Suicide

Suicide by asphyxia is quite a common event in forensic practice and may be implemented in different ways. The authors report a unique case of a 16‐year‐old youth who committed suicide by means of a standard mercury sphygmomanometer. This manner of suicide has never been described in the literature reviewed. A complete forensic investigation led to the conclusion that the cause of death was mechanical asphyxia, ascribed to self‐strangulation by means of an atypical item. The victim suffered from attention‐deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) syndrome and was assisted by support teachers. He had a solitary and depressive personality. The exceptional nature of this case suggests that sphygmomanometers may be regarded as possible means of self‐strangulation. The case also highlights the importance of managing patients with psychiatric or cognitive disorders; indeed, particular caution is required to keep them away from objects that, although apparently harmless, can become lethal.     

Relative Advantages of Person- and Variable-Based Approaches for Predicting Problem Behaviors from Kindergarten Assessments

Kindergarten teacher ratings of physical aggression, hyperactivity,inattention, anxiety, and prosocial behavior were used to predictself-reported delinquency, peer-rated social withdrawal, and schoolplacement in preadolescence (ages 10 to 12 years) in a large longitudinalsample of boys from low socio-economic neighborhoods. Two analyticstrategies were used: person-oriented and variable-oriented approaches. Inthe person approach, eight clusters, based on the kindergarten behaviors,were used to predict delinquency, social withdrawal, and schoolplacement. In the variable approach, the kindergarten behaviors were used asdimensions in logistic regressions. Family adversity was used as the firstpredictor in both approaches; it significantly predicted all the outcomes inpreadolescence. The results obtained using the two approaches were partly inaccordance. In both sets of results, kindergarten teacher-ratedexternalizing behavior problems were most related to later self-reporteddelinquency, and internalizing problems to peer-rated socialwithdrawal. However, the person approach showed that all patterns ofkindergarten behavior problems increased the risk for placement out of anage-appropriate regular classroom, while only inattention and lack ofprosocial behavior were the significant dimensional predictors of thisnegative outcome according to the variable approach. Also, the personapproach showed that the Multiproblem kindergarten boys had the highestpercentage of comorbidity of preadolescent problems. The ROC curvesindicated that prediction of delinquency, social withdrawal, and schoolplacement were equally accurate using the cluster and variableapproaches. Advantages and limits of both approaches are discussed withreference to their usefulness for clinicians.     

Assimilation and contrast effects in voter projections of party locations: Evidence from Norway,France, and the USA

Abstract. In the standard Downsian model, voters are assumed to choose parties based on the extent of ideological proximity between the voter's own position and that of the party. Yet it is also well known that there are rationalization and projection effects such that voters tend to misestimate the policy platforms of candidates or parties to which they are sympathetic by overstating the correspondence between those positions and the voter's own preferences (see, e.g., Markus & Converse 1979; Granberg & Brent 1980; Granberg & Holmberg 1988; Merrill & Grofman 1999). Here we follow insights in the psychological literature on persuasion (Sherif & Hovland 1961; Parducci & Marshall 1962) by distinguishing between assimilation and contrast effects. Assimilation refers to shortening the perceived ideological distance between oneself and parties one favors; contrast refers to exaggerating the distance to parties for which one does not intend to vote. Using survey data on voter self–placements and party placements on ideological scales for the seven major Norwegian parties, five major French parties, and two major American parties we show that both assimilation and contrast effects are present in each country to a considerable degree.We also investigate the possible effects of randomness in party placement and scale interpretation – effects that can easily be confounded with assimilation but not so easily with contrast.     

Strengthening local political leadership through institutional design: how and why

ABSTRACT

Over recent decades, the institutions of political leadership have been criticised for being caught up in outdated designs that are not adapting to societal changes. In many western countries, this diagnosis has spurred design reforms aimed at strengthening political leadership at the local level. Based on a study of reforms in Norwegian and Danish municipalities, this article first develops a typology of reforms aimed at strengthening local political leadership. Leadership reforms are categorised into four types aimed at strengthening Executive, Collective, Collaborative, or Distributive political leadership. The typology is used to map the prevalence of the different types of reforms in the two countries. The results show that design reforms as such are more widespread in Danish than in Norwegian municipalities. In particular, reforms aimed at strengthening Distributive political leadership are used more extensively in Denmark than in Norway. The article discusses the contextual differences that may explain this variation.     

Dynamic ideal point estimation for the European Parliament, 1980–2009

The European Parliament is one of most prominent substantive applications of NOMINATE to the study of roll call voting outside the U.S., yielding tremendous insights into the voting patterns of the world’s most important transnational parliament. However, this body of research cannot facilitate comparisons of ideological shifts over time, because it exclusively employs scaling models that are static. In this paper, I produce dynamic ideal point estimates for the first six European Parliaments from 1980 to 2009 that can be compared over time. These estimates show a significant amount of ideological shifting for some Members of the European Parliament. I explain the measurement strategy, and compare cross-sectional estimates to existing measures as a validity check. I also offer three applications highlighting the types projects that scholars of the European Parliament might wish to use these dynamic measures to study further.